Narrow is as narrow does. A look at today's advancing and declining statistics (see chart below) pretty much tells today's story in equities and the ES futures, except that early on there was a higher high, and tonight again in the after-hours there is a higher high. This is likely indicative of still being a 3rd wave.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Higher High |
We said in prior posts and comments, we would need to see price trade below 3,320 as better confirmation of a wave 4, in progress. That confirmation has not occurred yet. Until then, we just count upward - bearing in mind that wave 3 should not get so long that it can't overlap wave 1 with a wave shorter than wave 2. So far, that hasn't happened yet.
This hourly chart may apply to the ES futures.
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| ES Futures - 1 Hr - Barrier Triangle |
There are good reasons to see this as a triangle: 1) there are numerous overlaps, 2) there is a clear "barrier" that has been written about & written about in the press, 3) the three wave sequences count clearly, and 4) there has been a pop out of the triangle. The primary criticism of it is that the (e) wave is short. But, it does overlap the prior wave, as required, and it occurs in the correct position with the correct timing.
Gold futures were a little more interesting today, and after the potential (x) wave we pointed out yesterday, they made a higher high - more towards the 62% retracement level.
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| Gold Futures - 4 Hr - Dzz |
There are now two zigzags upward to form a wedge. There is nothing yet to suggest an abrupt reversal. Three zigzags upwards either as a correction or a leading diagonal are possible, but 'by the book' that is supposed to be a more rare occurrence. We'll see.
Have a good start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Thanks for the updates on both!
ReplyDeleteCarryover link if interested:
https://imgur.com/n9Tb3ho
An additional chart was added above on the hourly ES futures. Again, completely difficult waves for even an experienced wave counter.
ReplyDeleteD is one tick higher than B. I am assuming that's not allowed. So i think D ended a bit before.
ReplyDeleteD is allowed higher 'only' in a barrier triangle.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThe breakout from triangle sheems too short for the size of triangle. Market has corrected below the breakout starting point
Delete..see below..
DeleteThere were a few more twists and turns in the overnight, but the 2-Hr MACD and RSI aren't playing well together with the higher overnight highs.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/rue37
There is a way this can fit in with the prior waves. More later...
TJ
Cash just beat the prior FEB high .. likely meaning we are in the Primary [B] wave upward.
ReplyDelete..ES futures would need about 7 points to get over the high (depends how you roll any continuous contract data)
Deletemove all # and letters 1 st dev to right and PRESTO...then call out other services for not knowing anything....pat back prefusely...
ReplyDeleteNo, you stupid piece of Internet garbage. I am on record with three things:
Delete1) In my post called "Trillions" I said prices could go 'over the top' in a Primary [B] wave. That was on June 6th, it is now Aug 18th! We are over the top. I was correct.
2) On the way down, shortly after March 30th, when the fourth wave of an impulse did not develop properly I counted it as "a diagonal down" and said "it could be leading or it could be ending". It was ending. I left BOTH possibilities open, and counted flexibly upward.
3) While other market services, including professional ones, called for a 'crash' repeatedly, including many YouTubers with videos, I did not call for a crash.
My record at wave-counting is outstanding. It is better that anyone else I can find. That's why I do it ..because their wave counts and longer term scenarios have never worked out. Believe me, if there was someone better than me, I would follow him or her in a heart beat.
And what is your record. Oh. I know what it is. You are a coward. Plain and simple. You won't admit that someone knows more than you do.
ES 5-min five-waves down, but still with minimal point loss in the big picture.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/rugbk
TJ
TJ
Deleteisnt 3rd waves supposed to act under the strongest of internals?. If its a 3rd wave then how are the internals as you mentioned are"lackluster adv-Dec"
..third waves usually make the new highs/lows. This one just did over the old all-time-high. As I have noted many many times, the advance-decline line is at an all time high. That is strong internals in the last several months that just diverge some with the weak internals now. The weak internals now are because we entering/or are in the fifth wave of the third wave.
DeleteJust fyi - comments are currently on moderation for a while.
ReplyDeleteHello, TJ,
ReplyDeleteThanks for your excellent analysis. Would it possible to count this mornings spike as 3 of an ED? Especially in cash. It has very clear 3 wave structure from Friday afternoon low.
RC
yes, in cash ..I'm thinking futures needs another overnight leg down for that one.
DeleteMight this be possible?
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/ycsI24o
Thanks.
An issue. On the linked chart, what would appear to be 4th of diag does look like 5 waves down (TJs 5min chart above). Obviously, this can not work as 4th alone if 5 waves. Third wave may be more complex than implied from chart.
DeleteOr perhaps its a "c" leg of running flat?
Delete..yes
Deletetop chart
ReplyDelete3rd wave cut off by 0-2 trendline
Covered that previously. :o)
Delete..applies to impulse .. not diagonal, as I currently understand.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDelete