Wednesday, August 3, 2022

Minimum Minor 4 Diagonal Target Obtained

We have showed on charts for a while now that - if the ES daily futures were to be making an expanding diagonal lower - this up wave would need to get past the minimum level of 4,168.25 (corrected). That level was marked on previous charts, and it is marked on the updated chart below. ES prices today got to 4,170 - meeting the minimum criterion.

ES Futures - Daily - Minimum wave 4 met

We now know that wave Minor 4 has both taken longer in time, and traveled farther in price than wave Minor 2. One can also see that the Elliott Wave Oscillator for wave Minor 4 is higher than that for Minor 2 - that is something I doubt anyone else told you could happen. 

Could Minor 4 be over today? Well, yes, it is possible as the wave would still meet the rules. Still, there are several ways the up wave could continue. Why? Because slightly higher prices might meet the upper descending diagonal trend line and provide a better look to the pattern. Here are the most likely options.

  1. Price is still in a b wave of minuette wave (iv) as a larger flat. Wave (v) to come.
  2. Minuette wave (iv) ended today in a triangle, and today is only wave i of (v).
  3. Minuette wave (iv) is continuing in an expanding triangle; today was wave d.
  4. Wave minuette (v) is making an expanding diagonal.
The four-block below shows some of these ideas in the order above on the cash hourly chart. 

SPX Cash - Hourly - Possible wave (iv)'s


Each of these local counts has it's own strengths and weaknesses. The one I like the least is the contracting triangle; its waves look the lesser developed. Well, this is all part of what I have termed The Fourth Wave Conundrum which happens at every degree of trend.

Of the four, it is likely that the second and fourth chart provide the wave in the wedge look that should have resulted from the extended first wave (i), and the shallow retrace following it.

Have a good start to the evening,

TraderJoe


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28 comments:

  1. DavidAugust 3, 2022 at 7:00 PM

    I may have missed it from the previous posts but how was the minimum level of 4,618.25 determined?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderAugust 3, 2022 at 7:55 PM

      Yep, you missed it. Wave 4 must be > 2. Prior chart on 23 July.

      https://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2022/07/daily-wave-chart-eventual-targets.html

      TJ

      Delete
    2. TjchuckAugust 3, 2022 at 8:07 PM

      TJ,
      I think you mean 4168.25 not 4618.25 above in your post.
      TJchuck

      Delete
    3. Elliott_TraderAugust 3, 2022 at 10:19 PM

      @Tjchuck .. yes, thanks, typo corrected and noted above. TJ

      Delete
  2. GreywaverAugust 3, 2022 at 7:59 PM

    An aside - HSCS - A progression for one of the day's large intraday % gainers -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/58dtqstre1ks925/Bigmover.PNG/file

    ReplyDelete
  3. marcAugust 3, 2022 at 8:49 PM

    Do you no longer look at the ewo traveling greater than 50 percent of lowest prior down wave? Or is that not important in diagonals? 78% would be max I think

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderAugust 3, 2022 at 10:21 PM

      @marc .. the guideline of +10% to -40% is for impulses as per the featured post. In contracting diagonals - with 120 to 160 candles - the EWO contracts also. In expanding diagonals - with 120 - 160 candles - the EWO expands. The shape of the EWO is 'very' important in diagonals. TJ.

      Delete
  4. GreywaverAugust 3, 2022 at 10:14 PM

    AAPL/SPX (wkly) New ATH -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/sodw7dvn8gstnv9/aaplspxwkly.PNG/file

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderAugust 3, 2022 at 10:52 PM

      The commentary on the charts is misleading, at best. AAPL is nowhere near an all-time high.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/CEVZ7bBj/

      Yet, the chart commentary clearly says "stock(s) headed to new all-time high". That is not correct. It is only the manufactured 'ratio' that is at a new all-time high. In other words, AAPL is holding up better than the S&P.

      GW, i) I would prefer that you not post any of the ratio stuff. They are often meaningless in that they only describe what "has happened". ii) I would prefer that you not just 'throw data out there'.. for those "if interested". iii) This site is about Elliott Wave, and related technicals that help support or refute a wave count, like for example if one could help select one of the four cases shown in The Fourth Wave Condundrum - just as an example.

      TJ

      Delete
    2. GreywaverAugust 4, 2022 at 9:57 AM

      Sorry, was only trying to show that AAPL was stronger at this SPX peak than at the Mar SPX peak, even though current SPX peak is much lower. I will hold off on like posts (ratios) going forward.

      Delete
    3. Elliott_TraderAugust 4, 2022 at 10:37 AM

      If it's 'directly pertinent' then no worries about that. TJ.

      Delete
  5. Walter KrajewskiAugust 4, 2022 at 12:56 AM

    Amazing analysts, ET! I learn so much every day(yet still feel like I am at the beginning)

    ReplyDelete
  6. WavRiderAugust 4, 2022 at 8:31 AM

    Great Post TJ, Along the lines I was also thinking before seeing this site. I like 3 and 4 the best. The days of a 4 / 1 cross cancel seem long gone for years now. I think this is a type of w4 wave that should have crossed above 4115 and probably not cross the low of 4223. Then 5=1 around 703 pts lower. Or a double zig zag type of pattern where the first wave down is 1182 pts (big) and we could bounce much higher for a B, then another abc pattern 1100-1200 pts lower! Shorter term, seems like 5 waves up from 3721 and w3 is close to finished or finishes around 4188, then a w4 and w5 around 4209 area.

    ReplyDelete
  7. RobertoAugust 4, 2022 at 9:46 AM

    i like 4 best, oil just cracked support at 92 and I would think it rallies up to test that level while the market makes one more high. thank you.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Elliott_TraderAugust 4, 2022 at 10:39 AM

    Fyi - ES futures have downward overlap on 1-Aug high, 2-Aug high, and there is only one to go at the 3-Aug high. Not fatal, but tells part of the story. TJ.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Elliott_TraderAugust 4, 2022 at 4:12 PM

    Using the futures, 'twas hard to find anything much of significance yet today except that the up wave was longer-in-time than the down wave.

    https://invst.ly/yovh9

    Maybe some clarity will occur in the after-hours or tomorrow.
    TJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderAugust 4, 2022 at 4:27 PM

      p.s. remember this chart type is subject to graphing errors, like gaps that don't actually exist, etc. They are being used to provide a 'general idea'. TJ.

      Delete
  10. GreywaverAugust 4, 2022 at 4:50 PM

    ES - exp diag - times are kinda funky -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/n8gxjh2dby6ycrk/Funkytime.PNG/file

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderAugust 4, 2022 at 5:54 PM

      If you think that's bad (and I do, and I did), it can't be counted that way in cash. Other ideas? TJ.

      Delete
    2. Elliott_TraderAugust 4, 2022 at 6:12 PM

      Best I can tell, cash (very short term time scale) can be counted like this; the contracting counterpart.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/6LUFXggT/

      The need to have a count in cash 'may have' influenced the timing of a very short-term diagonal.

      TJ

      Delete
  11. BBRiderAugust 4, 2022 at 6:49 PM

    We are back to the printing press line. The love affair continues.

    ReplyDelete
  12. GreywaverAugust 4, 2022 at 9:13 PM

    Gasoline - (0.1x1) - dual targets resolved -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/kt7inl07be3uh0n/Dualtargets.PNG/file

    ReplyDelete
  13. manuAugust 5, 2022 at 8:38 AM

    Tj, Why these iv wave so difficult to understand and interpret?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderAugust 5, 2022 at 8:58 AM

      I have said many times, "the market needs a way to survive". If every count was clear and crisp, every trader would get it, and there would cease to be a market." Stop whining and see the chart below - after the employment report.

      TJ

      Delete
  14. Elliott_TraderAugust 5, 2022 at 8:39 AM

    ES futures : 30min, down -30 plus points on August payrolls coming in hot at +528 vs +250 consensus. No doubt about yesterday's leading diagonal. Still. this can just be a 'C' wave lower, perhaps in a larger triangle as sketched out above, or even a larger contracting triangle.

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
  15. Elliott_TraderAugust 5, 2022 at 8:56 AM

    Here are some still-likely possibilities in the hourly futures. 1) Running triangle, 2) expanded flat, 3) expanding triangle. It all depends where that (iii) was, and it is difficult to interpret.

    https://invst.ly/yp37c

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderAugust 5, 2022 at 9:00 AM

      .. and OR DONE with (v) of ((c)) of Minor 4 at the high is also a possibility, but the last one that should be considered as this was a 'news event'. TJ.

      Delete
  16. Elliott_TraderAugust 5, 2022 at 9:38 AM

    A new post is started for the next day.
    TJ

    ReplyDelete

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