The words of Henry David Thoreau seem apt on this day of confusion in Elliott-Wave land. So, we will 1) simplify, 2) compare, and 3) project. Here is a close-only chart of the daily ES futures.
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| ES Futures - Daily Close - Simplified |
By simplifying, we see a second way to count the up wave from March to June. Further, it becomes glaringly obvious that the June-July correction simply can not be an Intermediate wave. In no way does it compare in price or time to the down wave from February to March. And the wave is simply so shallow that it can not be a second wave. It did not retrace 38%.
Next we compare the pattern to the simplest, lowly Elliott Wave zigzag. And, we note that wave C in an upward zigzag should have the least momentum if the pull of the market is eventually downward. And, the real C wave does. Its upward angle is shallower than that of the A wave.
Then, we project Fibonacci levels. Shown are the 50% and 62% extensions. Either or both are likely candidates. The 50% level is very close.
Conclusion? We have not seen the Intermediate (B) wave downward yet. When we do, it has some 'room to move'.
Have a good start to the evening and to the weekend.
TraderJoe
Thanks!
ReplyDeleteSome observations on poss C leg.
https://imgur.com/ZRJwYNF
Joe
ReplyDeleteAre you implying that minuet wave V in minor A wave at June top was an impulsive? or you are just giving an example.
Thanks
Try something like this with the slight truncation at the top for minute ((v)).
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/M2EPq9Ru/
TJ
Thanks Joe- Only if I had an iota of confidence in my own counting( would have saved me a lot). I had always thought that 5th, was truncated one because it was a fed day.
DeleteNDX,it appears will close outside of the upper bb for the 4th consecutive month. According to Epstein's guidelines, this leaves a 1% chance in September of closing outside the upper bb.
ReplyDeleteIn January 2020, AAPL peaked at the time, closing outside of its monthly upper bb for the 4th month in a row. Currently, it appears AAPL will close August outside of its upper bb for the 3rd month in a row leaving it a 2% chance in September of doing the same. On a weekly basis, AAPL had closed above its upper bb for 4 weeks consecutively until this week when it closed back within the bands.
Another issue to consider.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/H3OLR9B
Thanks
While I simplified the picture for clarity, I had checked, and there were two ways to have the wave lengths and the 0 - 2 trend line work. This was one of them.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/fo1VpA6L/
The question is now not dealing with the simplification, but with the details.
TJ
Keep in mind that Neely developed this technique 1) working with cash charts only - as he said 'futures charts show time deterioration', and 2) by plotting each day as two data points, with the high of the day and the low of the day plotted in order of which occurred first. So, while not a 'guideline' in the Prechter sense, we should realize the short-hand we are using is not an apples-to-apples comparison.
DeleteTJ
By the way, I had mentioned there were 'two' ways. This is the second way that works on both the Dow & S&P futures, but not cash.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/vGWXSlil/
This chart lives up to the spirit as I was counting it at the time. But most 'eye balls' would hate it. Further, it might show why Neely has counted 'non-overlapping running waves' in his book. It might be because he only counted cash and not futures.
TJ
Joe- So which count is it? Did we have an Expanded flat at June top or is it the vth wave impulse?
DeleteJOE ALSO YOU WROTE
Delete"And the wave is simply so shallow that it can not be a second wave. It did not retrace 38%."
Thats not a rule. Wave 2 can also retrace 23.6%. Thats exactly what the retrace was. From 3233 to 2964 Cash.
@ fibo, please read this paragraph from the Elliott Wave Principle.
Delete"For all these reasons, it can be difficult at times to fit corrective waves into recognizable patterns until they are completed and behind us. As the terminations of corrective waves are less predictable than those for motive waves, you must exercise more patience and flexibility in your analysis when the market is in a meandering corrective mood than when prices are in a persistent motive trend."
The 'Simplify' pattern works in both cash & futures. The flat (which is a 'running flat', and not an 'expanded flat') does not work in cash as there is no overlap to prove the wave is corrective.
@Fibo .. while not a 'rule', the Elliott Wave Principle states thus...
Delete"As illustrated in Figure 4-1, sharp corrections tend more often to retrace 61.8% or 50% of the previous wave, particularly when they occur as wave 2 of an impulse, wave B of a larger zigzag, or wave X in a multiple zigzag."
The key words there are 'tend more often'. In other words, if that is a sharp retrace for wave 2, then it should be 50 - 62%. I'm going with what is more likely, not what is less likely.
However, in the Guidelines for a zigzag, the lower typical is 38% in the EWP, and as low as 10% if there is a running triangle B wave. Neely even cites 1% B waves within zigzags only. Therefore, I am tentatively classifying this wave in the "B" wave class. And due to it's small size, it is not an Intermediate wave either.
TJ
Guideline and not a rule yes.
DeleteThanks for detailed answers.
Tj in a triangle structure can one of the
ReplyDeleteabc waves have a expanded flat B. Thanks
IF a-b-c is a zigzag in a triangle with 'c' (higher/lower) than 'a', then wave 'b' may be a flat or an expanded flat, 'provided' the start of the zigzag, the beginning of the 'a' wave, is not exceeded.
DeleteHere's another perspective.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/sTQYolz
The price-based EWO is telling you something entirely differently than the range-based EWO.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/zQBLvEvl/
Bill Williams, who basically invented the EWO, never said to use it on range-based charts. He was only working on price-based charts with the EWO.
TJ
One last chart to consider.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/xm7VZGL
Bottom line?
DeleteRegarding the A/O with "time" and "range" bars. Agreed that for same data can see different results. I have done a comparison, and added RSI. Interesting.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/82m3dzd
Thanks
Just another way to 'skin the cat'..what if you move 1, one big peak to the left. Then 3 can be moved to the left of the 0 - 2 trend line, but it becomes longer than 1. Then, four can just be more complex, and 5 can be longer than 3. Just saying, there are lots of ways to look at it, but see the next post, too.
DeleteThere is a new post started for the next day.
ReplyDelete