ES Daily Candle: Lower High, Higher Low, Lower Close: Inside Candle
Market Posture: Neutral and Probing
Daily Swing Line: Up (Higher High, Higher Low)
Daily Bias: Up (Settle Above 18-day SMA)
The diagram of the potential diagonal in the upward direction is dependent on making another new local higher high in the ES 2-hr futures, as shown below, with prices at the daily settlement.
 |
| ES Futures - 2 Hr - Potential diagonal |
A new local high above (iii) should happen within the next 12 - 16 hrs or less based on the prior waves. Unfortunately, because we are likely in the larger daily triangle, failure is an option here. In the above chart, the first three waves, a-b-c, are sub-waves of the larger degree wave (i) in order to prevent degree violations.
Then the question will become is the diagonal leading - as with a minute ((a)) wave - or is it an ending diagonal, as with a larger minute ((d)) wave in the triangle, or the end of the move altogether? (Hint: degree labeling argues slightly against the ending version and slightly against a failure). In either case, the upward count is getting temporarily mature, and a downward wave - even a minute ((b)) wave - should be expected after a slight new local high.
All night and all day - after the 2,984.75 low was made in the ES futures - the futures hammered against that level. I can count 14 to 15 spikes down against it, and it held. So, right now, it is a very important level, and breaking it lower would likely be significant.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
ET your post gave me this idea, maybe the impulsive down wave from the Trump tweet attack on FED 31/7makes more sense in this context as a C wave? And then the W terminal triangle starts..?
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/kvh69
So if correct this triangle would need to do 2 more swings around the W top?https://invst.ly/kvj5t
DeleteI mean "Y terminal triangle starts"
Delete..C wave of triangle very short in time. Usually they are longer in time.
DeleteSP500 cash, and ES 2-hr futures both have the needed new high within the time designated.
ReplyDeleteMaybe missing something, but even if this diag. is within ((a)), since it is c of abc, would it not still be ending, requiring retrace to b?
ReplyDeleteThanks
If it's a Leading Diagonal, it does not work as you suggest. Yes, I think you are missing the concept of a 'leading' diagonal.
DeleteSo a C leg diag can be leading? Interesting.
DeleteAh, I think it just dawned on me. You're calling (i) the entire move up from Oct 3rd low. If so, I see its leading as ((a)). I was seeing your (i) as just (i) of C. My misunderstanding. :o)
DeleteNo worries. Thanks for saying.
DeleteET - do you have a weekly count that you could publish?
ReplyDeleteWalter. I have published the weekly several times. This one is in the weekend video, with the X wave triangle outlined beginning around 15:30 into the video.
Deletehttp://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2019/09/weekend-video-getting-close.html
Joe
If your (i) of ((a)) is from Oct 3rd low, then waves (iii)-(v) are about (i) x .382. Does that seem a bit disproportionate?
ReplyDeleteThanks
Very. I don't make the waves. I just try to count them. The Diagonal that I counted out in real time at the May, 2015 top also only had small 0.382 retraces. But it was right on target.
Deleteyes a weekly or daily count would help me too...thanks ET
ReplyDeletepru.. I have published the weekly several times. This one is in the weekend video, with the X wave triangle outlined beginning around 15:30 into the video.
Deletehttp://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2019/09/weekend-video-getting-close.html
Joe
Was that the last push up ???????
ReplyDeleteNot being able to get past 3010...not a good sign.
SO, the Dow (YM) futures, and the ES futures eeked out new highs. The Dow cash has not. Therefore, given the 'amount of time' that wave (i) took, a wave (iii) at today's high is not out of the question. See location in second chart below.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/l1tff
But, these waves have to be watched closely. Diagonals are nerve-wracking as the waves can compress and expand somewhat erratically.
TJ
Thanks Joe,
ReplyDeleteI tend to think that count and form looks right. If you look at all the waves since September they are all Double ZZ. Thats whats missing with this last set and ideally at a new ATH.....I have resistance at 3030...good luck all.
The price action in cash on all indexes look like a rising wedge from Oct 3.
ReplyDeleteShort term clearly showing price consolidation at 3000 resistance. Last few Fridays have all witnessed CB infusions so I for one expexct the same tomorrow. Q.E. infinity...
ReplyDelete