Wednesday, June 22, 2022

Ran into Some Resistance (Prior Support)

Price today reversed slightly higher from overnight levels in the wake of FED Chair Jerome Powell's comments. Still, after the new high, price movement was not very dynamic. Based on the ES 4-Hr futures, below, price ran into some prior support which became resistance and gave up the climb higher for the day. Price could find ways to extend the local uptrend.


As shown the upturn from the minute ((i)) wave is still quite short in both time and price. While the prior fourth wave, ivmight be all of the story, a case can be made for additional upside movement from the lower time-frame counts. Confusing the issue is the fact that the futures traded down last night and overlapped the prior high. Cash did not. Remember that structures like diagonals and triangles are certainly possible to extend the duration of an upturn. It is possible with the overnight overlap that the ES futures are trying to make one of those patterns.

And while we will continue to monitor the situation, additional wave structure is needed. We do note that the Elliott Wave Oscillator was able to get itself back into positive territory, albeit weakly.

Have an excellent start to your evening,

TraderJoe

29 comments:

  1. 1.618 from your larger nested count looks correct for next target, about 3488, also where 200ma is on weekly. Thanks very much

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  2. ES (5x3) - update

    https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_3496756d0a81373a5f823ab5a0bb5fba.png

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  3. Jobless claims at 830am and Powell speaking at 10am. Could be a whipsaw kinda day

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  4. ES 2-Hr: Pattern to consider if higher highs are made.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/f3Jjyhum/

    TJ

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    1. SPY 15-min: IFF a higher high could be made, then it might be possible to even out cash and futures in the following way.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/5TxcU6rK/

      Patience.

      TJ

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    2. ..cash now above prior ((D)) wave. TJ.

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  5. GOLD - long term (log scale) - Am I way off base here?
    Thanks

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/vl751g7ikhzi4xk/GoldLT.PNG/file

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  6. SPY 15-min: now possibly a larger triangle; and maybe more symmetrical.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/RX3NWRNl/

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. ...or possibly the triangle is a (b) wave, with the (a) wave completed earlier. Stay flexible and patient. TJ.

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  7. RBOB - (0.025x3) - update

    https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_de0d738aaaa0870c9fb21edb46f8c019.png

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    Replies
    1. Fed gas tax is $ .184/gal. State taxes vary (Calif about $ .67/gal, Mo about $ .175/gal). Then you've got refinery base cost (which depends on their crack costs), then transportation from refinery to outlets (convenient stores, etc). [There may also be gouging in some areas]. This is why gas varies so widely depending upon where you're located. Having worked for a jobber in Ks (state tax is $ .24/gal), stores on border in Missouri were about 7 cents cheaper just due to state tax. A lot of factors go into price of gas across the country. Fwiw.

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  8. SPY 15-min: several possibilities remain, including 'c' a little lower.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/0iEUG70r/

    TJ

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  9. just saw the triangle, looks good now that there's been no follow through with the selling.

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    Replies
    1. welp, looks like B now. C tomorrow?

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    2. in the 'barrier triangle' variety waves 'b' and 'd' can be 'about equal' height. We'll see. Can still degrade into the red Flat if it wants. TJ.

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  10. NazComp - BPIs (PnF/Line) - Something to keep an eye on

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/3m1zseb73hzofxc/bpis%25284%2529.PNG/file

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    Replies
    1. After today, OEX, NDX, SPX, Dow now on Bull Alert (BPIs)

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  11. ES (5x3) update -

    https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_62ada1e99f8b8f9d95667d7582798841.png

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  12. TLT (2day) early signs - (click to sharpen)

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/rwfkumhjywzu0bp/TLTlearlysigns.PNG/file

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  13. ES (5x3) Morning look -

    https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_8ece5cff413a863b04516e46df6a3487.png

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    1. ES (2hr) Gap area just above -

      https://www.mediafire.com/view/8fr176qbsicslu3/es2hrgap.PNG/file

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    2. 👍 your chart appears to be 5 waves off the bottom

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    3. ES (2hr) - Possible?

      https://www.mediafire.com/view/c5ypracwz1rogt2/ES2hrd.PNG/file

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  14. WTI (1x3) Possible bear flag -

    https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_47f2ac541981d737557c2367f5c91330.png

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