Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed mixed
SPX Candle: Lower High, Higher Low, Higher Close - Inside Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)
Contrary to the gentleman reader of this blog, who always seems to call 'em bearish, and told us there was "no way" to count the (a) wave up as a five-wave-sequence, and who would not answer questions regarding his terminal points for critique, I responded to him that he is generally incorrect and one of the poorer wave counters I have encountered.
So, here is the S&P500 chart, on a fifteen minute basis with each wave labeled. Clearly, the up move to (a) is a five wave non-overlapping impulse that has no degree violations in it.
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| S&P500 Cash Index - 15 Minutes - Impulse to (a) |
The up move clearly shows the expected zigzag, flat alternation in the wave sequence. Further, wave v is just slightly less than wave i, up to (a). There is also a clear triangle just prior to wave v, which signals the last wave ahead in the sequence.
Then, there are Friday's three-waves down, which I said could start a double-zigzag or a triangle, at the beginning of the day, and the three-waves up to -w at the end of the day. Contrary to our doomsayer's count of a double zigzag where the (a) is, and that today would be a big slide, S&P500 prices were actually higher. Imagine that.
Today brought a clear -x wave triangle, and a higher wave to a 78.6% retracement, like to a sub-minuette b wave.
Is this a larger pre-election triangle waiting on voting, turnout, and results? It could very well be. There are still two ways to make that minuet (b) wave down - either as the election triangle, or still as the double zigzag. Very hard to tell.
The reason I even mention the wayward reader on here is that I want to caution you that some people may be operating for their own purposes. He may be trying to get you to short, so the market will go down further and favor his positions. Watch out for people like that. Take a balanced view.
This blog does not offer trading or investment advice, nor do we sanction anyone's market opinion. We do not recommend that you take the advice of anyone who is not a registered investment adviser. We are not, and that is why we do not provide trading or investment advice.
Have a very good start to your evening and to your week.
TraderJoe
Another possible count is that the blue b has not finished, and will top 2760 tomorrow; then the blue w(c) of the flat will ensue to fill 2680 gap.
ReplyDeleteYes, i agree. A flat b is also possible.. just no telling about b waves.
DeleteMight want to be cognizant of today's x wave trianle. The upward sequence is 'quite' complex already.
DeleteYeah, I count w as zz, and x as double three; y will be a zz too, with the first IM completed. I can't imagine a steady triangle tomorrow; also, the gap below is too wide to ignore. (nice work, BTW).
DeleteInteresting. I have been using the 2700 pivot(closing basis) to manage my short term positions. If the open gap provides strong support and the C wave fails to take it out I would consider that quite bullish short term. The equivalent pivot is DJIA 25K. I think we need to see a close beneath both for confirmation of the short term post election bearish case as we could get a larger C up with only an intra-day breach of the pivots. Interesting week ahead!
Deletexxww...Does appear that the triple zigzag is underway. Currently it is diverging with the EWO.
DeleteI sure thought the thrust from the smaller triangle would be sharply reversed. A larger one could be unfolding as election results are tabulated.
ReplyDeleteYes.
DeleteJoe, your count violates EW rules. If you zoom in your chart using a 5 min or 1 min chart, then you'll see that 2709-2757 is a symmetrical 5:3:5 abc, where both a and c = 24 points, and more specifically, what you are calling wave -3, from 2716.98-2735.06, only subdivides by 3 waves, and it also violates the 0-2 trendline connecting the 2708.85 and 2716.98 end points. In contrast, the simple count that violates no EW rules is that wave a was 2708.85-2735.06, wave b was a contracting running triangle that ended at 2733.56, and wave c was 2733.56-2756.55. Again, a standard 5:3:5 abc.
ReplyDeleteNo sir. You have no overlaps with which to prove your case. If you keep this up I will seriously think about 'deep sixing' your account.
DeleteBack to your Degree post on Sunday. You said minor 5 of Intermediate (5) is finished. What Primary wave was that circle 3 or circle 5? Where should I place the start of my Fibonacci ruler?
ReplyDeleteNow looking at the Elliott Wave Oscillator (weekly) which crossed below 0. That whole chapter in Bill Williams book "Balance line". I assume now that the EWO has crossed 0 and is indeed trading below the balance line (blue line). Balance line would be resistance.
Yes, the weekly EWO is below zero, currently at -24 (but the week is not over). The exact degree of wave is not a concern yet, until we get a lower low. After that I will address it. Most people will probably place the starting point for the Fib ruler at the exact high, but it would not be a mistake to place it at the one lower low.
DeleteThe weekly trend channel should also offer stiff resistance.
Just a piece of trivia.
ReplyDeleteMy charts only go back 4 yrs but the Oct monthly candle of 336 points eclipses February's 303 points for the largest candle in at least the last 4 yrs.
Cannot thank you enough for sharing your thoughts and taking the time to teach others - through example - of how to count waves. That type of give back is truly admirable. Done in a very professional way - thank you.
ReplyDeleteReading your work also gives me an idea of what is involved (time and level of effort) to understand how to count and chart using EWT. That's half the equation. Then you have the whole other topic of how & when to trade it. Whew! I need to find a way to simplify what to start with.
Thanks again
Welcome. I agree with the concern in the last two sentences.
DeleteYou should be a part of a contest first of the most effective blogs online. Let me suggest this blog!
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