ES Daily Candle: Higher High, Lower Low, Higher Close: Trend Candle
Market Posture: Neutral and Probing
Daily Swing Line: Lower (Lower High, Lower Low)
Daily Bias: Down (Settle Below 18-day SMA)
ES futures prices were slightly lower in the overnight creating a flat wave for a small correction that was not very deep. When, the Payroll Employment Report came out lackluster this morning, the market rose immediately as the reasoning is that it will not cause the FED to back off from its accommodating stance. This created a candle known as a second "bullish white soldier" for the day.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Second White Soldier |
Price traveled up to the higher of the two orange-dashed support and resistance lines and stalled there. Should prices move higher, the 18-day SMA could be the first target - perhaps with the third bullish white soldier. Even at this point, there is some overlap on the charts. The daily slow stochastic is turning up from an over-sold condition with prices recently below the daily Bollinger Bands.
The degree labeling on the above chart remains correct. There is only one downward alternate I can see at this time, and that is a fourth wave triangle, but it is lower probability at this time. It would require a lower low than today's candle, so it will not be discussed unless today's low is exceeded lower. Please stopping writing in about ending diagonals for this Intermediate (B) wave, and posting charts about it from other services. Wave ((a)) at the beginning of August in the futures is longer in price than X1, and that invalidates any such claim of a diagonal.
Perhaps there will be more over the weekend.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
I believe the candle pattern would be better described as a Three Inside Up. The initial green candle didnt really fit the definition of One White Soldier. Just for clarification.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/V1dGc7N
If you are correct, does that imply the fourth wave triangle?
DeleteI'd have to defer to you on that!! I have a much better chance ID'ing candle patterns than I do estimating whether a triangle is coming. The latter is why I'm here. :o)
DeleteUnless I am mistaken, I think the three "white soldiers" pattern requires the real body of the subsequent candle to engulf half the real body of the prior candle.
ReplyDeleteYou are mistaken. It must cover some portion of the previous real body.
DeleteMistaken on half real body. Price of subsequent candle of pattern does have to open below real body of previous candle. A gap higher invalidates the pattern.
DeleteBollinger Bands give a buy signal when there have been 2 or more closes
ReplyDeleteoutside of the lower band and then price closes back up inside the bands.
The reverse is true for a sell signal. This was done on the SPX and Indu.
Question on the DJI -
ReplyDeleteI notice that no part of w2 violated w1 low. Could that allow for a possible exp diag, assuming that w4 overlaps and that w5 >= w3 (and is 5 waves)? This would have a 5-3-5-3-5 structure, so leading by definition. ?
Thanks.
..more waves needed for that, yet. But I have considered it.
DeleteCash MA ribbon chart - took all of Aug to break through, and now back under. Will be interesting if it reverses here again as it would setup the RS of a HnS for the bigger decline.
ReplyDeletehttps://ibb.co/60rJZTv
A possible LD on NFLX? It appears to meet all of the rules as far as I can tell: wave 3 shorter than wave 1, wave 4 shorter than wave 2, wave 5 shorter than wave 3, wave 4 ends within the price territory of wave 1, and waves 2 and 4 appear to be zigzags. If it's an LD, I guess it needs to prove whether it is wave 1 of an impulse, or wave A of a zigzag or flat.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/hg2vp
ES futures (30-min) have broken the 0 - 2 trend line.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/i4lxj
TJ
Cash has a near perfect A=C look to it off the low.
ReplyDeleteAAPL made a new high so that kills the previous 1-2 down count. But now look at waves from early Aug low. Can be a complete 5 up.
ReplyDeleteSPX has bumped the 18 day EMA
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: there is now a divergent higher high, after the 0-2 trend line break.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/i5g7w
TJ
Be aware FED chair Powell speaks at 12:00 PM CST (1 PM ET). And ((5)) does not have to be over, yet. It could be, but really needs to break ((4)) lower to prove itself.
ReplyDeleteFED Chair says "Fed must remain independent of politics". That's about it.
DeleteGold trying to hold corrective Channel
ReplyDeleteDoesn't seem impulsive from the lows. At the moment I'm guessing maybe a small ED for this last minute wave up til tomorrow to finish it off.
ReplyDeleteStacked fours and fives in cash for the top
ReplyDeleteAs far as I can tell, below 2,941 market (now at 2,940) took a degree change of some type.
ReplyDeleteAn interim top like this is plausible.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/i5urj
TJ
A new post has been started for the next day.
ReplyDelete