ES Daily Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close: Trend Candle
Market Posture: Neutral and Probing
Daily Swing Line: Lower (Lower High, Lower Low)
Daily Bias: Down (Settle Below 18-day SMA)
ES futures initially gapped lower over night by about -22 points: not very much considering the recent gains. After the cash session opened, we noted that the 0 - 2 trend line had, in fact, been broken in the futures, and that a fourth wave lower was likely in the market. Two marginal higher highs resulted over the noon hour and early afternoon, and we concluded that this was likely the fifth wave up of an impulse.
A chart of the ES futures - showing this count - as it was called in near real time is shown below.
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| ES Futures - 30 Minutes - Five Waves Up |
We noted that the fifth wave up occurred on a divergence with the Elliott Wave Oscillator, and then a weak close followed the fifth wave up. The futures settled lower by about -14 points.
It is just about impossible to tell if the "five waves up" represents a "1" wave or an "A" wave. Regardless, as five-waves-up, it should be respected until or unless it's low of 2,855 breaks. Any kind of three-wave correction could follow this wave (zigzag, flat or triangle) except a triangle - alone - may not follow a "1" wave.
It is just about impossible to tell if the "five waves up" represents a "1" wave or an "A" wave. Regardless, as five-waves-up, it should be respected until or unless it's low of 2,855 breaks. Any kind of three-wave correction could follow this wave (zigzag, flat or triangle) except a triangle - alone - may not follow a "1" wave.
This really does make wave counting testy, at best, at this point. So have a lot of patience. Be flexible and expect a lot of whipping around as the algorithms just try to knock traders out of the market. Best wishes to you.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Gold Weekly up against resistance. https://imgur.com/VemFwLI
ReplyDeleteHere is the 4 hr coming out of the triangle on the weekly. I think it is 3 waves.
https://imgur.com/v7XMIPg
Here is the 30 min off the top. Only 3 waves down so far. https://imgur.com/Wp8FhkO
Count since triangle. https://imgur.com/RBJ73dt
DeleteOther thing to watch is this is a .618 running triangle.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/vaMkwHh
GL today to all.
After the five-waves up, now more than a 50% retracement downward. Lower prices can continue a bit.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/ifm78
TJ
Hi TJ, how do you count that 4th wave? and the move from there looks like 3 waves up....?
Deletebest wishes,
KAVIAAR
triangle fourth.
DeleteOn the 30min chart, without the triangle labeled, it appears that its "e" would be below its "c". Is that allowed? Cant tell for sure without labeling.
ReplyDeleteThanks.
Do what?
Deletehttps://invst.ly/igcr8
Very minor truncation in ((5)); equal highs.
TJ
..and no overlap of ((4)) into ((1)).
DeleteThanks. Your 30min chart has ((4)) at the low (which I think is C on your smaller timeframe chart). Was a little confusing. Thanks for clarifying.
Delete..hard to show it, ((4)) where the ((e)) wave of triangle is. And welcome.
DeleteDoes an island reversal still count as an island reversal if it comes in the middle of a down-trend?
ReplyDeleteI'd have to see what you mean. As it is the sentence is confusing.
DeleteI see the twin gaps in SP cash near the 2920-2940 area - which, I assume, leaves the Island above the gaps you're referring to - and that area is important, IMHO, and thus the Island reversal is an important here, while the SP remains below those gaps (as the theory goes all those trapped above will be eager sellers if we approach that area again, and if we never go back up to that region, then there's a very successful Island reversal.)
DeleteYes Kevin. I am not sure if the reversal has to come at the END of an uptrend to qualify as an official island reversal. Thanks!
DeleteNow a 62% retracement wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/igij6
TJ
Reminder: FED Powell speaks again at 1:50 ET (12:50 CT).
ReplyDeleteCNBC now indicates the FED Chair speaks at the bottom of the hour.
DeleteCNBC: FED to buy new securities to counteract repo problem; not quantitative easing (cough!) and will purchase Treasury Bills, not bonds.
DeleteFascintaing. The FED is stepping in to purchase Treasuries that the banks themselves are apparently loathe to accept as collateral in the overnight repurchase market...! Overnight rates recently spiked to an amazing 10%...
DeleteCNBC: FED also to build balance sheet and reserves.
DeleteHm am I the only one who can count 5 waves down from local high on cash index?
ReplyDeleteIf you mean from the 7th high, nope.
DeleteI think it can also be counted as 5,3,5 down. The gap will tell the tale...
DeleteThank God they weren't around during the Industrial Revolution. We would still be meddling in horse repo markets today.
ReplyDeleteSmall degree five-waves up on Fed speech.
ReplyDeletenear 78.6% retrace after the 5-waves up; watch it closely.
DeleteOne might want to keep an eye on the futures channel, hourly, as below.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/ihyy7
TJ
Fed minutes tomorrow and China meeting on tap probably means they can't flush it yet..
ReplyDeleteWould be nice if they whipped around for the rest of the week to build the right shoulder some more. Left shoulder was Aug's action.
I think we all can agree that the down move from 19th counts best as an abc at first glance, but it might be interpreted as this if it wants to?
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/ihyy7
Actually when I measure it might be a degree violation if one counts down leg as abc, because (3) might be bigger than ((A)), red line shows were max length for (3).
Deletehttps://invst.ly/ii4-2
No degree violation. Depends where (3) ends. (4) could be a flat. That was checked days ago.
DeleteNow there are 'five-waves-down' including a lower low on the day.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/iicc3
TJ