ES Daily Candle: Lower High, Lower Low, Higher Close: Yin-Yang Candle
Market Posture: Neutral and Probing
Daily Swing Line: Neutral (Higher High, Lower Low)
Daily Bias: Up (Settle Above 18-day SMA)
IF yesterday was wave i, down of (c), as we indicated, then it is possible that today was ii up. The cash market retraced almost 62%. The futures market retraced nearly 78.6%. Unfortunately, the invalidation level for wave ii is back up at the high of 3,014.
For that reason, there is not much to update, until we get some clarity on this issue.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
ECB rate decision tomorrow morning. Maybe big move premarket.
ReplyDeleteVIX does seem to be hinting at possible 1,2 downside count. We can be sure there will be no mistaking the onset of a true third down. Clarity dead ahead it would appear...
ReplyDeleteA good intellectual exercise in disciplined application of the various rules to analyse price action.
DeleteAs a predictive methodolgy, I have never met anyone who claims to be able to exclusively apply it successfully as a trading system, but as the host has repeatedly stated...not the purpose of this site, so not sure I get your point...
ES running .786 triangle since 10/16 ?
ReplyDeleteEWO says no but so far .786 retraces are holding.
DeleteGold says something has to happen here soon.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/yhVvGW4
Sometimes I should kick myself in the head. There is a whole page full of futures to trade and I try (ES) what could be a c of d in a large triangle.
DeleteI have not found any better short term indicator than that of where CBs are buying. I was of the opinion, for example, that the move back above 2900 was bullish. Money flows are clearly now being deployed to try an maintain price above 3K. We used to call it consolidation. I suspect it is as simple as Q.E, and if that is true, it makes counting waves very difficult indeed.
ReplyDeleteStill believe we are in the e wave of c of B. Will it make a new high ? Maybe if we take out Tuesdays high at 3015.4. 3030 is still a likely target if that happens. Tomorrow is my next ST CIT. Either way staying short and will add more at 3030.
ReplyDeleteDivergence. Impulse down invalidated with new highs in ES and SPX but not so far in DJIA...
ReplyDeleteCash - is it possible for it to be a contracting diagonal from Oct 3? And (e) topped this morn?
ReplyDeleteProblem with waves 1 & 4 for a CED from Oct 3...
DeleteStepping back and looking at the daily chart, it does appear we have not had a meaningful break from the larger uptrend. We keep seeing short term sell signals via break of shorter term trend lines getting negated. We have what appears to be yet another doji being printed today be we certainly know no assumptions can be made without confirming follow-up price action...waiting for Godot....
ReplyDeleteAgain, stepping back and looking at the bigger picture, a large triangle from the July 26 high now looking more like a possibility. If so we would be now completing the D leg, with E donw just ahead, and a wave to a new high after. My EW skills are quite rudimentary so not too sure about that. The E waves down from this kind of pattern tend to be brief and swiftly reversed so that idea will be confirmed or invalidated fairly soon I would think...
ReplyDeleteI think this looks like an impulse, not the best but is is within a triangle so maybe that is what we get. c of D
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/VD90NTv
sneaky 4 of 5 of c of d.
ReplyDeletedaily d wave target hit!
ReplyDeleteThink we are getting close to a high. Waves lining up. Sunday night is the new moon, which has a good track record of being near highs. Sentiment numbers are also getting frothy. Look for Boeing to go near 225. 1.45 latest quarter earnings X 4 = 5.80 340 / 5.80 They are not out of the woods yet and 58 times earnings is unjustified. Stock needs a haircut.
ReplyDeleteIt alone can crash this market.
Truly astonishing B.A. STILL trading at these evaluations...
DeleteInteresting to see if E unfolds into the close setting up a sneaky bear trap with an upside break from the completed triangle on Monday. If that is the pattern the upside break would likely be terminal. In that case I expect 3060.
ReplyDeleteWhat if just the C wave of an A,B,C off the October 3 lows was a CED?
ReplyDelete3047 is 2.618 times the 2007 to 2009 decline. 3081 is 1.23 times the A wave down. 3167 is 1.382 and is the farthest the B wave can travel. Monday should be a key reversal......from what level....?????
ReplyDeleteThink the ED is real and we are in the Overthrow.....right now
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteYep. DJIA displaying a very different structure and very interesting inter-market divergence...fractured markets...
Deletehttps://i.imgur.com/fCwWlMr.png
ReplyDeleteWhat kind of ED is that one, with c that doesn't go beyond a?
DeletePlease see my comment below.
DeleteDJIA "could" make a new high if we just finished a fourth in that index, giving an impulsive five up off the Oct 3 low.
ReplyDeleteWhat most people don't know is that the Central Banks around the world own a ton of stock. USA, Japan, Switzerland and I'm sure the ECB and likely the bank of England. Japan owns 75% of all the countries ETF's.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-11/wtf-chart-day-boj-now-owns-75-japanese-etfs
If you've ever read the "Robber Barons" (by Josephson) Many of the big players of the era were always involved with scams trying to con people like the Commodore (Cornelius Vanderbilt). Jay Gould, Daniel Drew and Jim Fisk were always double crossing each other on stock deals. When the market turns lower these Central banks will be falling all over each other to get out. The only thing that changes is the date on the calendar.
Agreed. I think the role of CBs is vastly underestimated by many technical analysts. In fact my own view is that market price for the last several years has been primarily a function of relentless CB market participation and not so much herd sentiment as postulated by EW. How did affect the unfolding of waves I am not certain, but what we have been seeing for many years now appear to me a series of corrective, overlapping structures, rather than true impulsive wave forms.
Delete@Scotty, @Tachy
DeleteGovernments are the "ultimate" trend followers - because it requires a long time and a lot of consensus before governments act. - R. Prechter. Therefore, when Central Banks start buying gold, it is somewhere near the end of a trend. I imagine when Central Banks start buying stocks or ETF's (and amass quite a horde - as in the case of Japan), it is near the end of a trend.
@Scotty .. there is a big difference between "countries" and "country's". I checked the article it is the latter.
DeleteIf AAPL is in 5th wave from Oct 3, it can't go much higher otherwise 5 > 3, and 1 is already > 3.
ReplyDeleteThis is one of the few counts I can see that provides an invalidation that wave (v) may not become longer in price than wave (iii). As far as I can tell, wave (iv) is shorter in price and time than wave (ii).
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/mxbou
TJ
Thanks,
DeleteBut b is bigger than (ii), even BOTH subwaves of b is bigger than (ii)..
We can avoid this if we let the biggest decline on chart be ((b)), I know this makes (i) of diagpnal bigger than ((a)), but at least the subwaves of (i) is smaller than ((a)) compared to the other count
https://i.imgur.com/wJ0wuZw.png
Ditto, ET...
Delete.sorry, previously proposed triangle didn't quite work either. Still working on it.
DeleteSee post at 5:10 pm, below.
DeleteCould we also be doing d of a barrier triangle since May?
ReplyDeleteWatching VIX for confirmation of CED. It should print green prior to the close if we had one.
ReplyDeleteCash dump once again at 3016.88. Market makers trying to maintain max pain above 3K...
ReplyDeleteThe only way I can find not to violate the 'rules' or degree considerations is that minute ((a)) occurred as originally called. And minute ((b)) is 'triangle' with the pop this morning as part of the 'thrust' out of the triangle. This very shallow triangle might represent the addition of all the 'repo man money' added to the market the last few days by the New York FED.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/mybis
TJ
..found another way to avoid violating degree considerations. Please see next day's post.
DeleteI think the issue of Neely's "running variation" triangle is quite important to be resolved. The following chart tries to show the implication(s) of being correct on this issue.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/Qf9De7F
I see the issue more clearly now. Thanks for presenting it so well. I've not run into one before, but I can see how it works - as long as wave e overlaps the high before wave a, which it does. Bottom line for me is that 1.272 x Intermediate (A) = 3112, and 1.382 x Intermediate (A) = 3,180. And so I am flexible, calm and patient.
DeleteFabulous. :o) With that in mind, let's talk about the following chart. Please keep in mind that I completed this BEFORE your above response. But I'd like an objective analysis of my attempted current objective analysis. :o) This relates to the GDX situation that originally gave rise to this subject of discussion.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/PVMdYDz
Thanks in advance.
DeleteRather than getting hung up about whether it qualifies as a triangle or not, it's much easier to count formations like that as a running triple combination. Also, it's important to note that wave e does NOT overlap the beginning of wave a in NYA.
DeleteCORRECTION: The GDX running triangle item #4 should say "e" is shorter than "d".
DeleteThanks.
Grey .. here is just another consideration. How do we consider Neely's "running variation" from this scenario until we see the post-pattern behavior?
Deletehttps://invst.ly/nbny-
Please consider the following: 1) what is a triangle doing directly after a diagonal? They are 'cousin' patterns, and it makes for poor alternation. 2) Has wave minute ((b)) 'really' already had enough 'time' to correct how long minute ((a)) took?
You will notice in Neely, that he is not a big fan of diagonals or the terminology.
TJ
Grey - regarding GDX; nothing short of a fifth wave failure in a well described diagonal. See notation on chart.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/nc3bx
TJ
Can I suggest that this wave up be counted as an impulse? a becomes i, b becomes ii, (iii) becomes iii, (a) becomes the end of iv, and now we are in v. If v=i target is 3079.50.
Delete@Bob, there has been no break of a 0 - ii trend line for that consideration. Please see the next day's post.
DeleteA new post has been started for the next day.
ReplyDelete