Wednesday, January 6, 2021

Turmoil

Stocks were higher on election turmoil today. This is likely in response to the lower U.S. Dollar. Dollar futures made a new low before  stabilizing a bit. On the daily time frame, the proximity to the 1.382 external Fibonacci retrace, still argues for a count like this. 

ES Futures - Daily - Minor B?

There is nothing that says the up wave is over just yet. We said yesterday that a wave (ii) would have to hold the high. It did not. This could be by plan (perhaps the Federal Reserve or President's Working Group (PPT) is trying to stabilize prices until there is a new administration in place). As with most "B" waves the count is very difficult. The wave structure does not count much like a diagonal as there are many flat waves internally. Earlier in the day we posted a triangle nearer the high. That contracting variety triangle is possible, but so is a barrier variety if this B-3 wave wishes to drag on in time.

At this point, breaking & back-testing the lower wedge line, and breaking below 3,600 would be informative. Be peaceful, calm and flexible.

Have a very good start to your evening,

TraderJoe

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27 comments:

  1. TimHJanuary 6, 2021 at 6:05 PM

    👍 thank you. What a crazy day!

    ReplyDelete
  2. GreywaverJanuary 6, 2021 at 7:07 PM

    I offer this daily look as a (hopefully) complement to TJ's above -

    https://funkyimg.com/i/39Tym.png

    ReplyDelete
  3. JCJanuary 7, 2021 at 3:53 AM

    $CPCE at .39 nearing Dec. 2020 extreme of .35.

    ReplyDelete
  4. GreywaverJanuary 7, 2021 at 8:17 AM

    Early look at hrly -

    https://funkyimg.com/i/39Uch.png

    ReplyDelete
  5. tradingview alertsJanuary 7, 2021 at 8:58 AM

    4hr EURUSD channel update. Trading on bottom trend line today once again.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/e5MlYxM6/

    DXY sustained break upwards of 90 level would be telling. Waiting.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/fULmKfBp/

    You said it best a while ago. Era of easy wave counting on the indices has indeed ended! Now I want a refund on my subscription to your blog ;) thanks for everything TJ.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Elliott_TraderJanuary 7, 2021 at 9:46 AM

    Good morning all. There is - for the first time - a way to count the USD as having bottomed and the Eur/USD as having topped.

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderJanuary 7, 2021 at 9:51 AM

      ...this would be the 2-hr count in the Eur/USD (6E) futures.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/3Xhl9fjp/

      It would involve a fifth wave truncation inside of an ending diagonal.

      TJ

      Delete
    2. Erik BJanuary 7, 2021 at 10:14 AM

      Thanks,
      Do you think this exp diagonal is likely or not?

      https://invst.ly/tdmbb

      Delete
    3. Elliott_TraderJanuary 7, 2021 at 10:23 AM

      @Erik .. a little less likely as each of the motive waves of an E-D usually take place 'over' the prior high, not under it.

      Delete
  7. Elliott_TraderJanuary 7, 2021 at 10:25 AM

    The ES 'might' count like this based on the EWO .. just be cautious as nothing is proved, yet.

    https://invst.ly/tdmlv

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. TachyonJanuary 7, 2021 at 10:41 AM

      I think we did complete a fourth wave of some kind on the last decline but was unsure how to label. Interesting triangle.

      Delete
    2. Elliott_TraderJanuary 7, 2021 at 10:47 AM

      IF it's a true triangle then this 'should be' a last wave up. First, we had a triangle at the 4 hr time-frame, and now (if this is correct) we've had one on the 15-minute time frame.

      Delete
    3. TachyonJanuary 7, 2021 at 11:27 AM

      Yep! Exactly what I was thinking.

      Delete
    4. JLeBeauJanuary 7, 2021 at 11:54 AM

      Thanks for your work ET, can you expand on your above comment.

      ET:IF it's a true triangle then this 'should be' a last wave up. First, we had a triangle at the 4 hr time-frame, and now (if this is correct) we've had one on the 15-minute time frame.

      Delete
    5. Elliott_TraderJanuary 7, 2021 at 12:56 PM

      @JLeBeau .. the triangle proportions are a little small in the (d) and (e) waves is all.

      Delete
  8. GreywaverJanuary 7, 2021 at 10:28 AM

    Update to recent 4hr -

    https://funkyimg.com/i/39Umk.png

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. GreywaverJanuary 7, 2021 at 10:42 AM

      For reference, the two larger HD targets come in around 3808/3816 basis above chart. :o)

      Delete
  9. TachyonJanuary 7, 2021 at 10:37 AM

    Expectation of SPX 3800 hit. Avi could be correct that 3900 in play. I am on sidelines until 2 conscutive daily closes above.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Roberto MattheusJanuary 7, 2021 at 10:38 AM

    dollar starting to break up out of it's shorter term wedge fwiw - https://invst.ly/tdmtb

    ReplyDelete
  11. Elliott_TraderJanuary 7, 2021 at 12:54 PM

    ES 5-min; on this small time-frame I am still counting upward until there is clear evidence that a squeeze is over. Further, it is very difficult to count upward otherwise and keep degree labeling in tact.

    https://invst.ly/tdp48

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderJanuary 7, 2021 at 1:27 PM

      ..trading below ((2)) would be a warning, of the prior high being a top. The up wave can be counted as a "five"..just being patient and flexible here.

      Delete
  12. Erik BJanuary 7, 2021 at 2:36 PM

    I think cash is much easier to count than ES atm, the zigzags in ((a)) is very distinct imho
    https://invst.ly/tdqk1

    ReplyDelete
  13. Erik BJanuary 7, 2021 at 2:51 PM

    @TJ If the diagonal you've been mentioning at NDX is correct, then ((C)) should go a bit higher?
    https://invst.ly/tdqow

    I wonder how this fits with YM and ES though..maybe these indices haven't started their((B))s yet either..

    https://invst.ly/tdqqu

    ReplyDelete

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