These expanding patterns off the high can be nasty; if they are made of three-wave sequences, they can fool anyone into thinking a long sideways triangle is in progress - until they break down. The difference being in this case, that those claiming a sideways triangle pattern were ignoring the extreme retraces inside of a triangle. There were double-bottoms and greater than 90% retraces. Most often contracting triangles have retraces that are in the range of 78.6% - 80% max. Here is the SPY hourly chart.
So, we know the SPY made a marginal higher high than wave minute ((iii)) for minute ((v)). But, we also know that the ES futures did not. Since ES might be a minor truncation, we have labeled the high as Minor A or top. Literally the only thing that matters right at this moment is whether the "prior low" holds or not. The five down waves can be an minute ((a)) wave, or they could be a ((i)) wave.
And, yes, the waves (i) to (v) could also be the cousin triple zigzag (w) to (z) of a Minor B wave complete or near complete depending on the CPI report tomorrow morning.
Currently the wave structure is below the prior minute ((iv)) wave. If the wave is a top then it is likely the end of the flat wave from the prior downward structure and a larger impulse lower would begin. If it is the Minor A wave, then after the B wave, there could be a C wave up to make a zigzag for a wave (2) in a larger diagonal. Or, we could go over the all time high again. Be patient. Follow and count the waves. Try it for yourself. You will definitely learn a thing or two.
Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
👍 thanks. It’s looking like the fib turn date came a day early. Unless CPI surprises tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteSPY 1D Bearish Count - https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/976454973355360286/984576340000899072/Screenshot_2022-06-09_at_23.54.43.png?width=1127&height=630
ReplyDeleteNope. Too complex, and not valid in many other ways. David, you 'need' to read The Rules and Guidelines in The Elliott Wave Principle, and follow them. I never publish a wave count that is illegal under them
DeleteTJ
SPX (cash) (25x3) - Current look
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_874d1069834c7c10415928d127de90e2.png
SPX (10m) - above & below
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/28m9yg3wccp9a9d/above%2526below.PNG/file
CPI comes in hotter than expected. Watch the retrace levels (62 & 78%) and the low.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Oil may be impulse with a abc finishing this morning. No one I can see is expecting prices to go down "any time soon". Good luck all
ReplyDeleteActually Carter Worth (CNBC) said that according to his charts, going forward, Energy should under-perform the S&P. This was a week ago. So far, he has been incorrect for 5-7 trading days. Not the end of the world but that's where wave counting helps.
DeleteTJ
Ah thanks, I looked at interviews from this week. None I saw thought we'd pullback. They may be right but at least I'll know where I'm wrong.
DeleteSPY 1-Hr: well past 62%, with 78% next up.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/64QoHwD8/
Just be aware the overnight sideways wave does not show up anywhere so we might have to be on watch for this wave down to be a whippy 'b' wave that could come back up over (v). It does not have to happen that way, just be aware of the potential.
TJ
FWIW, today was my second best trading day of the year. I assumed a high probability H&S pattern in NDX with a downside TQ target of around 250. While I was prepared for some pain with what I thought would be a C wave up out of a B wave triangle of some kind, to my great surprise the pattern broke to the downside. Thanks to T.J, Greywaver and other blog participants for the real-time commentary and analysis. Enjoy your week-end all!
ReplyDeleteSPX - IFF we break the lows, is 3505 a likely target next?
ReplyDelete3500 is also where the weekly 200 ma is.
Deletehourly bars after first one today on es/spy are different/manipulated. drastic reduction in volatilty. appears to me that someone matching selling pressure with just enough buying power to create artificial floor, hoping that others jump onboard. conspiracy theory. probably going to work
ReplyDeleteES 2-Hr: this is the best I can do with the waves we have. I don't see a degree violation at this time. Minute ((iii)) / ((c)) is less than minute ((i)) / ((a)) in price and time. Nothing says the downside is over. Art Cashin likes to say "significant declines don't usually end on a Friday."
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/eHwqgUWR/
TJ
counts become clear after destination is revealed. The goal is having a reservation in the right locale. I've had a room booked at 3600 easy street for a while. It may be time to book another one at 4500 diagonal terrace apartment W2 which has very cheap room rate right now.
ReplyDeleteWhat reservations you make are your business. I'm just the hotel janitor posting maps of the fire exits.
DeleteTJ
Nice ET, give me a minute to figure out if that's really what you are doing thanks
Delete