ES Daily Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close: Trend Candle
Market Posture: Neutral and Probing
Daily Swing Line: Up (Higher High, Higher Low)
Daily Bias: Up (Settle Above 18-day SMA)
Yesterday at the end of the session we counted five-waves-up, and showed that chart. We indicated that the 18-day SMA could be a first target. Today, on tariff and trade talk day, the market was brilliantly hopeful of a completed deal, rallied up through the "line in the sand" and closed there - but had it's hopes dashed a bit at the very end of the session and there was a bit of "sell on the news". The news was somewhat disappointing as it is a phased deal and, today, only phase one was announced - but it still has to be signed yet.
First a look at the daily chart. The daily slow stochastic indicator is still pointed up, and it is not in over-bought territory.
|ES Futures - Daily - Higher High|
The Dow futures (YM) just managed to eek out an impulse with an extended first wave today. The chart is below. The ES futures missed it by just 1 point, and may have simply been a truncation due to the number of stocks in the index.
|Dow (YM) Futures - 15-minutes - Completed Impulse|
The chart above simply carries on from yesterday's "five waves up". We think if it is not counted this way, then several degree violations result. The strength of the count in the ES was that wave (iii) came out precisely at 0.618 x wave (i) which is very, very often what one sees when the first wave is the extended wave. Wave (v) is less than (iii) which is less than (i), and no rules are broken.
Have a very good start to your evening and to your weekend.