In the event the market makers want to try to fake us all out, here is a potential completion count for the Intermediate (B) wave. The count is read as Minor Y = Minor W in time, and Minor Y of Intermediate (B) ends as a terminal triangle.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Y = W in Time |
The reason for this count was the "three wave" up wave to Friday's minute ((e)) wave that I asked readers of the blog post to watch for down side overlap on. The down side overlap did occur in the overnight futures. This makes it somewhat problematic to get an upward wave - unless such an upward wave starts with a diagonal. We can certainly await to see if an upward diagonal forms. Notice that the ((e)) wave does not end on the ((a)) to ((c)) trend line - just like an ((e)) wave is supposed to in a triangle.
If an upward diagonal A or 1 wave forms from here, then the entire triangle structure becomes Minor X because the entire triangle would be longer in time than W which would mean that that the triangle is of the same degree as W. In the case of the alternate, the triangle would be a continuation structure instead of a terminal structure.
Better confirmation of the completion count would occur if the futures trade below the minute ((d)) wave of the triangle.
Have a good start to the afternoon.
TraderJoe
P.S. After the settle - the ES futures settled above the 18-day SMA, so prices - for the time being - have a positive bias. And the daily slow stochastic did not enter the over-bought zone by the settle. So, there will not be a further update. Key your eye on the overnight futures for the next several days.
P.S. After the settle - the ES futures settled above the 18-day SMA, so prices - for the time being - have a positive bias. And the daily slow stochastic did not enter the over-bought zone by the settle. So, there will not be a further update. Key your eye on the overnight futures for the next several days.
Was just going to post this chart. It is on your last post.
ReplyDeletehttps://i.imgur.com/5dJYRey.png
My earlier thought was we would barely make a a new ATH.....But not to be. The daily Algo has been in sell mode since Sep 26th. A down week this week will roll the Weekly into sell mode as well.
ReplyDeleteI need to stay on an "even keel", here. The price declines are minimal, price is still above the SMA-18, and we could just "be fighting a battle at the line-in-the-sand". Further, the futures are not "impulsing" down, yet. If anything it's looking like a diagonal downward after Friday's down wave. So, let's all be patient and flexible. So again, the above chart is "potential" only.
DeleteCan a triangle be a Y wave?
ReplyDeleteThat's new for me...
You can see a Y wave as triangle in the elliott wave principle, section 1.7 Corrective Waves, figure 1-47
Delete6Q - the 1-47 figure you point out is in "the wrong direction", and W is formed differently than this one. You can see the type I am referring to in Neely, Mastering Elliott Wave, page 8-5, figure 8-2b titled "double combination, ending with a triangle".
DeleteHere's a count since last Friday's truncation high on the ES 15-min; every significant wave is on an opposite side of the EMA-34, and there may be a triangle on the very right-hand-side.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/k8wim
TJ
...potential triangle now validated by crossing back down over the 'a' wave; can go lower in the triangle (e) wave - if it wants, but it has done all it 'needs' to do.
DeleteWe again have overlap; so let's see if the e wave holds.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/k956l
TJ
The e wave did not hold. If it's a larger triangle, then a new c wave would be at 78.6%.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/k9wec
TJ
I had that as a final "top" too,fractals, but it is more beautiful when there is an Ewt count on it. Very nice work Joe!
ReplyDeleteThanks Johan. It still needs to be proven ; )
DeleteA brief P.S. was added to the post. No further update tonight.
ReplyDeletethe subscription services continue to crank out their forecasts...although they are consistently wrong, their subscribers continue to pay...the subscription services can't tell you what's going to happen tomorrow yet subscribers want to believe the gurus know what will happen weeks, months, or years in advance...simply laughable...kudo's to Joe...he usually gets it right and does it for free!
ReplyDeleteSo why not a running triangle starting at W and ending and green circle d?
ReplyDelete@BBR .. that's what the Red X means, and is fully explained in the post.
DeleteSorry about that. Never even saw it. Been a long week and its only Tuesday morning. Thanks again and again!
Deletenp .. welcome.
DeleteWhat you have posted is what Neely calls a non-limiting contracting triangle, which often occurs at the end of a complex/combination correction. However, according to Neely, one of the defining characteristics of a non-limiting triangle is that it continues "right into, or very near, the apex point of the converging trendlines." (page 5-30) The current market is not even close to doing that.
ReplyDeleteDon't have access to my book right now to check myself. One of the ways in which it reaches that apex is by the e-wave forming a contracting triangle, correct? In which case the ((e)) in the chart would turn out to be (a)-((e)).
DeleteNot arguing for or against the count, just checking on the academics.
The 2 trendlines of the triangle have to connect ((a))to((c)) and ((b))to((d)), just as Joe has drawn them. That means the intersection of the converging trendlines would be way out to the right of the chart.
DeleteThe ES has exceeded the prior high. So far, it looks like we have to go with the Red X, and diagonal A wave up.
ReplyDeleteShooting star negated by price action. Money flows around 2970 was a dead give-away.
ReplyDeleteMarket analysis now has to contend with Q.E. infinity....
ET wouldn't it be a degree violation that lower degree down leg b of triangle is bigger than all of X?
ReplyDeleteErik ..that possibility is what made me place the red X.
DeleteThanks!
DeleteHi all,
ReplyDeleteThe number I thought we would reach for the high was 3030. Beyond that the 1.23 of the large A wave extension is 3081. We are doing now what I thought we would complete last week. My next CIT is tomorrow....maybe that will get us the top at 3030. Good luck all.
That is the target suggested by the current bull flag...assuming the flag holds....
DeleteHere is what the diagonal A wave up might look like in the Dow futures (which did not truncate like the ES did).
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/kht9b
TJ
Thanks TJ
ReplyDeleteThe usual afternoon stall / squeeze job...
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/kicta
TJ
I used to believe that triangles (at least EW triangles) were penultimate waves but no one paying attention can credibly defend that view, whatever the degree considered. I agree we have yet another one underway but I would not assert we have only one more move up based on that structure.
ReplyDelete"running triangles" are not necessarily so.
Delete"regular triangles" are always.
Simple.
higher highs, are now (b) wave or E-D v of C, up, of (iii) of A.
ReplyDeletenow c wave of FLAT or (iii) of A, done.
DeleteIt is possible that the up wave is done, because a (b)wave would be longer in time than wave iii, red, and that would seem to violate wave degrees.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/kiv7k
TJ
There is now a new post for the next day.
ReplyDelete