This count on the ES 2-hr futures still makes sense until it doesn't. And I am still counting upwards with the trend until that is no longer possible. The ES futures were higher by about +15 points overnight. But, about 45 minutes after the cash market opened, they turned lower along with the cash market.
Cash sold down from roughly 3,860 to roughly 3,800 - a quick sixty points in about one hour. Then, after 11 AM, the retrace began. At this point, it looks like the up wave is a very speedy micro ((A)) wave, up, and the ((B)) wave does not look well developed yet. However, we now have the likely parameters for a diagonal wave: a) on the down side the level of 3,776 should not be exceeded lower or wave iv would risk becoming longer than wave ii in price. And, on the up side, wave v should not become longer than wave iii in price.
Wave v, up, should also make another divergence with the Elliott Wave Oscillator. Note that wave iv made about a 50% retrace also on wave iii, and so the wave does have some nice proportions about it.
We are not trying to force a diagonal here. We are trying to count an overlapping wave structure according to the rules. The diagonal is potential only until it's wave structure should hold. If, and only if, a diagonal forms properly, then the low of the structure should be taken out in less time than it took to build.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
👍
ReplyDeleteYup, noice. FOMC on Wednesday.
ReplyDeleteNYAD & NAAD down today.
ReplyDeleteET, Maybe you have addressed this and I missed it, but any chance there was a running triangle on ES in the middle of this move since March. It looks like it really wanted to get back in the wave it was correcting. It missed it by only a few points.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/MUgNCQs
So, a running triangle pattern is not 'illegal' because the futures (e) wave does overlap the prior high. But, the wave amounts to just 'drawing cartoons' from what I can tell for these reasons:
Delete1. (a) can be counted as 'five'
2. (b) is very disproportional to (a)
3. (c) does not make even a 62% retrace, let alone 78%
4. (b) can be counted as 'five'
5. (e)in the Dow is lower than (c) - not in the ES; not legal.
Further, the volume is quite heavy in the interior of the supposed triangle. That is atypical.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/y4jYbFM8/
TJ
Thx for response.
DeleteHrly - targets for anticipated move up should it occur -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3ajSz.png
👍
DeleteThoughts on the daily -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3akse.png
ES had closed the last 2 days away from the Bollinger Band. For RUT it is 5 days. Another sign of weakness
ReplyDeletelooks like a drop today, false breakout https://invst.ly/tl8d4
ReplyDeleteGood morning all. So far, there has been one higher high. Can extend a bit if it wants to. The cash wedge looks pretty good now, too.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/3BFteM2D/
TJ
..also the EWO on the 2-hr is displaying what can be a fifth wave signature - above the zero line but diverging on a higher high.
Delete..max price for diagonal in this configuration is 3,907.75 using these quotes. But, I think 3,900-5 will be 'pushing it'. Prior up wave was a 70% extension. This should 'probably' hold in at 60 - 70%, as well.
DeleteCash 1 hour has HD target approximately 3879, came up short so far.
Delete..and yes, with the higher high, it is 'possible' to conclude the up wave is over. Need to watch for confirmations, however, if that is the case.
ReplyDeleteLumber futures still making insane moves. Nuts!
ReplyDeleteVery short term: ES 1-min has a lower low; both zigzags, on a divergence with the EWO. 'Might' start a downward diagonal, but has to prove itself.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/tl9xo
TJ
..now there is upward overlap. A downward diagonal is pending formation of proper time & Price signature. Otherwise, just a double-zigzag, lower. Ideally, in a diagonal, wave four should remain shorter in price and time than the second wave.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/tla21
TJ
..EWO on a diagonal fourth wave should remain lower, too.
Delete..trend lines are now established. A diagonal is now dependent on a lower lower wave that is shorter than 3.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/tlaim
TJ
..a one-minute diagonal did not play out. Switching to a longer time frame (5 min).
DeleteOn 5min cash, showing neg HD with target below 3847. Good as long as HD close remains intact.
ReplyDeleteQuick peek at 5min cash -
Deletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3akDP.png
The smaller neg. HD has been negated, supporting the larger pos. HD case.
DeleteNow key level test at 60 level.
DeleteES 1-Hr: higher highs or lower lows needed to make a pattern. Two good possibilities emerge: i) still in the ((A)) wave up of v, or ii) in a pre-FED running triangle (discussed yesterday) which would likely be the ((B)) wave of v. Not worth too much time to try to analyze here, yet, as breakouts or breakdowns are needed.
ReplyDeleteTJ
5min cash update - pick your poison.
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3akN9.png
Still in bullish range (40-80).
DeleteOn the 5min, the move up this morning "looked" like 5 waves.
DeleteA new post is started for the net day.
ReplyDelete5min cash - how the day ended.
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3akN9.png