Tuesday, January 5, 2021

Back-testing Channel

Nothing has changed. The channel back-test we referred to yesterday got underway today. It will either count as a-b-c or w-x-y of (ii) - provided the high is not broken.


Trading below the original (solid, black) up channel indicates a loss of momentum. The smaller up wave channel (dotted, purple) has taken more time than wave (i) down, and put a tail on 62% retrace level. Keep one eye on the Georgia election results overnight.

Have a good start to your evening.

TraderJoe

18 comments:

  1. Thks! This evening/overnight should be interesting.

    Recap of 5min cash (interesting day on this time frame) -

    https://funkyimg.com/i/39RU2.png

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    Replies
    1. Initial 5min bar has taken RSI below 30.

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    2. Cash dumps into the market are starting to become laughable. Price now imo clearly a function of CB deep-pocket intervention. Watching the round numbers with keen interest!

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  2. Still patiently waiting for a surrender of DJIA 30K and SPX 3700 on a closing basis. Another daily close above imo puts a pending third down in doubt. They will certainly fall decisively today if a 1,2 count is correct.

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  3. Good rise to the daily bb that seems to be slowing the wave.

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  4. Current look at 4hr -

    https://funkyimg.com/i/39T9s.png

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  5. Good afternoon all, the only legal pattern I can find that fits the three-wave corrective wave structure, and this thrust out is this slightly mis-shaped triangle. However, both cash and futures are now over the prior high, so that part is relatively unambiguous.

    https://invst.ly/td6or

    TJ

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  6. ET - I noticed you started to use the RSI instead of the EWO - any reason for this change?

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    Replies
    1. ..hi, Walter; right now I'm just watching it for reference. It also throws one off at the ((c)) wave of the triangle - unless that is one of the "Hidden Divergences" that GW makes reference to (lower Osc with higher price). But, I noticed that GW did not mark it such at the time, so I'm not sure how useful they are in real time, yet. Something to study.

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    2. Good observation! It is an HD. Didn't mark it as it would be showing a target much higher. I would see no need to address it (for me anyway) until the prior high was materially breached on a closing basis. Price is (at this time) showing a strong evening star reversal on the hrly, having closed only .30 higher than prior high. Will post hrly soon to update.
      Thanks

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  7. Just fyi -

    CNN - US CAPITOL BREACHED

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. (CNN) - Pro-Trump protesters storm US Capitol as lawmakers gather to count electoral votes

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  8. ES 15-min, this is a plausible wave as a thrust from a triangle. I'm still being flexible .. even waves like this break down unexpectedly sometimes.

    https://invst.ly/td7qn

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. ...note that wave ((3)) is 'inside' of 2.618.

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    2. IF the count doesn't work, it likely means 1) there is poor alternation, and 2) then all of micro-((2)) is actually 'inside' the triangle.

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  9. Looks like classice "C" wave action in yet another violent zig zag wave. My upside target remains at least a tag of 3800 but VIX hinting not gonna happen. Avi called for 3900. My wave counting acumen is not as keen as T.J. so I continue to rely on CB largesse around the round number...really amazing!

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  10. Dropped to hrly for closer look -

    https://funkyimg.com/i/39Tj4.png

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