Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed higher
SPX Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close - Inside Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)
Today made a new intraday high in the cash S&P500 index. This is almost "proof-positive" that our count of an A wave up, and three waves down in a B wave (or part of a B wave) was correct. Because of the complexity and overlaps in the ES 30-minute futures, we can only count it as a triple zigzag upward (unlike the incorrect and arrogant criticism of the A wave upward).
Here is the ES 30-minute chart.
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| ES E-Mini S&P500 Futures - 30-Minutes - Rare Triple ZZ |
Please notice in a structure like this, it is the overlaps that prevent the impulse count. As Ralph Nelson Elliott implores us, always count like an impulse, unless you simply can not. The overlaps will almost always happen in double and triple zigzags.
The clear purpose of the relatively rare triple is to get the futures to the 90% level, as shown by the Fibonacci ruler, on the right. The cash market actually went over the top. And we simply do not know the Z wave is done yet, but it seems close.
Yesterday, the testy reader implored me, "If you will only count a 5-minute or a 1-minute chart", you will see it's an a-b-c upward from 2709 instead of an impulse. Ok. So, I took up the challenge. Here is the 1-minute chart.
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| S&P500 Cash - 1 Minute - Impulse from 2709 |
I'm trying to tell you, this gentleman is one of the poorer wave counters I have encountered. His ego gets in the way of his objectivity. Or else, as I said before, maybe he is trying to get other people to jump on his almost always short bandwagon. It's too bad. He seems smart. I only took up the challenge because if I was incorrect - which often I am - I wanted to learn from it.
I hope other's do too.
I will not repeat this exercise, and if the reader does not learn from it, then it will have to be dealt with. The first step on his part would be an apology.
Remember the election results begin becoming available tonight and we have a very likely FLAT on the table. So, there could be lots of volatility.
Have a good and interesting evening.
TraderJoe
Does the T ZZ eliminate the possibility of an expanded flat?
ReplyDeleteThanks again for the teachable moments!
Welcome Verne. It is not for certain the Z wave is over. It looks like it's getting close. Cash went over the top. So, if they get the cash up to 105% or more, then the expanded flat is possible. But, there is also another structure called an "elongated flat" - with just a 100% (b) wave that can let the (c) wave travel down more than expected.
DeleteBTW, I forgot to thank you for your oil analysis of a few weeks back. It was counter to what a lot of other analysts were saying but I went with your count.
ReplyDeleteMonster trade on USO 15.00 strike puts. I feel like I need to pay you a finder's fee!!
:)
I'm good. Thanks for saying.
DeleteLooks good to me and thanks for all your fantastic posts. It has really helped with my elliott wave counting and understanding.
ReplyDeleteET: I totally agree with your count of triple zigzag; actually, I came up with the exact same count as yours, and was happy that we are on the same boat. Yesterday, I mentioned the possibility of a FLAT, and it turned out to be the case, so far. Given the time ratio, I anticipate tomorrow will open with a big gap-down, to touch the 2700 area, and then a huge reversal that will kick off the next upward IM.
ReplyDeleteVery glad we agree. I am trying to develop only 'supportable' counts.
DeleteJoe, the count you present today on the 1 min SPX is different than what you presented yesterday. Yesterday, you had wave 3 ending at 2735.06. Today, you have it ending at 2732.31. By moving the end of wave 3, you have now solved the problem that your previous wave 3 only had 3 waves, and violated the 0-2 trendline, however, you have now created another issue in regards to time. Your count yesterday had wave 2 taking 7 minutes, and wave 4 taking 230 minutes. That, in itself was a major problem, but by moving the end of wave 3 to 2732.31, you have compounded the time problem by adding an additional 35 minutes to wave 4. So, now your wave 4 is 265 minutes, while your wave 2 is still only 7 minutes. I still believe that the simple 5:3:5 abc count is the correct count, as it's perfectly symmetrical and has no time problems (which you normally preach here as being so important to correct wave counting.) Also, the 5:3:5 abc count is consistent in the futures.
ReplyDeleteI wasn't indicating exactly where yesterday - just which wave it was. And I knew the end of the triangle overlapped it. You are completely wrong about 2 & 4. It breaks no rules. It also allows the prediction of today's higher high, and your counts continue to fail. Badly.
Deletejoe if this is a second wave from 2600... feels like we are in A or C ... not B .... we will find out soon... thanks
ReplyDeleteNo. Marc .'Count & measure.' Don't 'feel'.
DeleteI'm sorry Joe. I love reading this blog, but I want to be sure I understand correctly: counting the wxyxz is the b part of an abc (b) following the (a) wave up from 2600 to 2755. And since the wxyxz is a "b" up, we are expecting a c down to complete the downward (b) (of the 2600-2755 (a ) ). At the end of the next c down, we still expect the (c) upward, to complement that 2600-2755 (a). Did I get all that straight? I'm sorry for such daft questions Joe. It's the wxyxz that's throwing me. I don't really know how to count that...I need to go study some more. :(
ReplyDeleteYes. It is likely a b wave of (b) with a (c) down likely to follow before the c wave of (ii), up. What a mouthfull.
DeletePotential of a contracting ending diagonal for the c wave of Z of the (b) wave as of noon today. Watching it closely.
ReplyDeleteES hourly reversal candle from 2801.25 (bearish engulfing); parameters of diagonal : no higher than this candle, and there must be follow-through to the down side.
DeleteThe diagonal has just busted on the futures. Must be a 'different' upward count. Still looking at it.
DeleteOK. Got it. With all three-wave overlapping sequences; had to be a leading diagonal first wave of ((C)), up. Marc was correct, the measurements show. I have it diagrammed now, and will show it tonight. We are at 2,808 as the high, with the 61.8% retrace of the downward diagonal at 2,811.
DeleteSo (b) waves of expanded flats is allowed > 1.618 of (a)? Isn’t the (c) wave going to be unproportional long to to (a)? Maybe it will end up as a running flat with shorter (c)..
ReplyDelete/ Erik
No problem with a running flat.
DeleteWell done with the intraday diagonal so far!
ReplyDeleteThanks. See 2 PM post above.
DeleteHmm this is a hard one..really starts to look like it’s the bigger C wave of (ii)
Deletec=a at 2833 i believe
Delete2811 is 61.8 big move down
remember the 12 12 i mentioned from 2016 - i do think its still good with no wave violations. So then the gaps are third waves of third waves ... idk ... need bull and bear options
See 3 PM post.
DeleteAll parameters for a leading diagonal intraday ok
ReplyDelete