There is still no good reason to change the count. There were marginal new highs in the NQ futures (at the settle), not the ES as of yet. The advance-decline line is mixed, and the Dow lower on an otherwise up day.
With the new highs, it's possible that diagonals in the fifth wave of minute ((c)) are under construction. We'll see. As a reminder, they have to form properly. There are otherwise hard to explain downward overlaps.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Hi, Joe,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the update. Could wave iii of V of c subdivide?
https://www.tradingview.com/x/e3NFmlyv/
..the count you show has a degree violation in it. The second (ii) is longer in price and time than the first ii. That's not the way Expansions occur with lower degree waves at each step. So, in the manner you show, no. Your chart says that a smaller degree wave is larger than a larger degree wave. So, you need to spend some time on the concept of wave 'degree'.
DeleteIn reference to this mornings range chart, we did break the 2-4 TL in fewer bars than (v) took to form. We did not retrace to (iv) as price found support at the peaks on the 24th and reversed.
ReplyDeleteHourly ES chart now has marginal higher high, and downward overlap, as follows.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/mSqeWeXN/
TJ
..and a big divergence on that hourly MACD.
Delete..preliminary adv/dec = 1,121 / 1,581.
Delete3,455 = 34 and 55 two consecutive Fibonacci numbers
ReplyDeleteHi, Joe, do you agree that if SPX is above above 3466.52, the diagonal will be invalidated?
ReplyDeleteyes.
DeleteA radical thought:
ReplyDeleteIf all/part of rally on 20th was a 1st wave, then move up to early 25th a 3rd, pullback following is 4th, now in poss ending diag 5th?
Thanks
Just fyi - ES now over upper Daily Bollinger band; don't be surprised if the so-called 'Smart Money' starts taking some off of the table.
ReplyDeleteThe diagonal has been invalidated. Given the divergence in A/D line, it looks like that we are in a 5th wave. Not sure about the degree.
ReplyDelete..see below.
DeleteJust fyi - while a diagonal has just invalidated; sideways structure 'might' still be a triangle, and this could be the fifth wave thrust from a triangle.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/rxte6
Wave v should remain shorter than wave iii.
TJ
Thanks Joe. I have noticed that both daily and weekly A/D line are in divergence with the SPX. In fact, the weekly A/D has not made a new high in current rally. If SPX break 3350 before weekly A/D make a new high, I think that we will probably see a quite deep correction.
DeleteIf you look at smaller tf there is no triangle. I can think of an ed. This being the 3rd wave of ed.
ReplyDeleteHere is the smaller time-frame triangle; it's can be 'barrier triangle' with a pop out of it. That's because the rules for ((B)) and ((D)) in a barrier triangle are a bit 'sloppy', where ((D)) is allowed to exceed ((B)), as long as it does not 'close' above wave 3.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/rxuae
TJ
Here is that potential expanding diagonal on the NQ futures that I pointed out as one of the two possibilities yesterday. It is 'possible' to still see a triangle in that interior, but it is not as well-formed as the diagonal. And the diagonal has a wave that lives up to it's personality.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/rxtya
TJ
..just fyi .. can be counted as five waves up on the ES 5-min, with another barrier triangle on the smaller time frame.
DeleteTJ
..here's a smaller timeframe chart; possible to see 'five waves up'.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/rxuv0
TJ
Can you image what the $CPCE is today? Yesterday, it was 0.42.
ReplyDeleteNow below wave (E) of the smaller 5-minute barrier triangle ((4)).
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/rxvat
TJ
Daily close well up over the upper Bollinger Band. New high occurred in the after hours. Jackson Hole starts tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDelete