In my humble opinion, the large daily triangle we have been noting as of October 17th is completed. We saw a way to complete it then, and it still appears to be a done deal. We have counted the minute wave ((a)), up, as a diagonal, and it is likely a leading diagonal. See chart below.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Triangle Wave X appears Completed |
As of this time, it does not appear to me that there is a satisfactory minute ((b)) wave, down, yet. There is nothing wrong or incorrect (that I have ever read) about a flat wave following a diagonal. Let me say that again: there is - from what I have read - nothing wrong with a flat wave following a diagonal.
What would be odd is another triangle of the same degree immediately following a diagonal. Why? The triangle and diagonal are "cousin" patterns. They both consist of five overlapping waves, and to have a triangle minute ((b)) immediately follow a diagonal minute ((a)) would be poor form. It would be poor alternation.
So, here is the best short term count I can develop.
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| ES Futures - 4 Hr - Minute ((a)) and Flat Minute ((b)) ? |
The possibility of a flat wave in this location was discussed before, but when it apparently ab-ended prematurely, perhaps I just did not give enough 'time' for the minuet (b) wave to develop fully. Such a count would allow the minute ((b)) wave to provide both more time and more depth for a more full correction of minute ((a)). As shown, minuet (b) is shorter as an up wave than the minute ((a)) wave, and thus the pattern and its subwaves fit within the allowable degree considerations.
I think this pattern would also confuse the daylights out of others who may try to extend the triangle count. That is always to the market's advantage to do so, thus it makes some sense.
For this count, a down wave would likely begin on Monday, and perhaps go into the Federal Reserve announcement on Wednesday.
Have a very good rest of the weekend.
TraderJoe
P.S. Readers of my blog would also do well to watch this brief video. LINK.
This post was updated to add a recommendation to watch a brief, but important, video. See the link above in the P.S.
ReplyDeleteThis would eliminate the larger triangle issues for sure. Your c = a x .618, the apparent small triangle within b reaches 75% thrust, and "b" of the assumed triangle is exceeded as req'd. This would certainly result in a much more "normal" correction of ((a)). If my measures are close, a 1.618 ext. retrace of (a)(b) would see a corrective move between .382-.50 of ((a)). Also appears ext. retrace of (a) is around 1.618 for (b) as well. All assumes high for (b) is in. We await the verdict. :o)
ReplyDeletenice .. in my opinion, that's the way to do it.
DeleteNot tryin to force a top here, but this is what I can measure:
ReplyDeletehttps://i.imgur.com/NgpWTkG.png
https://i.imgur.com/T8LGGah.pnp
It has the overthrow, but also very close to invalidate, lets see what happens on monday.
Very close to invalidate...let`s see what happens monday
https://i.imgur.com/T8LGGah.png
DeleteAs a sub-wave of (c), i is longer than (a) which would seem to violate degree rules. This was discussed several times in previous posts.
Delete..all .. please keep in mind the $NYAD (advance-decline line) is at a new all time high as of Friday.
ReplyDeleteI am more than a bit ppuzzled by that A/D line stat that several analysts keep citing as bullish for equities. Granted it is true this market has ground higher on dwindling volume but we also now have clear negative divergences seen on multiple time frames that tell a different story. Other cracks are appearing and frankly I personally question how forthcoming CBs have been about the extent of their intervention to mask market weakness. The notion that the cabal is going to "start" Q.E. infinity next month is beyond laughable.
DeleteNew price highs resulted after $NYAD high. That's all I was saying.
DeleteTJ,
ReplyDeleteThe floor traders think is below them is thin ice.
Just an observation.
ReplyDeleteRE: DJI, say 2hr chart from Oct 3rd low. If we consider an abc up, then we have a virtual a=c. Initial move down breaking 0-B TL, retrace to around .786. Just a starting point for discussion. This would present a much different view than SPX.
https://i.imgur.com/VxBzqUX.png
ReplyDeletelooks like five distinct waves up this am.
ReplyDeletePerfect abc up off October 3 low with the C wave a classic CED.
ReplyDeleteI am now looking for a very sharp reversal to confirm.
VIX green print at new highs may be hinting at a terminal wave...
Could also be just in the middle of thrust out of triangle since 10/03.
ReplyDeleteRepeating Fib Levels
ReplyDelete3047----2.618 2007 to 2009 decline
3081----1.236 X A wave decline
3167----1.382 X A wave decline
Vix is up this am.....interesting
ReplyDeleteAAPL 5th wave invalidated. Going parabolic on daily?
ReplyDeleteI think this tripple as a very high prob of being correct, nice alternation with x1 and x2, even degree ok btw intermediate ((A)) down which triangel count does't have
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/njueb
ET cash doesn't have the overlap, so maybe the count your showed yesterday on first chart might work with the triangle minute b
Deletehttps://invst.ly/njun3
So minute a was an impulse..
DeleteRE: the abc flat count. The 125% max of thrust from small triangle of "b" has been reached.
ReplyDeleteG3 CB balance sheet is expanding thanks to "not QE".
ReplyDeleteNext on the agenda should confirmation of an exhaustion gap. If not, perhaps one more ramp to tag 3060. This market looks, smells, and feels like a dead man walking, frenetic upside ramps notwithstanding...a move below 3020 and I think we're done...
ReplyDeleteAs an aside. Drawing a TL from Jan '18, Sept '18, July '19 provides a 4th "touch" right around the 3060 area.
ReplyDeleteInteresting SPX has taken out prior high but DJIA facing formidable resistance at prior shelf of double top and printing a shooting star so far...we know the cabal can negate it but until they do it remains inter-market divergence...
DeleteThe VIX readings I find problematic. I guess it is possible that the crowd is really that bullish and feel no need to hedge against all the clear red flags the market is flying. It is also possible that reading is bogus....makes no sense whatsoever...
ReplyDeleteYardeni research does the balance sheet work every week.
ReplyDeleteLots of people looking for a top in THE SP500 3050-3100 range. I would be careful shorting in this area as we know the market loves to lead the sheep to the slaughter
ReplyDeleteTrend remains up...until otherwise....
DeleteHave a hard time believing this does not go up and check out the weekly TL.
ReplyDeleteThe fact of the matter is that all prior gaps have served as support, even when tested for several days. Mind the gaps...
ReplyDeleteES 5-min; most recent up wave getting quite wedgy
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/nkchd
TJ
Here's an update on the wedge
Deletehttps://invst.ly/nkgix
TJ
Does anyone else see a possible large CED from the Dec 2018 lows?
ReplyDeleteIf so we still need a "throw-over" of the 5th wave for DJIA...
I think there a problem with 4 being longer than 2 but that is relative to where u think the 4 ended.
DeleteIt's very close, but I think it is just shorter...
DeleteChecked the wave relative sizes and it does seem possible. In SPX possible fifth wave approaching max allowable length as compared to third wave...
ReplyDeleteI am thinking we are not quite done yet. I still expect the FIRST wave down of this B wave from hell to demolish multiple S/R shelves. Looking for one more ramp...
ReplyDeleteA new post was started for the next day.
ReplyDelete