ES Daily Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close: Trend Candle
Market Posture: Neutral and Probing
Daily Swing Line: Up (Higher High, Higher Low)
Daily Bias: Up (Settle Above 18-day SMA)
Yesterday, we said we suspected the larger daily triangle was, in fact, completed. Today's higher closing high day sealed that case. Stocks gapped up moderately at the open, made their high of the day (in futures) of 3,042.75 at 10:30 am ET, and then began to push downward. By the end of the session, neither the high or the day or the initial low of 3,034.50 in futures was exceeded.
The fact that we have made the higher all-time daily high - while APPL exceeded it's diagonal - tells me that the daily and weekly count I've published of the Intermediate (B) wave, is very highly likely the correct one.
I will publish more charts with counts once we find out the answer to this question: "Are we headed down in minuet (c) of minute ((b)) as of today's high, or, are we possibly still in the minute ((a)) wave upward?"
The answer depends on whether there are additional overnight gaps upward or not in the next few days. If we started with the diagonal, but add a full third, fourth and fifth wave, then it would be possible to consider a 'five wave move up', starting with a diagonal. As of this time, we are not there.
Therefore, it is still time to remain flexible, patient and calm. So far, the longer term road map has gone as plausibly laid out in the weekend video. Higher highs have resulted. AAPL has busted it's diagonal higher, and therefore, this is likely NOT the ending diagonal Intermediate or Primary fifth wave that several sites and casual analysts are ascribing to this wave in error.
The daily slow stochastic remains embedded over the 80 level, and the price bias remains up as long as prices are over the 18-day SMA.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Joe, thanks for all your detailed charts and explanations. Do you have a longer term count? Thanks Sam
ReplyDeleteWelcome. The long term count appears in the video in the September 1, post at this link:
Deletehttp://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2019/09/weekend-video-getting-close.html
TJ
I believe this to be valid. If it would hold I would think es would have trouble.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/4dCmdW9
EED more likely could be c of X. This would give ES time to finish its b wave.
DeleteJoe,
ReplyDeleteQuestion re: degree for the Minor Y wave. If I understand correctly, Minor Y should be longer in time and greater in price than any of the minute waves comprising Minor X? Therefore one would expect Minor Y to last, at a minimum, 39 daily bars, while rising at least 254 points?
If the above is correct, that implies from the terminus of Minor X that Minor Y would last until at least 26-Nov with a minimum price target of 3109 before Int. B concludes. Thoughts?
While your logic is not correct (nothing says wave 5 in an impulse 'has' to be longer than smaller degree wave (iii) of 3 in the same impulse), this question has been asked and answered several times now. For Intermediate (B), 1.27 x (A) = 3,120 and 1.38 x (A) = 3,190. Those would simply be the usual expectations of a (B) wave, and are certainly allowable.
DeleteTJ what do you have for AAPL off the Jan lows? Are we in a C of an ABC up from there maybe? And B as a triangle?
ReplyDeleteBy measurement, hourly APPL has just entered it's wave iv, from the low following the diagonal. That's because it just broke it's o - ii trend line, as in the chart below.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/nm7v1
TJ
IF we make a new high this morning, then these non-overlapping waves should be considered as a "set", meaning wave minute ((a)), which started as a diagonal, could be extending itself into an impulse. More later.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/nm6h0
TJ
..ES futures & SP500 cash have the new high; let's see if the wave relationships stay such that ((5)) << ((3)), as ((3)) < ((1)). We must consider than minute ((a)) is still in progress, as this could be an acceptable third wave.
DeleteTJ
If this is an impulse from oct 3, then we have a B wave in diagonal of (1) that is two degrees smaller but still way bigger than (2)..not likely?!
DeleteIF this fib level is the top (3047).....there should be a quick and strong decline relatively soon. Breaking below 3030 should be the first step.
ReplyDeleteStrength in order
ReplyDeleteSPX +.21%
DJI +.09%
OEX -.18%
NDX -.56% Naz indexes and Oex (top 100 S&P stocks) are weak.
A new post has been started for the next day.
ReplyDelete