ES Daily Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close: Trend Candle
Market Posture: Neutral and Probing
Daily Swing Line: Up (Higher High, Higher Low)
Daily Bias: Up (Settle Above 18-day SMA)
Yesterday at the end of the session we counted five-waves-up, and showed that chart. We indicated that the 18-day SMA could be a first target. Today, on tariff and trade talk day, the market was brilliantly hopeful of a completed deal, rallied up through the "line in the sand" and closed there - but had it's hopes dashed a bit at the very end of the session and there was a bit of "sell on the news". The news was somewhat disappointing as it is a phased deal and, today, only phase one was announced - but it still has to be signed yet.
First a look at the daily chart. The daily slow stochastic indicator is still pointed up, and it is not in over-bought territory.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Higher High |
The Dow futures (YM) just managed to eek out an impulse with an extended first wave today. The chart is below. The ES futures missed it by just 1 point, and may have simply been a truncation due to the number of stocks in the index.
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| Dow (YM) Futures - 15-minutes - Completed Impulse |
The chart above simply carries on from yesterday's "five waves up". We think if it is not counted this way, then several degree violations result. The strength of the count in the ES was that wave (iii) came out precisely at 0.618 x wave (i) which is very, very often what one sees when the first wave is the extended wave. Wave (v) is less than (iii) which is less than (i), and no rules are broken.
Have a very good start to your evening and to your weekend.
TraderJoe
Nice count ET...
ReplyDeleteI am wondering, is it possible that wave iv takes some more time and is still in progress? because i have a hard time counting five waves up in that last move.... or maybe some weird ending diagonal. if so, it is bad that sign for markets that it ended in truncation i think...
best wishes
KAVIAAR
Thx. Problem is that if the current (iv) is only 'a' of iv, then it would seem to be a degree violation because it would be larger than all of (ii). As I said - most other counts seem to produce degree violations.
DeleteWhat about v needing
ReplyDeleteone more c wave, arriving at 2996 ?
A higher high is possible in several different scenarios. Nothing rules it out at this point.
DeleteKeep a keen eye on the overnight futures to see if there is overlap or not. I only have three waves up from the Oct. 3 low. More later.
ReplyDeleteThe ES futures did, indeed, overlap downward.
DeleteI believe Friday the 11th was a truncated E wave of the B wave
ReplyDeletethat started in Dec of 2018...My earlier thought was we would barely make a a new ATH.....But not to be. The daily Algo has been in sell mode
since Sep 26th. A down week this week will roll the Weekly into sell mode as well.
Shooting star was indeed impressive. Technical indicators can be over-ridden by CB intervention. We have seen this far too many times to not recognize how it has been affecting price action. At the moment they have defended the 2900 S/R price shelf with gusto, and imho that level has to be permanently breached to indicate a top is in. It is only a matter of time....
DeleteYes, there is a way that Intermediate (B) could have terminated in this triangle. I have made a separate daily interim post outlining it.
DeleteOne of the few counts I have seen that considers an extended first wave. Fourth wave overlap would be a good initial signal. Take out of the October 3rd low would imho be fairly conclusive....
DeleteA new Interim Post was made.
ReplyDeleteWas just going to post this chart.
ReplyDeletehttps://i.imgur.com/5dJYRey.png
Scotty, smaller degree "a" appears larger ( time and distance) than larger degree "B"...
DeleteWatching the money flows is really amazing. Battle around 2970 will tell the tale short term...
ReplyDelete