There is one way to count the current uptrend as completed; as minute wave ((c)) of Minor wave 4. That is shown below on the ES daily chart.
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| ES Futures - Daily - 'One Possible' Count Completion |
In this count the entire up wave would have taken 34 trading days, and minute wave ((c)) would be inside of the 1.618 extension on minute wave ((a)), as shown.
One way to continue the count is to take the price action of the prior five days and make a larger running triangle out of it - with a more complex b wave, up.
Note that although there is a doji candle at the high, the daily slow stochastic is still embedded. And a candle pattern is just that. It must be confirmed with a significant lower closing candle without having made a new higher high first to be activated.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
A few risk on measures - current status [if interested] (click to sharpen)
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Addendum: xly/xlp (2x1) - areas of interest
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RTY (dly) - observations
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Thank you TJ - I'm trying to gauge/define parameters for the majors for the remainder of the year and into early 2023.
ReplyDelete-Does wave 5 in an expanding diagonal also need to be longer in time if it meets the size criteria?
-Confirming if the overall structure will be a 5/3/5, granted that the impulse subwaves can also be diagonals.
Thx again and have a good evening.
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Should be.
DeleteYes.
TJ.
SPY cash 15-min: now has also taken out the low of the 'e' wave of the likely triangle (iv)th wave of ((c)).
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TJ.
SPY (30m) - early look
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SPY (2x1) - short term up/down targets
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Correction - up target 424 (not 428)
Deletethe second chart would be more helpful if you could state what the activation levels are for the up/down targets on the charts. Right now, it's just 'data'. TJ.
DeleteMy understanding of horizontal measures is that they are activated at the time of determination, unlike vertical measures that require a high/low to be exceeded.
DeleteTo clarify, if the horiz measure relates to a pattern that has broken out, then it becomes "activated" at that time (it doesnt require a pullback then making a new high as with a vertical). For up/down targets, activation occurs with the breakout of the congestion area. Its my understanding that both the up and down targets could be activated, as with this yield curve chart. It broke up initially, but reversed and broke downward, ultimately reaching the downward target.
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So, as in the case of the yield curve, what calls or 'predicts' the reversal/whipsaw. TJ.
DeleteNot sure if I mentioned here but on 8-2 after hours the 3m/10y inverted but next day it wasn’t inverted. It does not show up in the data though.
DeleteI dont follow. Like any congestion area (horiz channel), what calls or predicts when price breaks out upwards, fails, and breaks down out of channel btm?
DeleteTo my thinking, these targets arent there to "predict" which way price will go, but rather as an area of interest should price move in their direction. Just like a 1.618 fib, there's no guarantee it will be reached, but its a target area to consider should price move in its direction. That's all I have to say on this issue.
SPY - volume indicators to date. Strictly my take, subject to clarification by someone more knowledgeable.
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ES 4-Hr: here is a chart update after the CPI report. It is 'still' a valid x(i) count, though not in a wedge in the futures. Alternation still exists in the impulse.
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Exercise care; nothing says the up wave is over.
TJ
In SPY cash, this 'could be' an exhaustion gap higher, but still, abundant care in wave-counting should be used until/unless five-waves-down are in evidence, and a retrace does not go over the high.
DeleteTJ
Thanks tj,
ReplyDeleteAt the open SPY smacked into the underside of its trend line connecting the 2019 and 2020 peaks. This is the second back test after June's failed back test. Quite a significant trend line it seems!
ReplyDeleteSPX - at this point this rally off the low looks similar to the February low to March high. The presumed wave 2 or X.
ReplyDeleteDJT (dly) channel
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GS - (5x1) Has reached its 2nd target (345). Next up is 360, which, if reached, will result in a breakout of a much larger structure.
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