Including yesterday's Doji candle, we can count only a 5-3-5 downward, so far, with the ISM - Manufacturing report due out tomorrow. In an earlier draft I had expected the Payroll Employment Report due tomorrow - first Friday in the month - but I see it is being delayed a week. The 5-3-5 from the potential minute ((ii)) is shown in the ES 2-Hr chart below.
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| ES Futures - 2 Hr - Before Payroll Report |
The intraday count very much depends on whether new highs or new lows are made from here. Either is plausible as of today. It is possible/probable today's move up to 3,825 is also another five-wave sequence higher, but it is not labeled pending confirmation. If so, a zigzag or more upward might be forming.
Of importance, the (a) wave up, has been overlapped lower, making a five-wave-sequence up from the low on this chart much, much less likely.
On the daily chart, the price bias remains lower as price is below the 18-day SMA, and the daily slow stochastic is traveling sideways although it remains marginally crossed lower.
Remember that today is the end of the month and tomorrow is the first trading day of a new month and possibly the quarter depending on company, exchange and pension fund calendars.
Have an excellent start to your evening.
TraderJoe
ES 15-min: so far there is a 'trading range' box, with a probable larger a-b-c zigzag in black. Within the box 5-3-5 can be counted. Alternation is impulse-b-diagonal. Diagonal can be ending (more probable), or leading. So, watch for breakout/breakdown direction of box.
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TJ
Price is testing the upside of the range.
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A new post is started for the next day.
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