Overnight the ES futures (2 hr) ran up to the 1.382 external retracement and hit it with precision in a quite rare triple zigzag - all of which we said was possible or even likely. In the updated chart, below, from the prior post, the Minute ((b)) wave of Minor B appeared to complete at that level.
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| ES Futures - 2 Hr - Minute ((b)) Complete |
The downward wave quickly broke the lower channel boundary, the (e) wave of the triangle, and the 3,714 level which was Confirmation Level 1 (L1) of a likely downturn. The downward wave is longer in price than any of the downward corrections within the channel, and, thus, the degree of wave has likely turned.
In a real treat for those of you who are learning degree labeling, note how the minuet (i) wave stopped just short of 100% the length of the larger degree minute ((a)) wave down - on the left. I have not shown this measurement, you are encouraged to perform it for yourself. This is as it should be to remain a smaller degree wave in the same direction as ((a)), down.
What is shown is the second level of confirmation (L2) which would be below the (x1) wave. As stated before, the final level of confirmation is exceeding the minute ((a)) wave low. Wave minuet (ii), up, is likely in progress. It 'might' back-test the channel, but it should stay lower than the all-time-high (ATH).
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
As you say, with the Certification and tomorrow's run-off coming, its enough to make anyone nervous, let alone the VIX traders. :o)
ReplyDeleteUpdate to Saturday's (daily) VIX -
https://funkyimg.com/i/39QG6.png
Thanks TJ and GW. I’m sure that gap in VIX will get closed.
DeleteGW - currently cash has a positive HD on RSI from dec. 14 which projects to 3800 area.
DeleteShould be dec. 11
DeleteJoe, I was wondering if you would be so kind as to post a bigger picture chart? Big enough to show the action from the Sept 2018 orthodox top?
ReplyDeletehappy new year Jay
ReplyDeletejust wondering, how did you count the minor A wave? can't find the count on your blog
take care
KaVi
three waves..
Deletere: "In a real treat for those of you who are learning degree labeling, note how the minuet (i) wave stopped just short of 100% the length of the larger degree minute ((a)) wave down - on the left. I have not shown this measurement, you are encouraged to perform it for yourself. This is as it should be to remain a smaller degree wave in the same direction as ((a)), down."
ReplyDeleteSounds nice, but it doesn't work in the cash, as the first wave down was 90.22 points, and today's wave down was 107.28 points.
As I have said many times before, "degree is always verified in the futures; they have more point travel and include waves and lengths that cash does not".
DeleteEarly look at 5min cash -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/39RnD.png
Note: the hold at 40 level after moving up into sideways range was a positive.
DeleteGood morning all. With ES 15-min now having made a 50% retrace in 'more time' than wave (i), down, when it is done moving up, it 'should' be able to support a 1.618 x (i) wave in the downward direction.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/tcn84
TJ
Update on 5min cash and (hopefully) informational -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/39RuD.png
Looks to me like another pitched battle around DJIA 30K and SPX 3700...same stuff, different day. I suspect we have not quite topped, but getting close...
ReplyDeleteES 15-min. This is all I have at the moment: equality of up waves currently. If ((A))-((B))-((C)), then ((C)) can add a fourth and a fifth. If ((W))-((X))-((Y)) then 62% might hold it.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/tcqyh
TJ
Joe
DeleteI think your one was "a" and 2 was a "b" and then within the 3rd there was a triangle ?
Target 3732 es, if it goes above I am certainly wrong.
ReplyDeleteThere is a new post started for the next day.
ReplyDelete