No Resemblance

U.S. Debt Clock: $22.82 Trillion; prev $22.81
ES Daily Candle: Higher High, Lower Low, Higher Close: Outside Candle Up
Market Posture: Neutral and Probing
Daily Swing Line: Neutral (Higher High, Lower Low)
Daily Bias: Down (Settle Below 18-day SMA)

If you followed the ES futures market overnight, you know that the suggestion we have been making for days came true last night. There was a lower low which did not exceed the 2,855 level, lower. And then prices headed higher to exceed the high of yesterday's candle and close higher. The daily chart is below.

ES Futures - Daily - Outside Candle

The difficult thing, of course, is that the cash market bears almost no resemblance to the futures market. The 40+ point over-night dip in the futures? Non-existent in cash. Notice the missing tails of the cash market in the comparison chart, below.

ES Futures 4-hr vs Cash 1-Hr

Also notice that in the after-hours tonight, the futures are putting on a "fifth wave up" today which the cash S&P500 market can not because it is closed. Perhaps SPY can. Regardless, more and more invisible waves to deal with.

Now back to the first chart, the usual first target is the 18-day SMA at approximately 2,960. There may be some resistance there. If a higher overall high in the futures is made then we'd need to see a pull-back that holds the lows to continue a third wave or larger C wave count, upward.

Oh, and here is the hourly chart, again. I doubt anyone can document that they called this sequence as we did.

ES Futures - Hourly - New Local Low as Projected for Wave c

Remember that our rationale for this count was that the correction downward probably needed to become longer in time than the impulse upward. We said that would likely happen with last night's over-night waves. It did. If you are curious, the b wave may have been some type of triangle. We're just showing its 'highest high'.

Have a good start to the evening.

TraderJoe