There are 'sufficient' waves to be able to say that the minimum possible wave Minor 3 is "in" the market. But there are ways this (v)th wave up could extend. Here is the intraday 4-Hr chart of the ES E-mini futures again.
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| ES Futures - 4 Hr - Potential Diagonal |
Since wave (v) has already made a new high, the clear invalidation to focus on now is the invalidation for wave (v), up. Since wave (v) in a contracting diagonal must remain shorter than wave (iii), then the upper invalidation limit for wave (v) is 3,420.25. Remember, the diagonal remains a potential until all of it's waves are proven. Often times, for the "right look" there is a 'pop-over-the-top'. We haven't quite seen that yet, so patience is necessary.
Once again, with some of the major indexes higher, there are more declining stocks on the day than advancing stocks.
The divergence on the 4-Hr MACD remains in tact, and all of the relevant waves of the diagonal crisscrossed over the EMA-34 showing good form and proportion. Of note, by the settle, the ES futures had not crossed up over their former February all-time high - within points, however, of doing so.
Daily price remains over the 18-day SMA, so the bias is up, and the daily slow stochastic remains embedded. There is also not a clear reversal candle, yet.
Have a very good start to your evening and to your weekend.
TraderJoe
If you get this right, it will be really impressive no one has picked up this count especially the diagonal for the move up from 3000ish. Do you see the same count in cash for last 300 points. Thks
ReplyDeleteMy post at about 12:45 didn't make it through - called major top on TSLA at 2092, was $3.50 and 2 hours early - works for me. Best not go 2073 bid and more confirmation below 2023 / 2000.
ReplyDeleteIt seems almost universally accepted that there will be a pullback in indices and a higher September high. I suspect it's a W-X-Y that topped today or will top on Monday.
There now appears to be across-the-board capitulation of most EW analysts in the matter of any kind of bearish wave count, and financial outlets are universally reporting short interest at all time historic lows. Interestingly enough VIX has yet to fill last remaining open downside gap, and not doubt that task will be completed in the near future. Interesting times ahead....
ReplyDeleteObviously the relevance of herd sentiment in signaling important market turns...
ReplyDeleteFibonacci extensions on AAPL from two recent moves, using monthly TradeStation data:
ReplyDeleteBegin Dt (Low) - End Dt (Hi) - Retrace Dt (Low) - Fib 85.44% - Fib 161.8% - Fib 261.8%
5/2016 (89.47) - 10/2018 (233.47) - 1/2019 (142.00) - - 374.99 - 518.99
1/2019 (142.00) - 1/2020 (327.85) - 3/2020 (212.61) - 371.40 - 513.32
The first cluster (371.40 & 374.99) coincided with highs of 372.38 and 370.47 6/26/2020 to 7/3/2020
It will be interesting to see what occurs with the two significant ratios (161.8 and 261.8) that intersect between 513.32 and 518.99.
ES futures finally make the new all-time-high, just like cash did, in the after-hours open.
ReplyDeleteHi TJ,
ReplyDeleteIf EW analysts are capitulating as Tachyon wrote, it seems to me that they had a weak corrective count and now they have to come up with a bull count that Probably breaks a whole bunch of degree and time rules. Thanks for sharing your wisdom and Educating us!
I try to keep reminding myself that this tortuous count is only to the 3 of the proposed diagonal on the daily chart. Unless something changes, more chop ahead for smaller and smaller movements on the daily chart. Could go on awhile yet.
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