Two new higher highs in the ES futures were made today on continued divergences with the MACD and RSI. Cash S&P500 made the new all time high, and confirmed that we are likely in the Primary [B] wave higher (see my post of June 6th, called "Trillions" at this LINK). Interestingly, preliminary advance and decline statistics show a reversal on an up day! This means this part of the advance is narrowing even more considerably.
 |
| ES Futures - 2 Hr - New Highs on Divergence |
Unlike cash, the futures did not make a new all time high today. As I noted earlier, the futures still need about 7 - 10 points to do that from the settle.
From a psychological standpoint, Internet harassment is way up. That often precedes a turn. It's the usual - people want to tell me how great they are as wave counters - and more directly how bad I am - without producing one iota of work, or without posting one chart or one wave count. They want to criticize with no risk. Cowards - each and every one of them. But, more than that, bullish sentiment is taking a turn upward. Last week's reading on my proprietary sentiment model jumped +4 points further into the bullish camp in one week - one of the larger one-week gains, but bullishness is not yet so hot as to anywhere near warrant a major top. The CNN Fear & Greed barometer is at 73 - which is a reading of Greed, but not extreme greed.
Although nearly everyone is being pushed into risk assets by the FED policy - which makes the extreme complacency historical - locally the recent bullishness may only coincide with wave 3.
Keep in mind that price is over the 18-day SMA, so the bias is currently up, and the daily slow stochastic is still embedded. In that situation we just count until a complete pattern emerges.
Due to the harassment, comments are currently being moderated. It might take a while until yours are posted (depending on eating, sleeping, drinking .. lol).
Have a good start to your evening,
TraderJoe
Appreciate your patient labors T.J There seems to be no escaping internet cretins I fear...
ReplyDeleteWelcome.
DeleteRegarding 0/2 trendline
ReplyDeleteCan only be broken in terminal 33333 pattern. So that's got to be ending diagonal not leading according to neely of the merch low
I'd like a specific reference to that if you don't mind. The reason being I have read other information ..and infer from his book .. that Neely does not believe the leading diagonal even exists. He does not diagram that structure in the book. The 'first extension terminal' is just that, an ending pattern - not a leading one.
DeleteTherefore, how does he know how the 0 - 2 trend line works in that case? If an LD doesn't exist what is all that compression from 12 Aug to 17 Aug - chart above - followed by a higher high?!
https://www.neowave.com/qow/qow-archive-924.asp
DeleteSo my question is how do you decide which subset of rules offered by neely are additional requirements you add to Elliot's rules.
Thx .. regarding what to include and what to exclude from Neely, that is a long discussion. I will only cover two aspects now.
DeleteFirst. You have shown that his charting method doesn't work well (low of the day to high of the day depending on the order in which they occurred) because it really involves a 'sampling problem'. Which terminals do you pick & when? What about all of the waves in between? Do they have any meaning or significance?
Second, this chart from today, ES 3-min, shows that his key determinant of when to begin a new trend doesn't always work. In this diagram, a new trend should not have been started because the second wave doesn't exceed the prior high in less bars. Yet, a new high is made.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/cy85rgxk/
But this one 'does' work.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/sHSVVguC/
There are many other aspects of his work which are under investigation. Too much to go into here. I think he has truly excellent points on time, speed, and degree and I am still working on many details.
TJ
great thanks
DeleteA possible Plan B
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/IUTHqpG
Hourly DOW (YM) futures might have the legitimate basis for a triangle. Not so many higher highs like the ES futures.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/ruxzm
TJ
thanks for sharing your expertise. I have the privilege to view your insightful comments in the past few months. I wonder whether you could also write and explain on the subject of market cycle/timing or give any recommendation on which technical indicator and/or links to follow. BT
ReplyDeleteWelcome .. I'm not sure what your purposes are, but I have previously posted this work. Read it over thoroughly.
Deletehttp://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2015/11/paraphrase-of-ira-epsteins-rules-for.html
TJ
Hi TJ,
ReplyDeleteThank you for your daily reports, I read them all.
Would you post again your chart with cycles please. Are we near a peak there too?
Tks
Welcome ..price is at the apex and expecting another turn.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/BOBhsz7m/
TJ
ES futures are now at 3,395.00 and need 3,397.50 to exceed the prior ATH like cash.
ReplyDeletejust fyi - R1 daily pivot point today coincides with 3,397.25 and the prior all-time-high.
Deletejust fyi - midday adv/dec = 1,641/1,251; still pretty narrow.
DeleteI have not been able to follow for the last 5 months or so. You are indicating we are in a primary B wave up. Could you please put that into context for me by posting a longer term chart from the orthodox top of last September and indicate the cycle level the current primary waves are building?
ReplyDeleteHi PT .. that chart and post is here.
Deletehttp://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2020/06/trillions.html
TJ
Thank so much. That's where I thought you were going. What is puzzling me is that in this count the primary A wave appears to be an expanded flat. I was not aware that this was allowed in the A position. Please educate me here. Also, if it is an ex flat, now that primary B has gone over the top making it an expanded wave, is it discussion worthy that we have an ex flat as a component of a larger degree ex flat?
DeleteReview the Rules and Guidelines for flat waves in the EWP. No rule or guideline says the first three waves 'a', of a larger flat, A-B-C can't be a flat wave itself. a-b-c to A-3, then B-3 then C-5 (most commonly) or C-3, if W-X-Y. Hope it helps.
Delete@Amit..NDX not in same count; this index is much younger than the S&P500, and much, much younger than the Dow. They have different start dates, and different counts.
DeleteTJ
DeleteI know you'd disagree, but Could it be D wave of an expanding Diagonal?
Thanks in advance
@Fibo .. too cryptic to understand; wave D of expanding diagonal counted from where. And why Minor wave D, and not Intermediate wave (D), or Primary ((D)) .. please be specific.
DeleteSorry about that- From where you have Cycle v top that Could still be SC 3 top with
DeletePrimary or Cycle A down
Primary or cycle B up
Primary or cycle C down
Now in Primary or cycle D up
38.2 or 50 % retrace from here and then UP in final Cycle wave 5
@Fibo; no the question you pose has it's own answer. You are unclear of the degree being discussed.
DeleteSome thoughts (fwiw) on the unweighted version of SPX (RSP).
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/eXiv6Ws
Thanks
ET - how is the book coming along? Really can't wait to read it
ReplyDelete..making some final decisions.
Delete