Saturday, June 25, 2022

Plausible with Better Fibo's

When out of the 'heat-of-battle' it's a good time to review counts and look for the best Fibonacci ratios. While we have been counting the minute ((ii)) wave upward, the expanding wedge is still on the table. The alternative for the ES 2-Hr chart, below, is a simpler (a), (b), (c) wave of this type.


If we are making the zigzag in a parallel, then these types of waves often burn out around 1.272 - 1.618 times wave (a) for the length of the (c) wave. In this case, the overlapping waves are the (b) wave in a triangle fashion.

Have an excellent rest of the weekend.

TraderJoe

46 comments:

  1. ES (5x3) - the confluent math -
    https://www.mediafire.com/view/bxznqsgjxt5yo1c/Confluence.PNG/file

    ES (2hr) - a possible path(s)
    https://www.mediafire.com/view/tj6hbmrqjyq5fuv/extensions.PNG/file

    Should price go higher, adjustments accordingly. Assumptions noted.

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    1. Two salient items about this post:
      1. If the higher targets are met, they would likely invalidate minute ((ii)).
      2. An 'expanding bottom' is not a recognized terminal in either Prechter or Neely's Elliott Wave. An expanding bottom would likely be an expanding triangle and there is almost always a wave that follows it, either (c) or (v).
      TJ

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    2. As far as I can tell, the limit on wave minute ((ii)) is likely 4,034 - 4,035.
      TJ

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    3. Even ignoring the broadening bottom pattern, the horizontal PnF measure remains (as long as its low is note exceeded). As price continues, it may well be that add'l vertical/horiz targets become confluent with the 4150 target (though not necessary). This is not to imply that the horiz 4150 target will be reached, but rather to show how it might be should it occur.

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    4. Correction - note s/b not :o)

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    5. DJI - what I view as a broadening top/btm

      https://www.mediafire.com/view/8643gbigvrlyie7/Broadening.PNG/file

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    6. Looks like an exp. flat to me (fwiw).

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    7. It is 'very' in the rear-view mirror. The simple RSI divergences at the highs are more effective in real-time. TJ.

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    8. Keep in mind, this pattern was on the PnF chart, which can "distort" time seen on a bar chart, and depending upon box size, will most likely not show true highs/lows. Different animal. But the broadening (expanding) pattern remains. The whole point of the post was simply to show how price [might] reach the 4150-4160 area, and by what extension depending upon the depth of a retracement (assuming retrace is to start from current peak, and that move up was/is expanding diag).

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    9. ..then you have the issue of that 'bottom' trend line. Only two points from which to draw the trend line immediately after the high was formed? If you look, there were 'two points' earlier which could have defined the lower trend line (incorrectly) at the time. Sorry, I'm not buying it. TJ.

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  2. OLLI (dly) - a case study

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/j0i0tc1uy2ni9fa/ACaseStudyRS.PNG/file

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    1. Thank you for publishing this chart. I see strength in volume and price with a brick wall of price support in the 75 to 77 area. Missed earnings report and make a +24% jump in 13 days off the 50 ma hmm. I'll keep watching.

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  3. DJP/AGG (0.5x3) - 1st sell signal

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/wly2dbvwef47ao4/DJPAGG_0.5x3.PNG/file

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  4. ES (2day) - estimated levels

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/1mbnkeb8lsh3929/Crossovers.PNG/file

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    1. Thanks Grey! If I read the chart correctly, it suggests a iii of 3 of (3) should start in the next few weeks to prevent a degree violation. It should be a doozy, if it happens. Two questions:

      What's the alternative in your opinion?
      What's the target range for Wave (3)? Taking 1.61 extension of (1) and 1 gives me range of about 2850 to 3450, which is quiet large..

      Thanks again
      -TJ

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    2. Oh, and most importantly,1 is longer in size than (1) for ES. Degree violation?

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    3. This is a just a steal of my post on 18 Jun. TJ.

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    4. Actually not a "steal", but rather a clarification. If you look closely at your post of 18th, the channel is not drawn to connect the origin of 1 to 2. This changes the upper TL of the channel that determines the violation of ((ii)). Also, I just wanted to show how the violation level changes with time, which was not shown on your 18th post. That's all that was intended, wasn't posting as a "count". You already did that.

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    5. No. The violation of ((ii)) is given by the length of 2. Neely 'suggests' that the 0 - 2 trend line not be violated in wave 3. But nowhere is it stated as a 'rule'. It is more of a 'charting instruction' the way it is phrased. Therefore, if it 'pips over' the trend line, maybe doesn't close there, or if it closes once over the trend line and then immediately closes back under it, without violating the price length or time length of 2, I will consider it acceptable from a degree labeling viewpoint.

      TJ

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    6. Thanks for the clarification. I don't recall this being pointed out in the past regarding nested 2nd waves, but perhaps I just missed it.

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    7. Let me also add the clarity that to chart as Neely does, one has to 'follow' all of his charting tenets, including 1) plotting only the high and low of the period in the order they occur (p2-8), 2) only plotting 'cash' data, not futures, due to 'time decay' (p2-9), 3) only having a specified number of points on the chart (p3-5), 4) beginning a new trend only when a 'faster' wave occurs off the top or bottom, 5) wave 3 not violating a line from 0-2, etc. etc. Not all of this is being done - except watching the speed off the tops or bottoms - because of the 'cost of the data overhead'. It is an enormous burden to keep up even one instrument's chart in that fashion day in & day out. Meanwhile, the 'definition' of degree, that ((ii)) should not be larger in price or time than 2 is 'relatively simpler' to apply - even though some EW chartists violate it every time.

      Therefore, while I am a 'big proponent' of the 0 - 2 trend line application, and more so than most, I still use it with a small amount of flexibility because it is stated as a 'should' and not a 'must'. And he specifically refers to it in the case of the 1.618 3rd wave, and not in the case of the extended 1st or the extended 5th. I hope this helps.

      TJ

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    8. Thanks! Can you clarify the following as well. I just want to be sure I'm using the proper measure. Thanks again.

      https://www.mediafire.com/view/wudy0l8hiyfazh8/ESlengthoftravel.PNG/file

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    9. There are technically two operating definitions. a) the 'net distance traveled in an expanded flat' is from 3 to 4, say. And this has been used to roughly compare to wave 2, and b) the 'maximum excursion' or total travel in wave ((c)) of 2, the largest wave in an expanded flat. For the purposes of degree comparison, since wave ((c)) of 2 is the 'largest wave in the prior (upward) direction, then that is the measure I use. I could be wrong, but I can't find it defined so simply elsewhere.

      TJ

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    10. So along those lines, how would this thinking apply to a triangle (contracting and running)?

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    11. Wave 5 doesn't compare to a triangle 4. It compares to waves 1 & 3. And wave C doesn't compare to a triangle B. It compares to wave A. The question is 'largely' irrelevant for triangles because triangles usually oppose the direction of the motive waves. No more on this topic now. TJ.

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  5. RTY (10x3) - current look going into trading this week

    https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_efeea4880fb96283dfa47b1cd97a4ea6.png

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  6. 1st Half - courtesy of free email

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/zgj3n6hl9jinm3a/FirstHalf.PNG/file

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  7. ES (2hr/8hr) 2 views -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/mnaf4uvphmyjwlt/ES2views.PNG/file

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  8. ES (5x3) Late look -

    https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_c5a90cdb777acb5d2b44ee6c567346ff.png

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  9. ES (5x3) Early morning look -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/xckzciukp4wdn1x/es5x3bpr-overlay.png/file

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  10. Good morning all. Looks like we are getting a fourth wave in some form - probably expanded flat (ES 2Hr).

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/wAmtg9um/

    TJ

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  11. RTY (10x3) - target area reached
    https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_dcb1f9e3979662e5b8e1370737b2b661.png

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  12. TNX (0.10x3) - Once you've learned these, they're hard to "unsee". (Perhaps you can see how they could be incorporated into any TA methodology.) [If interested]

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/mid87bmo0wrv05o/TNX.PNG/file

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  13. SPY 3-min: cash has gotten itself into gear with the ES futures as far as a potential 'Flat' wave goes. Very choppy down, so far. That might change.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/kIyV7GWJ/

    TJ

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    1. p.s. I would watch that 389.38 level in cash, and the upper parallel as trading over that might indicate a count different than a simple impulse lower. TJ.

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  14. looks like a head and shoulders top on the 15 minute chart, we're at the possible neckline

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  15. ES/SPY made the marginally lower low. 'Minimum' flat requirement has been met. Might best count as w-x-y.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/nUTMr506/

    TJ

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    1. The "w" wave at only 7 bars seems a little undernourished compared to "x" and especially "y", lol.

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    2. GW.. see below. I am really worried you are 'not getting it'. TJ.

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  16. So, if you look at this count, you might think the 'leading diagonal' ((A)) of 'y' is a degree violation because it is longer in time than all of 'w', even though it is shorter in price.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/vIMPTxu0/

    What clears up the degree violation is look at how 'long in time' the ((C)) wave of the 'x' wave was in the futures (ES 15-min chart below).

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/70LZB73k/

    'Always' use the futures to verify time degree violations.
    TJ

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  17. fyi only .. if a lower low 'is' made, then consider a longer ((B)) wave of 'y' in time.
    TJ

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  18. I'm worried about Neely. As he stresses using cash where available (as futures can cause havoc in EW analysis), is he "missing" degree violations?

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    1. ..and it may be why he was forced to invent other patterns (diametric, neutral triangle, etc.). TJ.

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  19. fyi - only - cash made a tick lower; futures exact double-bottom. Monitor the overnight to see if these lows 'stick' or not. TJ.

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  20. A new post is started for the next day. TJ.

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