Promises, Promises - 2

When a person is using Elliott Wave to analyze the markets, some things occur which are odd to say the least. In mid-afternoon, today, we counted 'five-waves-up' to a near new top. The ES five minute chart is below. See the up channel in the middle of the day.

ES Futures - 5 Minutes - Five Waves In A channel

We showed  this chart and said it was very likely five-waves-up: like it or not. Far from being "too bearish", we gave every ample opportunity for the market to make the slight new high. We cycled through the possibilities of "impulse, diagonal, triangle, flat, and 'overlap watch'". It was 'overlap' that won out. The question is this. Wave ((5)) is not as long as wave ((3)). It could have been. It wasn't. Why not? Why didn't the wave go over the top?

Yes, we see the clear triangle for wave ((4)), which could indicate 'the last wave up dead-ahead'. 

Let me say it again, that wave ((5)) could have gone over the top. It didn't .. at least not today. So, is it me suggesting that this high needs to be monitored for a failure, or it the market? And why did it stop short of the top? Could it be that - as I indicated yesterday - price was up and over the upper daily Bollinger Band, and the so-called 'Smart Money' might be taking some off of the table? Could it be that the put-call ratio I clearly highlighted yesterday at 0.39 was saying that short-term sentiment was over-done? Could it be the $VIX divergence I pointed out yesterday is actually playing out?

We don't know for sure yet. Are further highs possible with the construction you see above? Yes. But, the market has set the parameters for the move. Over today's high, or under today's low. You have to have some darn good market metrics to otherwise figure that out, probably something like actual order-flow, or broker account balances. Those are likely available to the market-makers' algorithms. They are not available to me.

I just count waves.

Have a very good start to your evening.

TraderJoe