Here is the ES daily wave chart, updated for today's price action. Prices have closed further into the target area and nearer to the local down trend line.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Wave Chart |
Today's higher high ruled out the alternates (only) of a prior top and barrier triangle. Our concern regarding the "micro" wave one shown yesterday proved to be bested by the degree labeling issues it would have created. Here is the SPY 15-min intraday chart.
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| SPY Cash - 15 min - Potential Diagonal |
IFF (if and only if) we are making a diagonal with acceptable measurements, AND there is post-pattern behavior to confirm it, THEN, a down-trending Minor wave 5 might complete an expanding diagonal. The only concern with the above pattern is the expected retraces of 62% did not occur. So we do have one eyebrow raised.
Have an excellent start to the weekend.
TJ
Will this time be different?
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👍 I’ve been waiting to see if we got a weekly close above there and we did. I learned this a long time ago from Larry Williams. It’s 20 for 20 BTW. I have been negative on the market because of the aggressive fed, but I will be a buyer on pullbacks while protecting capital in case this is the first time it breaks the low.
DeleteLogical caveats: 1) ...since WWII, what about before? 2) statement assumes the bear market is over. What if the bear market is only starting?, (in other words the observation might still be correct if started from the actual bear market low - just what if the last low was not 'the' low, and 3) smaller degree expanding leading diagonals have been documented. What if there are larger degree ones?
DeleteTJ
Credit Sprd - update
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A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ