Overnight, the market made a 62% retrace in the futures and overlapped the price highs from Friday & Sunday / Monday. Not a lick of it in the cash SPY, yet. So, that seems to leave the situation below, where the black count indicates minute ((ii)) would be unfinished.
Yet, it is possible to note that there might be a flat wave from Friday where red (c) = 2.00 x red (a). That leaves the possibilities as follows: 1) a further impulse up, 2) a further diagonal up, 3) a further flat, up, or 4) a finished flat and done.
Having a finished minute ((ii)) at last night's high would only be a 23.6% retrace on the prior 4-hr down wave, and it seems short in both price and time. But it is not entirely outside of the probability space for a crash wave. That would be choice #4, above.
Choice #3, above, allows for a lower low - perhaps by a fair amount - and allows minute wave ((ii)) to extend in both price and time. The lower lows might be a trap in that case, so exceptional caution and patience is urged.
Have an excellent start to the day.
TraderJoe
my count is also like this - I think we go up this morning when Powell starts talking.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-futures-market-rallies-tesla-spikes-as-fed-chief-powell-looms/ Also, Oil is close to it's bear flag target. thanks for the post
ES (2hr) - A "W" with a twist - fwiw
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ES (5x3) update -
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The TTBO was triggered, with the "tail" preceding, suggesting a more bullish pattern due to the "tail" (per A.W. Cohen).
DeleteES higher high. Can be (iii) or (c). Flexibility is key 🗝️.
ReplyDeleteQuite a precise spring board for SPY this morning off the weekly BB. This also coincides with the 0.38 retrace of the up move from the lows. Interesting level to keep an eye on.~370.70
ReplyDeleteES (2hrs) Further observations
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ReplyDeleteWTI (1x3) Update -
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WTI (wkly) - To monitor
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ES (5x3) New DTBO, leaving bear trap. But retesting prior peak.
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_c0c28e6d2cf1cf0bd7f0b08855345002.png
Have exceeded prior peak. 👍
DeleteES (5x3) early signs of weakness
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Market is so quiet, I know in bull markets you don't short a creeping market, but in bear markets you don't long creeping markets?
ReplyDeleteSPY 15 min proposed count. exp flat? https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FV4HjvjWAAAW0up?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
ReplyDeleteGC (2day) - Looks vulnerable
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A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ