The Dow Futures (YM) remains accurately on their wedge trend line with the count as it has been progressing. The exact position of Intermediate wave (Y) remains undetermined at the moment.
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| YM Futures - 1 Day - Wedge |
A retrace to the lower trend line is still being looked for at this point. The up wave keeps losing and gaining momentum in a frustrating way as money keeps being created to keep the up trend alive. Parts of the up waves are impulsive, other parts of them are corrective. Further portions of the up waves are corrective waves that look impulsive because of their point gains.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Comments on the nature of the price action absolutely spot-on T.J. Huge kudos on your persistence in trying to accurately count the chaos. It leaves my head spinning...!
ReplyDeleteMultiple Feb members are starting to sound hawkish with earlier than expected tapering bond purchases. 10Y yield is increasing too.
ReplyDeleteVix is making another higher low. Looks like Vix is in another wedge pattern and should break out higher soon.
ReplyDeleteStrictly observations - SPX stocks above their 50ma(s)
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/39UWG.png
I agree, but price is king and until it breaks down ride the wave. I’m not telling you anything you don’t already know.
DeleteYep. The absence of normal pull-backs in the market is worrisome and hints at an artificial bid under the market to keep price elevated. The number of futures gaps higher is unprecedented, and we continue to trade and historic distancrs from important moving averages. It is impossible to know when the artificial bid will be overcome by RTM prrssure, we just know it eventually will, and the wave pattern and price st the round numbers should give great insight when this finally begins.
DeletePre-open 4hr look -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/39VwQ.png
#3 HD target confluent with 1.272 external retrace.
DeleteIf you think this is bearish chart look at the weekly chart:)
ReplyDeleteSimilar trend line with three touches and double RSI divergences.
One benefit of the SPX move above 3800 is that we now have another round number we can use to gauge an interim top. The jnitial wave down will breach 3700 to confirm.
ReplyDeleteGood afternoon all. SPX cash (30 min) may be giving us a good piece of luck here. Watch for overlap. And it agrees with Tachy's assessment of below 3,700 as being of interest.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/rGSUNVfO/
TJ
IF the pattern of alternation is correct, then ((v)) should be shorter than ((iii)) because ((iii)) is shorter than ((i)) as shown.
DeleteTJ
Here's an update: no overlap yet (by less than 1 pt!).
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/QjREf12Z/
TJ
great call thank you! If they end strong, everyone will go home relaxed :)
DeleteTj
Deleteyour circle iii could also be subminutte ((i)) of a larger 3.
nq is clearer on the waves imo
DeleteYes indeed! Vigorous defense of round numbers pointing to at least another ramp higher...looks like AVI was right about that 3900 target as we will likely get a second close above 3800 today.
ReplyDeleteUpdate to this morning's pre-open 4hr -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/39VZS.png
New high.
DeleteNow reached the 1.382 external retrace.
DeleteSPX cash 30-min; has gone over the high.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/MrYJRIWE/
On a smaller time frame, 'five-waves-up' can be counted.
TJ