ES futures made a slight higher high today, as we suggested might happen in yesterday's post. Then, prices fell off and the advance-decline ratio turned negative on the day. Likely, today represents the last chance fourth wave (iv) within the minute ((c)) wave up of Minor 3. Depending on which contract rollover method you use for a continuous contract, ES prices did not get over the prior all-time-high like cash did. Maybe they will try that in minuet wave (v).
The four-hour chart is shown just for clarity - to put the waves in their current context.
Finally, we have a clear invalidation point for a wave. Using the quotes from this service, price can not go under 3,336 - without having made wave (v), first - or wave (iv) would become longer than wave (ii) in points and that would be against the rules.
The above count meets with degree labeling requirements as best I can tell, and the time signature within the diagonal is acceptable, with the waves contracting in time.
And note that divergence on the 4-Hr MACD. Again, this is really arduous wave counting. It really tests the patience, and eats up personal energy. To top it off, if wave Minor 3 completes as expected, then Minor 4 would likely only be a relatively swift, short zigzag to go back down and overlap Minor 1.
As of this morning, there was still room to allow that overlap and be shorter than Minor 2. That needs to be watched closely if minuet (v) makes the new high.
Have a very good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
Relative to gold and silver, I believe silver made an all time high in 79/80 of approximately $50 an ounce. Looking at a monthly close chart at Stockcharts doesn't show the all time high. In 2011 silver made an all time monthly close high but did not exceed the previous peak in 79/80. Wouldn't there still be a very long term negative divergence between gold and silver since gold has made new all time highs but silver has not?
ReplyDeletePerhaps I made a poor attempt to explain my point. Since the 79/80 peaks in gold and silver, gold has gone on to make higher highs but silver has not confirmed, leaving a long term non-confirmation.
ReplyDeleteHere's an ES 4-hr chart update: 1) price is back to the EMA-34 having first resisted invalidation for wave (iv), 2) the MACD divergence is getting worse, 3) we now know that wave 'c' of (iii) could have been an ending diagonal iteself, as the beginning point of that diagonal was exceeded lower in less time than the diagonal took to form.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/rvfrb
TJ
Also the CPCE chart is lower today at 0.43
DeleteHi, TJ,
ReplyDeleteIn cash SPX, (iv) is longer in time than (ii), would that be an issue?
Thanks!
..doesn't look like it's an issue because they are equal in the futures or just about so. And as I have written many times, 'degree' is always verified in the futures only. The cash doesn't trade overnight, so you have no idea how many hours a wave is actually taking in cash.
DeleteThanks. In case futures make a new low anytime today but above invalidation level, would you start counting the alternative (red 3)?
Delete..how about you go to Investing.com and show me your down count from yesterday morning to this morning on the SPY on a 5 minute chart, and I'll give you some feedback if you are correct or not. Include your Fibonacci justification and other justification you see fit. Paste a link to your chart here.
DeleteWell. I'm disappointed Rc .. the market doesn't give one too much time to think. In the event, you are stuck in Investing.com or haven't used it before, I am posting this link to what I consider as the best answer, including all rationale.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/rvig6
P.S. I checked before posting and you hadn't responded yet.
TJ
Sorry, TJ. Stuck in meetings all day and just saw your chart. In my mind, the down count start around 10.45 (not 13.00). Again, thanks for sharing and enlighten me.
DeleteHave a good evening.
Plus, the bar on 10:40 is 0.5 points higher than the bar at 13:00.
DeleteHere is the link to my down count:
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/xCXSP80k/
Basically, we have extended 5th down. Today's up move is exactly at iv of the down move.
AAPL and TSLA look like they would finish wave 5 from August 12 before the weekend. Not seeing what would drive minor 5 in the chart posted.
ReplyDeleteI think TSLA now in wave 4 (might be 4 of 3) from 1.49pm today / 1966. Good chance for major top before the close, or early a.m Friday. My guess is near 2035-2040. Today will be day 4 closing outside the upper Bollinger band.
DeleteOthers might like to learn from this chart, so I am reposting here, in the event you were not watching the thread above.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/rvig6
TJ
..five waves up in a wedge with extended first wave x((1)) in SPY. The fifth wave should be monitored to see if remains shorter than ((3)).
Deletehttps://invst.ly/rvjwn
TJ