I said in yesterday's post, that if the 3,365 level was broken in the ES futures, whether in the after-hours or not, then it was possible to see the up wave as done! And that a full-or-partial retracement of the wave should occur. Breaking of that level did occur in the overnight session. Prices traded a bit lower in the afterhours, and, when the cash market opened, prices initially started trading higher. The ES 30-min futures chart is shown below for reference.
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| ES Futures - 30 Min - Up Wave and Lower Lows |
Interestingly, prices got within two ticks of the prior high, but they did not surpass it. At mid-morning the market was decidedly mixed, not only in terms of the price averages but also by the relative numbers of advancing and declining stocks.
Shortly after noon, prices became begrudgingly more impulsive to the downside. They tagged the 38% retracement level of the wave, and rebounded a bit. That we are in a full-or-partial retrace of the wave, can also be seen now by 'time' considerations, as well. The current sideways looking wave is as long in time as the prior upward wave labeled i - v. This should mean the two waves are at least of the same degree (or the wave after the five-count is of a higher degree).
The job now becomes somewhat more straight-forward. The first thing to do is to see if the potential second green (up) fractal actually becomes a fractal by completing a second lower high bar. (By the futures close, it had). Then, breaks of the fractals should be monitored to help inform on the local direction of the wave.
Right now, we are just trading sideways between 3,360 and 3,380. A clear break either way is needed to end the sideways pattern.
A break of the prior up wave low - below 3,320 is likely needed as a first step in confirmation that wave Minor 4 has started. Pending that, we are likely still in Minor 3.
Have a good start to your evening,
TraderJoe
Today's gap in AAPL. If it holds, and I think it will, can continue 5 from July 24 into next week and possibly spike above 500. If it closes, it could be all over.
ReplyDeleteAt same time ES can subdivide with that being 1-2 from 3320 holding 3360ish support. Squeek a little higher for 3400ish next week and a closing new high to 'celibrate'.
DeleteThe end is near.
https://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=W&yr=8&mn=6&dy=0&id=p43635234309&a=245438750&r=595
Also ET, I FINALLY get the idea of A up from March low with B and C still to come. B would be election risk crash - maybe 50% retrace to 2800ish, C would require a Trump victory with rally into Q1 and get the AD divergence. If Biden wins, from March low is X, and the B down would change to 1 of C down. IMO.
ReplyDeleteor W/Y - I get lost in the nomenclature
DeleteOr a vaccine rally might make a (C) wave up.
DeleteET - doing the math:
DeleteIf A was a flat about 21 months.
Assuming B will be zigzag, it should be faster, so eg. 12 months would be reasonable - it's open ended but assume for now.
Then C could either be a 5 to complete a flat, or a 3 as part of a compound - but should be minimum about a year duration?
A was 18 months
DeleteThis seems to raise a question (could be wrong) -
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/GAEQoan
Comment(s) welcome
Just confirming after an overnight low of 3,350, there appears to be a clear five-waves-up in a channel, with alternation and a 1.618 third wave. This is followed by a three-wave 50% wave down, which is currently shorter in time.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/rt3jd
TJ
..now three-down in some manner (either as a completed correction or to start a larger flat wave).. and out of it's smaller channel.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/rt3rw
TJ
..now a 'true' 90% upward wave; 'b' wave of flat, 'b' wave of barrier triangle or next impulse in progress. 'b' wave good to 3,377, or beyond that signifies likely impulse, upward, even if only a 'c' wave. If the wave is a flat, it can be trying to extend the 'time' of the correction to better match the 'time' of the prior impulse, up.
DeleteTJ
..now up over the prior 3,370 high in 'post-pattern-behavior' confirming the nature of the prior :5 as a motive sequence. Can still be a 'b' wave as a multiple zigzag. Can also be in the next impulse, depending on extent. Higher high also allows expanded flat.
Delete..with the higher high and downward overlap of 3,370, draw in the temporary 'base-channel', and the Fib time-extension. The base-channel may be revised 'only-once', if needed, and that is if an expanded flat is in progress.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/rt5jl
TJ
..upward wave now 'too long in time' for a 'b' wave; it is longer in time than the first :5, up. The slight higher high may mean a diagonal 'c' wave in progress.
Delete..might look something like this; give it time.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/rt6-u
TJ
..below 3368 is invalidation for a fourth wave. Hasn't invalidated yet. If it does, it's a-triange-b, and c with the pop out of the triangle.
Delete..now invalidated.
DeleteTJ...I am trying to focus on the "time aspect" of the three wave 50% retrace that is shorter in time than the 5 waves up earlier today. Can we say that since the wave down is shorter in time than the five waves up that the chances of that being a "b" wave rather than "2" is because a "2" is typically longer in time than the previous wave "1"? I understand that the other evidence of the down wave possibly being a b wave is the higher high by the next wave and that the next wave is longer in time than the 5 waves up. But really I was wondering why "shorter in time" for that 50% retrace wave was highlighted after the first five waves up.
Delete..now at lower base-channel up trend line.
Delete..probably counts best like this .. with a very short fourth wave ..regardless, any upward retrace would need to stick.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/rt7di
It could also be a 'failed' diagonal with that last little wave not making it over the high.
TJ
..and yes, it 'could be' a much larger triangle 'b' wave but, should retrace to 62 or 78%; and hasn't done that yet. But that has 'second place' because of the 'time' of the up wave.
Delete..so on the hourly chart, if we are making an expanding diagonal downward, then the wave fits because it is longer in price than the second wave, but it 'still' could triangle and go longer. Charts to follow.
Delete..here is that hourly possibility .. IF wave iv wants to make a trend line, watch out for a larger triangle here.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/rt7gr
These are really intractable waves.
TJ
..triangle option now history ..
Delete..potentially, the start of the diagonal 'was' exceeded in less time than the diagonal took to form.
Delete..exact back-test of underside of rising channel by the cash close.
DeleteIntractable is an under-statement...more like "head-spinning" really. I have never seen rogue waves like these, and I have been watching price action for quite some time...Yikes!
Delete