In my humble opinion, the large daily triangle we have been noting as of October 17th is completed. We saw a way to complete it then, and it still appears to be a done deal. We have counted the minute wave ((a)), up, as a diagonal, and it is likely a leading diagonal. See chart below.
|ES Futures - Daily - Triangle Wave X appears Completed|
As of this time, it does not appear to me that there is a satisfactory minute ((b)) wave, down, yet. There is nothing wrong or incorrect (that I have ever read) about a flat wave following a diagonal. Let me say that again: there is - from what I have read - nothing wrong with a flat wave following a diagonal.
What would be odd is another triangle of the same degree immediately following a diagonal. Why? The triangle and diagonal are "cousin" patterns. They both consist of five overlapping waves, and to have a triangle minute ((b)) immediately follow a diagonal minute ((a)) would be poor form. It would be poor alternation.
So, here is the best short term count I can develop.
|ES Futures - 4 Hr - Minute ((a)) and Flat Minute ((b)) ?|
The possibility of a flat wave in this location was discussed before, but when it apparently ab-ended prematurely, perhaps I just did not give enough 'time' for the minuet (b) wave to develop fully. Such a count would allow the minute ((b)) wave to provide both more time and more depth for a more full correction of minute ((a)). As shown, minuet (b) is shorter as an up wave than the minute ((a)) wave, and thus the pattern and its subwaves fit within the allowable degree considerations.
I think this pattern would also confuse the daylights out of others who may try to extend the triangle count. That is always to the market's advantage to do so, thus it makes some sense.
For this count, a down wave would likely begin on Monday, and perhaps go into the Federal Reserve announcement on Wednesday.
Have a very good rest of the weekend.
P.S. Readers of my blog would also do well to watch this brief video. LINK.