NQ 100

This is the second post this weekend, and - if you haven't - you might like to read the prior one, first.

Trying to develop a count on the NASDAQ 100 Index futures has been vexing at best. But now there is a structure at the top that may make it more possible at this time. First, let's look at the daily price chart without Elliott Wave labels, but with 1) a potential price channel, 2) the daily EMA-34, and 3) the Elliott Wave Oscillator. And we'll make a few visual observations, too.

NQ Futures - Daily - Channel

Like the S&P 500 we see that prices have not yet filled out the lower half of a channel. Price has readily found support on the EMA-34.  As I have mentioned before, there are now a Fibonacci 89 days+, from the low. Sometimes turns come within a couple days plus-or-minus. If you look at the Elliott wave Oscillator below the price chart, you'll see it has never once dipped to indicate below the zero line to indicate a good second wave or fourth wave location on this time scale. More telling, the EWO has not made it to a "new high" to indicate a powerful third wave in progress, using the principles of The Eight Fold Path methodology.

And, next, it must be noted that there is a "center section" in early June that shows extreme compression of the price bars. Thus, one might conclude this is not a good location for part of a third wave, because third waves are expansive in their character like at the location in mid-April shown in the lower left. And, just prior to that compressed section in June is a small structure that looks like a diagonal or part of one. But we know it simply can not be an ending diagonal because it's beginning was never exceeded lower. Therefore, if a diagonal exists at all, it must be a leading diagonal - not an ending one.

With this background, and the structure at the top, we can try to suggest the following Elliott wave labels for this sequence in great detail.

NQ 100 Futures - Daily - With Wave Labels

So, if there is a leading diagonal at all, it is probably the one shown here. It is likely a Minor A wave. Again, the diagonal is never fully retraced. It is a 3-3-3-3-3 variety diagonal, and that's what makes the wave count so darn difficult: there is so much compression.

Next is that section in early June. If it's not part of a third wave - because of the compression - then perhaps it is just the minute ((b)) wave of a flat, followed by the minute ((c)) wave back down to the EMA-34, which incidentally fails because the ((b)) wave is so extreme with regards to its minute ((a)) wave.

Finally are the waves post June 15th. One can probably eyeball five non-overlapping waves up. Perhaps this is the Minor C wave of Intermediate wave (W). So, we'd have a diagonal, a flat, and an impulse up for good alternation in a corrective wave.

And now the difficult news. So, if after the Minor C wave up completes, there is an Intermediate (X) wave down, then this (X) wave can also have almost any corrective-type structure down, including a zigzag, multiple zigzag, diagonal & impulse, or be some sort of triangle. But, it should try to touch the lower channel line, and the EWO should try to come back to the zero line.

This index has been difficult but I have tried to develop a count with degree labeling in mind. Both minute ((ii)) and minute ((iv)) of Minor C would be shorter in time than Minor B. And, based on these price quotes, they are shorter in price than the maximum travel in Minor B, as well.

If this pattern holds up, then the corrective (X) wave in the NQ 100, and the corrective (B) wave in the S&P500 might sync up - and that would be a welcome outcome.

I feel relatively confident about this count because it starts from nothing, and builds from the ground up. It's a fresh look - was independently developed - follows the rules, alternation & degree labeling. And it is compatible with The Eight Fold Path Methodology. Caution: the pattern allows for a few new highs. Clearly a daily topping pattern and daily price closes below the EMA-34 are needed as steps in the confirmation process that an (X) wave lower is underway.

Have an excellent rest of the weekend.

TraderJoe