As far as I can tell at the moment, there are only three waves in each direction, as per the ES hourly chart, below.
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| ES Futures - 1 Hr - Three Down and Up |
These three waves in each direction could be part of a downward diagonal, or part of a triangle that points upward. It is very difficult to say, and the overall point change is minimal. One negative for an upward pointing triangle is the a-b-c of the larger (a) wave of a triangle is usually quite dramatic. This one is quite long, drawn out, and boring.
Further, at the middle of the day today, I asked readers to watch for a potential diagonal due to overlaps in the upward count of the ((C)) wave. That diagonal did play out, and is counted below.
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| ES Futures - 5 min - Diagonal |
In the above count, wave (v) is less in price and time than wave (iii), which is less in price and time than wave (i). Wave (iv) is less in price and time than wave (ii), and overlaps wave (i). Note the wave degree markers in this chart are for illustration and chart clarity only.
We can't know for sure if the diagonal is leading or it is ending. A clue will be if the high is exceeded before the low. However, there is a fair probability the diagonal is ending, so another clue will be the speed of any decline.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Thanks. Very helpful!
ReplyDeleteEOD 4hr/5min - both TFs showing sideways range currently.
https://funkyimg.com/i/3a3b5.png
Pre-open look 15min -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3a3Th.png
Nyad up yesterday while SPX & NDX A/D lines were down. Watching today.
DeleteNot sure how the wave patterns will unfold, but I am now fairly confident of the 3900 upside target.
ReplyDeleteGood morning all. After the diagonal, up, either a triangle or flat wave. The triangle is already legal, but it could devolve lower into a flat.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/tgp5u
TJ
I know that we typically look at the S&P500 but sometimes looking at other charts can help here is a possible diagonal on the Small Cap 2000. Problems: The chart is 180 instead of the 160-140 bars but the AO seems to show the correct signature and wave 2 and 4 are almost equal.
ReplyDeleteCPCE chart was at 0.34 yesterday.
https://imgur.com/qY2Gzpm
Tim
I think NQ waves are also clearer, thanks Tim
DeleteAt what point does TLT look interesting? 145 - 130
ReplyDeleteThe SPX looks like a wedge, C. Providing the wave proportions are correct. What do you think.
ReplyDeleteES 15-min; here's an update on the potential triangle / flat.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/tgrao
I just watched Jeff Bezos 'Blue Horizon' spacecraft with Manakin Skywalker aboard both take-off and land without a hitch. It looks like this latest blue candle. Lol.
TJ
..maybe futures are allowing cash to make a triangle.
DeleteI agree. The consolidation time presages a substantial directional break imo.
ReplyDeletePotential triangle has, indeed, broken downward (devolved) into a flat wave at minimum.
ReplyDeleteTJ
..now at 38.2% and daily Pivot Point.
Delete..now at 62%..
Delete(CNBC)
ReplyDelete"The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency finalized a rule on Thursday that Wall Street’s largest banks have strongly opposed since its proposal in November. The OCC’s Fair Access to Financial Services rule was finalized a day after current OCC head Brian Brooks announced his resignation. The rule seeks to require banks to provide quantitative metrics proving the risks that lead them to deny services to potential clients."
Current observations 15min/4hr -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3a4hu.png