Short Post Today

Market Outlook: Likely Long Term Top Identified, Now likely in Minuet (ii), up
Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed higher; DJUtil lower
SPX Candle: Higher High, Lower Low, Higher Close - Bullish White Soldier
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)

The morning started with a new lower low. That was OK, as we said not to start upward counting until the a wave was exceeded higher. Early in the morning, near the new low of 2672 after downwardly filling the gap shown by the black circle - which I warned yesterday could be filled, I stated it could still be the b wave down. Apparently, it was as the market began tacking on 15 and 20 points, upward, at a time.

So that things don't get too confusing, here is the same ole hourly chart first, so you can see that it is still the c wave up of minuet (ii) we are in.

S&P500 Cash Index - Hourly - Minuet (ii) Up Likely

Again, the count is based on measurements, and the EWO is now clearly green, rising and headed upward. I have no more to say today, other than if you are interested in how I made the projection in real time in the chart below based on degree labeling, then please read my comments from yesterday beginning at 14:45 EST, or 02:45 pm.

ES E-Mini S&P500 Index Futures - 15-Minutes - Flat Projection

The bottom line is, as you can see from the Fibonacci ruler, at the location of ((B)), a wave i sub-wave would have become longer in price than wave 1, which is not allowed. 

Therefore, it stood to reason that the last waves at the top were part of a FLAT, and, specifically, the ((B)) wave of a flat, and that a strong ((C)) wave down would follow. Which they did - projected ahead of time - although I used cash and not futures for the measurement. From 2,737 the market declined to 2,712; a 25 point decline and it provided a warning to commenters - ahead of time. The down wave came right on schedule. Wave ii had to main 18 points net distance traveled, and it did! I would expect wave 3, up to become a 1.618 extension.

That is the benefit of understanding degree labeling as best as possible. I am still learning about it. I hope you are too.

And I hope it helps. 

In subsequent days and weeks as the holiday's approach I am going to be reducing my frequency of commenting during the days and evenings. Again, my only intention is for you is to learn how to use these techniques, not to be performing continual real time analyses. I hope today's intraday chart demonstrates a bit of how to go about it.

Have a good evening.
TraderJoe

P.S. ES futures count of a diagonal (with overlap at the wave ((2)) low is posted below. Such a diagonal could be finished or it may go to 2,753 MAX.

ES E-Mini S&P 500 Futures - 15 Minutes - Potential Contracting Diagonal