Friday, November 16, 2018

Even Shorter Post Today

Market Outlook: Likely Long Term Top Identified, Now likely in Minuet (ii), up
Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed higher; NAS/NDX, DJTrans lower
SPX Candle: Higher High, Lower Low, Higher Close - Bullish White Soldier
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)

Here is the hourly chart. The minimum objective for a c wave of minuet (ii) has been reached. Because of the length of the b wave, this upward wave can fail. It doesn't have to, but it can.

S&P500 Cash Index - Hourly - Minimum for c of (ii) Obtained

There could be one more up wave beginning early Monday. But this is absolutely not required. If there is, it is because there is one more wave to finish in a diagonal upward, to finish the c wave. If you have questions about this count please see the chart that was added as a post script (P.S.) to yesterday's post. If you wish to know more about how the count developed in real time, please read all of yesterday's comments. We followed all the rules and guidelines, as well as the degree considerations, and the contracting diagonal was the result.

Will it be a leading or an ending diagonal? Apart from it's 3-3-3-3-3 structure, there is only one way to tell that I know of.

Thanks and have a good start to your weekend,


  1. Have an awesome weekend Joe!! And thanks!

  2. Joe,
    Thank you so much for your observations this week, both real time and end of day. They have been invaluable as well as instructive. Have a great weekend, you deserve it.

    1. Thanks PT. Thanks for listening observing and being patient.


  3. would this work for an exapanding diagonal it could have
    stopped at 2743.68 or hit the 100 mm or rise above but not get
    to 2770.

    0 9:36 11/15
    a 11:04 11/15
    b 12:08 11/15
    (A) 13:32 11/15
    (B) 8:36 11/16
    1 9:36 11/16
    2 11:30 11/16
    3 11:48 11/16
    4 12:42 11/16
    5 (C) 14:28 11/16

    1. I'm confused; an (A), (B), (C) in your count above is a zigzag, not an expanding diagonal.

    2. forgive me I am new to this. I think then I misspoke and the (C) would be the expanding diagonal. so it would be an expanding diagonal from (B). the larger wave is abc, the zigzag.

    3. No. It should all be five waves up.

    4. Is that because the abc flat is a 3-3-5 structure?

      is it out of the question that the (ii) in your chart can't be a wxy as a flat?

      in a wxy flat since that is 3-3-3 would my y leg work? it would start at my 0, 9:36 11/15, which is labeled b on your chart.

  4. What if SPY 267.7 is wave 2 and we are headed up in 3?

    1. I can't stop it if it does, and wouldn't try to. But, from an Elliott Wave standpoint has 'too many levels of complexity'. It could happen, but as it is not the most straight-forward wave count, it fights the odds - 'at this time'.

  5. It seems to be that would be impossible to determine until we have some signal from price. The leading diagonal would have to break the wedge's lower trend-line then reverse and take out the wave 5 high to confirm the bullish case. The diagonal would have a better look with the final leg up of the fifth wave ZZ with a throw-over of the upper diagonal boundary to complete the pattern, which would be loverly!
    Have a great week-end all!

  6. "Because of the length of the b wave, this upward wave can fail. It doesn't have to, but it can"
    How does the wave length of b predict the possible failure of c?
    Thanks Joe have a great weekend.

    1. When B is much longer than A, is very possible that C fail to be longer that B. It is not a rule, is a guide.

  7. Hello Joe, thanks a lot for sharing and teaching us Elliott Wave theory and technique. I've have been learning a lot from you and I appreciate your efforts.

    Here's my alternate counts. Instead of counting this upward correction as an expanded flat, I'm counting it as a double zig-zag. Reason for giving expanded flat a lower possibility is because downward wave b retraces more than 168% of wave a.

    My starting point for double zig-zag (upwards) is 2670.75, where your wave c started.

    Alternate count 01:

    Alternate count 02:

    1. Joe, would be glad if you can help to check if my count is possible. Or if any rules are violated.

      Thanks and have a wonderful weekend.