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| S&P500 Cash Index - 2 Hr - Trend Lines |
If there is to be a minute wave ((iii)) lower, it must soon begin to show acceleration lower. If that occurs, prices would stay below the red acceleration line. Acceleration in market analysis means a very similar thing to what it means in physics. In physics it means that more distance is covered in less and less time. In market analysis, it means more price is covered in less & less time, whether upward or downward.
So, this is another example of time analysis in Elliott Wave.
If prices only poke at the bottom, and rebound above the red line, then we must consider the alternate flat for minute ((ii)) to take more time to correct minute wave ((i)). That has not happened yet, and we will only address that alternate if it does.
Meanwhile, prices are currently in the black channel lower, and have again pierced the mid-channel line. Within this downward wave, prices have gapped lower a couple of times, but the gaps have provided nothing definitive yet.
The Elliott Wave Oscillator (EWO) is still mid-range. There isn't a sign of acceleration lower, yet. But there could be.
Bottom line: as long as prices stay below the red line, then the primary count remains minute ((iii)) downward. And, if they return under the mid-channel line, and stay below the mid-channel line, this would be more evidence of a likely minute ((iii)), lower, in progress.
Have a great holiday!
TraderJoe
Looking at the futures dropping and wondering what a move directly lower does to the Expanding LD on the 5 min chart? do we then have a very small impulse wave 1 down and a flat wave 2 ending at the top of the 3pm 5 min bar?
ReplyDeleteCash and futures are in conflict. There is no expanding diagonal in cash as I proposed. While there 'could have' been one in futures, there can't be one in cash. I missed that the second wave is higher than the start of the first wave. Not allowed. I just missed it over the holiday.
DeleteSo, plot the five-minute futures, and look for the fourth wave as a triangle in the futures. That seems to work better. Not sure about cash yet.
Nope. Sorry. Still a leading diagonal. I checked with my official chart service, and there was no higher high. It's a bad quote with the free on-line chart service.
DeleteThanks Joe,
ReplyDeleteMakes you human and makes you credible.
Enjoy the day!
Nope. Sorry. Still a leading diagonal. I checked with my official chart service, and there was no higher high. It's a bad quote with the free on-line chart service.
DeleteHappy holidays Joe and I would really like to thank for all your daily posts. They have really helped to improve my wave counting and understanding over the last many months. I was wondering if you have or belong to an Elliott Wave room and if it was accepting new members? If so, please let me know all the particulars. Again I want to thank you for all that you do.
ReplyDeleteBrett Walker
bwalker@surewest.net
Sorry. At this time there is no chat room.
DeleteExactly, I'm looking for a move like Oct 10th.
ReplyDeleteThat's an 88 point move on a holiday shortened session. That would be pretty unusual. May I ask what you are basing this on?
DeleteIf we are in a wave 3 of 3, we should see acceleration to the downside like he mentioned in the post. I don't expect this move to happen, because sentiment is already very bearish but it's something to look out for in case it does. I'm expecting a bounce around 2556 to form an expanded flat, before we head much lower.
ReplyDeleteSo you're getting confusing now. Expecting a drop, not expecting a drop, going to drop and then bounce into an expanded flat. Flats in a second wave position are a somewhat rare thing. Again are you basing this on any measurements or is this just conjecture?
DeleteSo far the current down move has an A/B or 1/2 count and we are either in a C or 3rd wave. If this is a 3rd wave expect an acceleration, if not this is a zigzag for a larger B of a flat. I will let the market show it's hand in the coming days.
DeleteIf in fact we are in minute 3, it is more likely that we are in wave 4 or 5 of a wave smaller than sub minuette and will complete sub minuette 1 of minuette 3 around 2600 and then bounce to the 2658 - 2692 range for sub minuette 2 and then really go down hard in sub minuette 3.
DeleteI understand the count possibilities. My point's are first that a flat in a wave 2 position is not impossible but is against the odds, and second you are expressing expectations without any empirical basis.
DeleteA move to 2600 would invalidate a sub minuette 1 of minuette 3 because based on what the author of this site has told us, you can't have the first subwave greater than the entire preceding wave of one greater degree.
DeleteAs I said, a move to around 2600 was not a prediction of an exact level. Based on the internal waves down from 2747 (minuette 2) the most 5 can travel is to 2605 (if my count is correct) which would leave it 1 pt shy of minute 1. Technically we would only have to break 2632 to have a completed impulse. The problem is I'm not sure whether the 3rd wave in the smaller than subminuette series ended on the Tues 10Am 30 min bar or at the 3PM 30 min bar. If it was 3PM we could still see a higher bounce for wave 4 which would cause a higher terminal point for wave 5.
ReplyDeleteHello Joe, I would like to ask a question on alternating wave patterns (i.e. general EW topic). In a zig-zag correction, is it allowed that we have a contracting diagonal for wave A and an expanding diagonal for wave C?
ReplyDeleteHope you have an enjoyable holiday! Regards.
Hi migration. Good question. If A is any type of diagonal, then by the principle of alternation, C should not be any type of diagonal. And vice-versa.
DeleteThanks Joe! Happy Black Friday!
DeleteThe E-minis seem to incline towards A/B/C flat and not the 3rd of 3rd.
ReplyDeleteSorry. You just can not say that yet. First, the 90% level was not even hit yet, and, for a flat, it must be by 'rule', and second a 38% upward retrace has not even been made yet. You can apply your 'opinion'. I only apply measurement.
DeleteI'm confused by the discussion of degree above for the following reason. If minute wave ((i)) down is from 2,940 to 2,603, a difference of 337 points, then that means in theory minuet (i) can be up to 336 points in length. So, from a recent three-wave high of 2,815, then that means minuet (i) can travel down to (2,815 - 336) = 2,479 or 2,480ish.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteJoe, I was discussing the down move from the top of minuette ii at 2747. In looking at the wave it looks to small to be all of minuette iii. I was therefore considering impulse in the making as sub minuette 1 of minuette 3 of minute 3 So I dropped 1 degree. This may not be correct. Fatima was correctly pointing out the limitations of sub minuette i not being allowed to be larger than minuette i which would limit it to 2605.
DeleteDelete