The ES four-hour chart of the potential minute ((c)) wave up to potential wave Minor 4 is shown below. The Elliott Wave Oscillator is still in good shape with waves (ii) and (iv) clearly visible at the zero line. And there is currently a divergence for wave (v) with the fifth wave expected to be shorter overall than the third (use OHLC charts for that measurement) because the third wave is shorter than the first.
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| ES Futures - 4 Hr - Close Only |
Note that wave (iii) might be one wave peak to the right, which might also give wave (v) a bit of extra length as well. The notes on the chart explain what is being waited for. Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Thanks!
ReplyDeleteMJ - rising from the ashes? (maybe just a little?)
https://www.mediafire.com/view/fljarf6v8yhrn4n/MJ0.1x1.PNG/file
Regarding buying AAPL. My ex-supervisor bought 2000 shares at $5.00 sometime between 1998 and 2007 and has never sold because his multiple ex-wives would collectively get half. I estimate he has at least 56000 shares and possibly 4x that!
ReplyDeleteVIX (0.25x1) - Update. We now have an upward target (short term at least).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/uw60od9euh1gk6f/vixupdate.PNG/file
bearish divergence forming on the weekly chart. last this this happened was the end of march.
ReplyDeleteI noticed that the built-in AO indicator on tradingview doesn't match the screenshot in this post. Anyone know why?
ReplyDeleteHere is the same chart done in TradingView using the built-in AO indicator. Seems to match pretty well. You'd have to post a chart of what is wrong.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/qeW2KqRj/
TJ
Hi TJ....Is there an AO equivalent on Stockcharts?
DeleteThank you!
Andrew ..Not that I know of. TJ.
DeleteHere is a screenshot showing the AO on the SPX cash 4 hour chart. It doesn't come close nor cross the zero line for waves (ii) and (iv).
Deletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/y7y4cl73n86r3bl/Capture.JPG/file
So, I used 4hr FUTURES, you used 4 hr CASH. That is all the difference. Cash only has 48 candles on the 4 hr chart. The method 'requires' that the 'wave of interest' have 120 - 160 candles. Please see The Featured Post in this blog. It is on the upper right-hand corner of the blog page, titled, "The Eight Fold Path Method for Counting an Impulse". The very first step is to 'select the time frame that provides 120 - 160 candles for the wave of interest'. If that is not done then the AO/EWO will not be able to be interpreted. Hope this helps.
DeleteTJ
Oh I see, thanks. In the screenshot in the original post it says US 500 cash.
DeleteYes. The labeling is a problem with that particular web-site. TJ.
Deletealso note we are right at 160 candles looking at the up wave in the hourly chart
ReplyDeleteGood morning. US housing starts down -9.6%; Building Permits down -1.3%.
ReplyDeleteTJ
ET, How much of that could be seasonal normal? I've always understood spring is most important time for building permits.
DeleteES 1-hr: 'possible' completion count. Watch for break of lower parallel (short term).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/d9b1FUYA/
But caution, one more downward overlap of wave i is also possible with another three-wave sequence upward.
TJ
..another good alternate is just a higher high to make v longer in time. That would place ((A)) at the prior high and we would now be in the ((B)) wave, with a final ((C)) wave up of v to come. TJ.
DeleteMore economic reports:
ReplyDelete09:15 ET: Industrial Production
For: Jul | Trading Impact: Medium | Actual: 0.6% | B.com Forecast: 0.5% | B.com Cons: 0.3% | Prior: 0.0% | Revised From: -0.2% --
09:15 ET: Capacity Utilization
For: Jul | Trading Impact: Medium | Actual: 80.3% | B.com Forecast: 80.4% | B.com Cons: 80.2% | Prior: 79.9% | Revised From: 80.0% --
No weakness seen in this sector.
TJ
FOMC Meeting Minutes today 1CST
DeleteCorrection: FOMC Minutes are tomorrow at 1CST
DeleteSPY 1-Hr testing lower wedge line.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/0Ibu6Byr/
TJ
messy opening on futures but am I imagining a leading diagonal on the 15 minute chart?
ReplyDeleteES/SPY lower low. ES overnight 'can' be counted as a contracting diagonal. This suggests monitoring to see a retrace does not go over the high, but it can be a 'deep' retrace.
DeleteTJ
This comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteTraderJoe - Is there an alternate count that allows for one more high? The reason I ask is looking at prior breakdowns on weekly and monthly charts, the bear market retraces has a tendency to tag the upper weekly 18 period bollinger band. See examples from 2008 vs current in the link below. Many of the Sector Spyders can also 'use' a higher high to tag their weekly BBs.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/cq7aq4m62fq8dsr/Weekly_BB.jpg/file
see below @ 1:38 pm
DeleteTJ
ES 1-hr: over the high again as I said was 'possible'. The long in time wave might be a four and the higher high a five. Let's see if there is a 'turn-on-Tuesday'.
ReplyDeleteTJ
SPY (2x1) 2nd orange target (430) achieved.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/ekaeeknw0zzt4b5/2nd_orange.PNG/file
One of the reasons I've been so cautious (besides how terrible wave 4's can be in potential expanding diagonals) is that for the "upward contracting diagonal wave (v) count, that second wave 'never' made a 62% retrace. I told you at the time I has one eyebrow lifted at that because it is not typical. So, we 'may have' had the running second wave as below.
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_a684d2f1b17d97289f29c9241b554435.png
This would explain the 'length of time' of the overnight fourth wave that I mentioned.
TJ
..also in this count, ((B)) is inside of 1.50%. TJ.
DeleteSPX Cash Daily - cash gap closed as written about in the blog for a potential target.
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_440da3404064e7d965fa34f06158d0d7.png
TJ
SPY cash: 1 Hr (fyi only) - popped over the wedge briefly and now trading under it again. Use a lot of caution. If the high can not be held it's nothing of significance. But it does 'look' good.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/W74NaDco/
TJ
Sorry about the mess I use this mostly on 15min but I zoomed out on SPX we just hit upper boundary of downtrend line.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ddQ0GI1L/.
Also interesting read about OPEX week
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nomura-warns-weeks-opex-real-massive-amount-delta-could-spark-de-risking-flow