Final Wedge in the Larger Wedge? - 3

Following on from yesterday's larger 2-hr wave count, we are trying to count the wave from the level of wave iv. There is a way to consider today as the high, but the down wave so far has not followed through. See the ES 30-minute chart below, from the end of wave iv.

ES Futures - 30 Min - Trying to count v

Last night, we suggested that following the A wave up we counted, a "B" wave could occur as a flat or expanded flat wave in the overnight. That appears to be what occurred - followed by five-waves-up to a "C" wave. Right now, the wave labels in italics (A,B,C) are provisional. The down count, so far, looks corrective.

The higher high for the "C" wave means that the diagonal did not fail. What is required now is either a break-up, or a break-down in the price structure. There are some rare reports that one of the legs of a diagonal - on rare occasion - may extend to become a double zigzag. We saw such a thing in the daily Eur/USD a few years ago. Barring that, and with the FED meeting tomorrow, we also wonder if there wouldn't be a way for the "B" wave to become a longer in time triangle.

Right now, there is not much point in detailed analysis as price is just being whipped around, double-topped and double-bottomed. A detailed look at the chart shows that after five exact touches of the 3,840 level, prices made a marginal new local high when Starbucks and Microsoft reported earnings after the bell.

If prices can not make a higher all-time high, and we are giving a lot of time for this to happen, then perhaps then price might start downward via a diagonal. The multiple double-bottoms and double-tops do not make for ready analysis.

So, as always, we remain flexible, patient and calm as the market decides the next course of action.

Have a good start to the evening.

TraderJoe