Three Waves down and Three Up

U.S. Debt Clock: $22.91 Trillion; prev $22.84
ES Daily Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close: Yin-Yang Candle
Market Posture: Neutral and Probing
Daily Swing Line: Neutral (Higher High, Lower Low)
Daily Bias: Up (Settle Above 18-day SMA)

The minute ((a)) wave is shown at the upper-left side  of the chart. After only three-waves down from that wave, which were called properly in real time, we said virtually any type of "three-wave" structure could form for a minute ((b)) wave, down, and possibly take us to the 18-day SMA.  That could be a zigzag or series of zigzags, a triangle or a flat.

ES Futures - Hourly - Near Equal High

Today, prices rallied to a "near equal high" with the prior wave, and certainly rallied slightly beyond that 90% retrace level shown by the Fibonacci ruler and the blue arrow. Thus, prices could have created the structure of a three-wave a:3 wave down, and a three-wave b:3 up, which could mean that the minute ((b)) wave will form as a flat wave. And, if that is the case, then the most common expectation is to form a c:5 wave downward.

One of the reasons I favor the flat interpretation at this time is that the upward wave is almost equal in time to the downward wave. So, typically, by the principle of alternation, the next wave in the set will break that pattern.

For the present, it would not be good to assume too much until prices are again below the ((B)) wave shown from Friday. The reason is, there are still ways the market could exceed the high, IF the b:3 wave of an expanded flat is to be constructed, instead.

So, we may well be in the b wave of a ((b)) wave of a (B) wave. Do you wonder why the Elliott count might be sloppy and uncertain at times? Thus, patience, flexibility and calm are especially needed at this time.

Have a good start to the evening.

TraderJoe