Tuesday, November 27, 2018

Overlapping Wave Day

Market Outlook: Likely Long Term Top Identified
Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed higher; RUT lower
SPX Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close - Trend Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)

All day today the market made a series of overlapping waves. About 11 AM we said a contracting diagonal could be forming on the intraday chart. As a result, there is no change to the count.

S&P500 Cash Index - Hourly - Overlapping Waves in a Wedge

Now, no matter how one tries to count the down waves in an impulse as a 1,2,i,ii, the second ii in such a count has become longer in time than the first two. And that would be a degree violation which is not allowed. And, again, the waves remain in a rather 'perfect' channel which could indicate a double zigzag, lower, forming.

 Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe

P.S. Here is an up count on the current wave that does not violate degree labeling. All individual waves within (5) must remain shorter than (3), and they currently are. This is the half-hour chart.
S&P500 Cash Index - Half-Hour Chart - Potential Expanded Flat

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33 comments:

  1. marcNovember 27, 2018 at 4:35 PM

    thanks joe

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  2. marcNovember 27, 2018 at 4:42 PM

    and quick question... why do you expect such a small X wave in terms of price and time? is it because of the channel? if we put the channel aside are there any rules/guidelines for X wave of WXY double zig zag?

    as always thanks in advance

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    Replies
    1. marcNovember 27, 2018 at 5:21 PM

      and looks like we may break upper limit on diagonal in futures will have to see in morning on cash.

      Delete
    2. Elliott_TraderNovember 27, 2018 at 6:01 PM

      'Such a small' is an opinion. We already known it is the largest up wave in time. That is a measurement based on the number of bars that any person can replicate.

      Delete
    3. Elliott_TraderNovember 27, 2018 at 6:03 PM

      The futures had a first spike higher in the overnight as P_Tom noted. Futures may have their own measurements different than cash.

      Delete
  3. Pittsburgh TomNovember 27, 2018 at 4:48 PM

    What might the ramifications be of a significant break of the upper channel boundary?

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    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderNovember 27, 2018 at 6:05 PM

      Would have to conclude the C wave down ended on the three lower lows as a diagonal. But, it's ugly.

      Delete
  4. BillNovember 27, 2018 at 8:13 PM

    Joe, I like your idea and I'd like to see a higher open with close on the low. A 1 3 bar. 13 day ema is about 10 points or so.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Erik BNovember 28, 2018 at 7:54 AM

    Joe, what about a zz for the X wave on futures? X waves as triangles are less common?

    Thanks!

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  6. frommiNovember 28, 2018 at 9:02 AM

    Why can`t wave b of your x wave be the low and we are already in wave c of the flat? 90% level was nearly hit and seasonality/turn of the month is bullish for the next 4 weeks.

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    Replies
    1. Walter KrajewskiNovember 28, 2018 at 9:14 AM

      I think "nearly" isn't 90% - and 90% is the minimum required, but I'm definitely not the expert!

      Delete
    2. frommiNovember 28, 2018 at 9:35 AM

      In the futures market the 90% level was missed by 2 points over thanksgiving and there was a new low at that time.

      Delete
    3. Elliott_TraderNovember 28, 2018 at 1:43 PM

      The best alternate count - which would only be activated after crossing 2,747 (cash) - would be a double-zigzag up. Since, the 90% level down was not made, there is nothing to prevent the up count from being W-X-Y where W is three-waves up to 2,815; X is down to the 2,631 low, and then there would be three more waves up for the Y wave.

      Delete
  7. Elliott_TraderNovember 28, 2018 at 11:24 AM

    Next best count: diagonal is all of 1, gap up is 3 or part of 3. Down move today is 4 or ii of 3. A five-wave up move could still be the 'c' wave of X.

    Market gaps and stalls so badly, it makes counts subject to a high degree of error at this point. What is needed is a) overlaps, b) confirmation and c) possibly trading back within the channel to suggest anything lower.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Pittsburgh TomNovember 28, 2018 at 11:29 AM

      Not Elliott based but was thinking that everyone is so obsessed with the G-20 that we may drift for the rest of the week before volatility resumes. Now that I've put that out there watch the market take off in one direction or the other! LOL

      Delete
    2. Pittsburgh TomNovember 28, 2018 at 12:03 PM

      Guess I forgot about powell's speech. LOL

      Delete
  8. Elliott_TraderNovember 28, 2018 at 12:07 PM

    Up move creates degree violations unless the center section (yesterday's proposed diagonal) is an overlapping fourth wave triangle.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderNovember 28, 2018 at 12:15 PM

      Now five wave up in a clear channel with extended fifth wave sequence. For the possible expanded flat, then 2.62 x A + B = 2,730.83

      Delete
    2. Erik BNovember 28, 2018 at 12:29 PM

      Terminal of potential triangle? 2665?

      Delete
  9. Elliott_TraderNovember 28, 2018 at 12:41 PM

    I have posted the half-hour chart that does not contain degree violations as a post-script above.

    ReplyDelete
  10. KSNovember 28, 2018 at 1:45 PM

    Thanks Joe, I think the last wave within (5) is NOW longer than wave(3). Is that accurate?

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    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderNovember 28, 2018 at 2:03 PM

      Not sure what you are getting at; (5) is the extended wave in the sequence and each sub-wave is smaller than (3).

      Delete
    2. marcNovember 28, 2018 at 2:23 PM

      joe
      i must let you know excellent work on your behalf. By removing the 1212 nest to downside you opened door to accepting market needs put in work to upside. Whether your count is going to change is irrelevant as far as your contribution thus far. I think its now in 3/3 off bottom with first move a diagonal as i mentioned yesterday. Thanks again

      Delete
    3. KSNovember 28, 2018 at 2:25 PM

      Thanks for responding. I know exactly what you mean but the last sub-wave of wave (5) from 2684 which you have marked as wave 5 to complete wave ((c)) is larger than the whole of wave (3)

      Delete
    4. Elliott_TraderNovember 28, 2018 at 2:34 PM

      V . thats ok. Each bar is less in length. That's how the extended wave in the sequence becomes the extended wave; each sub-wave, each bar, is smaller.

      Delete
    5. Elliott_TraderNovember 28, 2018 at 2:36 PM

      Marc .. just fyi, the diagonal wave i scenario created a degree violation with the length of the first sub-wave in the sequence. And, if the whole first wave to the diagonal is the first sub-wave it is longer than the ((A)) wave, which also created a degree violation.

      ..and thanks.

      Delete
  11. Pittsburgh TomNovember 28, 2018 at 2:00 PM

    So your 0 point on the postscript chart would be subminuette .w and the possible expanded flat would be subminuette .x - then .y down to complete minuette (b) down- Then then minuette (c) up to complete minute((2)) up?

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  12. Pittsburgh TomNovember 28, 2018 at 2:10 PM

    Thank you, yes. Just trying to keep degree labeling straight.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Elliott_TraderNovember 28, 2018 at 3:05 PM

    So far, the 'big boys' just missed the gap fill at 2,736.27; I 'only' use the close-to-open gaps. I do not use the low-to-high gaps. I would keep an eye on the mid-line of the channel shown above. Trading below it would likely signify 'at least' a corrective wave in progress. I'll be taking the rest of the day off.

    ReplyDelete

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