Just as was suggested that Friday was a day of "window-dressing" with weakness early, today was suggested to be a day of inflows from pension finds, 401k's, company month end bonuses, dividend reinvestment plans, etc. It was and stocks rose, albeit tepidly as the preliminary advance-decline line on the hourly chart of the ES futures shows below.
 |
| ES Futures - 1 Hr - First of Month |
At the moment we are counting an impulse up from Friday's low. But it might be the minute ((c)) wave up, following the minute ((a)) wave up of Minor 5 on Friday. The Fibonacci ruler (in magenta) shows the two waves at near equality at this time, although this wave is a tad longer. Interestingly, subwave (i) of minute ((c)) and the minute ((a)) wave high are very near the same locations. So, this provides a relatively clear overlap warning.
The market was nice enough to eliminate one alternate today. We know that since this upward wave from Friday is longer in price and time than Friday's wave up, we should not be making a diagonal wave ((a)) up to the high (not without a lot more waves and a lot more overlaps at any rate).
On a slightly different time-scale (2-hr chart, below), the NQ 100 has enough sub-waves to be counted impulsively from the Minor wave 4, low.
 |
| NQ 100 Futures - 2 Hr - Impulse for Minor 5? |
As the Fibonacci ruler shows (in magenta), this wave has exceeded 100% x wave ((i)). Yet, the subwaves of wave minute ((iii)) are shorter in price and time than those within minute ((i)) which follows the degree labeling allowed in an extension.
In any event, it needs to be stated that counts are getting mature in both indexes.
Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
It appears that on the ES chart, (i) of ((C)) is extended. I believe we could expect (v) to end somewhere between .618 - 1.00 of (i) from (ii) if Im remembering correctly. Wave (iii) already reached the .618. Question: Not suggesting that it would(will), but could (v) truncate here?
ReplyDeleteThanks
Thanks
(v) of ((c)) must be shorter than (iii) of ((c)) otherwise (iii) would be the shortest wave which is not permitted. So (v) has a pretty well defined limit.
DeleteAccording to futures prices this morning, there is a triangle at the top followed by a higher high, and then the downward overlap. Watch to see if any upward retrace holds the high.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/LI1ncc6l/
TJ
Here is the intraday wave counting screen, including updates on the daily pivots, info from the daily Bollinger Bands and the most recent fractals.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/roab6
TJ
nice 30min GC contracting diagonal
ReplyDelete3300 tag, but so far no signs of a turn...interesting...
ReplyDeleteMorning Tach and all
ReplyDeleteThe 60ty looking like we will be getting -d ..tempting to short ..then again the looming stimulus..:) Gl all
S&P cfd has now retraced 90% of overnight selloff.
ReplyDeleteS&P500 cash, now has its own funky triangle and higher high too. Could try for one more up wave, but ok now if it truncates (the potential leading diagonal overall did not truncate).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/JcTmM11W/
TJ
Intraday Adv-Dec : 1,686 - 1,191, still tepid.
ReplyDeleteJust thinking out-loud here; for any downward count, due to the low point losses and the high retrace, best to tentatively label as a-b for now.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/rodl-
TJ
Yep. Everything looking corrective so far. Looks like we are heading for a close above 3300.00...
Delete@tachy ... there are downwards counts that start out correctively.
DeleteThinking poss diagonal down for c?
DeleteThanks
The four-hour diagonal in GOLD may be seen as follows with perfect timing. Each wave contracts in price and time, and there is now a clear invalidation point for a diagonal of 2,020. Interesting number: where have I heard it before?!
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/roe5r
TJ
..make sure you use broker quotes and the actual month being traded to determine precise invalidation (e.g. DEC Gold is 2,033 invalidation).
DeleteDiagonal busted!
DeleteIm rethinking my earlier belief..selloff after the stimulus announcement...I now believe there will be a vaccine announcement before the election, if so there will very little if any selloff, the big money always in the know. a rethink. :)
ReplyDeleteES now in 3rd wave of 'c' down, as far as I can tell.
ReplyDeleteYep! Once more into the breach...looking overhead gap penetration...
DeleteFrom the "a" on earlier chart, we do (currently) have a nice upward sloping parallel channel. Just an observation.
ReplyDeleteAfter study I think today was a thrust out of a running triangle for gold. I had concern on the diagonal that the location of 3 was higher on the EWO than 1 but gave it a chance. That did not work out.
ReplyDeleteAll the triangle requirements are there.
https://imgur.com/hNTA8Nj
Its also is getting really hard to not make the case that we are not entering a 3 of 3 on the weekly and the monthly.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDelete