This is what is in front of our eyes when one considers the ES rollover contract as an extension of the current December contract.
This is not the same as cash, but one has to wonder if there isn't a way (such as the triangle under consideration) by which the counts will synch up.
In the roll-over contract, by passing through the 6,136.25 level, this wave up is now 'longer' in futures than the wave up from 2020 to 2021. This wavelength is also sufficient to activate the expanding diagonal count shown in the second chart in this November post. Again, IN FUTURES. Cash needs to be verified.
Elliott_Trader: Whether or Not ...
Have an excellent start to the day.
TraderJoe
SPY cash 30-min: looks like the (d) wave in formation.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/b5zhquqA/
TJ
So other wavers who see this morning drop as wave e of a triangle are wrong? Your wave d suggests a bearish outcome once triangle compleres, whereas wave e here would suggest a breakout to new highs on deck next. Why is one more likely than the other?
ReplyDeleteTriangles can be tricky ("trading in triangles is treacherous") because they can possibly evolve either way. I'm only suggesting that if this 'is' a diagonal in cash then wave (4) should be a clear zigzag as 'a', 'triangle-b', 'c'. TJ.
DeleteHave to watch this closely. If it punches through the bottom prematurely, it would be the red alternate (w)-(x)-(y) double-combo failure. Otherwise, triangle still on track.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/vk8AGOEx/
TJ
Seems like a barrier triangle to downside..good call tj
DeleteUnless we had a complex c down now d up
DeleteES - Daily - today got down to the 18-day SMA on the lead month contract (Ira's guidelines) and bounced to fight a battle there.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/TIp0uJVV/
Can price have a reasonable expectation of making the lower daily Bollinger band? It can. Must it? No, it does not have to. But it is among 'reasonable' targets. A lot depends on whether price trades lower through the 18-day SMA or not in the overnight, or on the FED report out. It is very whippy out there in ES-land.
TJ
18D SMA still in uptrend---2:00 sends it higher ?
ReplyDeleteES 4-hr: the Ⓔ wave of the triangle is past 62% and is 'sufficient' for a triangle, but only a new lower low validates such. Also, the Ⓔ wave can become more complex if it wants.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/5qWkoMTk/
This is 'one way' to count since we are in the middle of the range, other things are possible.
TJ
A common Malady ---- "other things are possible"
Deletedon't be crass: things like 'triangle e' waves have happened. There are one heck of a lot of things to be aware of. So don't be snarky. TJ.
Deletewave 'e' could also extend to a triple; right now we have w-x-y in the futures. It could go to w-x-y-x-z; these are within the realm of the wave principle and as such I do not have blinders on. TJ.
DeleteMore like I was sharing the negative obfuscation of market action
DeleteThe act or process of obfuscating, or obscuring the perception of something; the concept of concealing the meaning of a communication by making it more confusing and harder to interpret.
Dow indexes should remain strong into 2025
ReplyDeleteES 4-hr: there is now a local higher high for a better Ⓔ wave as it now shows up in cash - which is what the red Ⓔ was based on.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/FtEu0KE1/
Can go a bit further if it wants.
TJ
Reminder: FOMC rate decisions scheduled for 14:00 ET, top of the hour, to be followed by press conference scheduled starting at 14:30 ET. TJ.
ReplyDelete(CNBC)
DeleteWASHINGTON – The Federal Reserve on Wednesday lowered its key interest rate by a quarter percentage point, the third consecutive reduction and one that came with a cautionary tone about additional reductions in coming years.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=TSH7
Delete"Voting against the action was Beth M. Hammack, who preferred to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 percent."
DeleteSPY cash 30-min: now below the 'a' wave low.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/61QBiYcj/
TJ
ES Daily - as a reminder IF this remains a 'contracting' diagonal, then wave (4) may not travel below 5,982 as shown.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/5HT5ucHI/
..and in this configuration, price can not form an expanding diagonal 'by the rules' because the wave (3) is shorter than (1).
TJ
SPY cash 1-hr: the prior gap lower has now filled, as shown.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/vRGEUMxp/
TJ
Now below a prior low.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/qwwS8bH2/
TJ
Great call, TJ
DeleteES Daily - initial target of the lower daily Bollinger Band has been reached and surpassed by a bit. Daily slow stochastic is 'not' in over-sold territory.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/yHbEFhsA/
Also, c = 1.618 x a as measured from the Ⓔ wave high on cash. Just beware "the falling knife". There is nothing bullish on the daily chart until/unless price recaptures the 18-day SMA, the "line in the sand". Ira would advise no more 'new shorts' here. And Smart Money might start taking 'some' profits at the low daily band.
TJ
Now below the 11/22 low (ES Mar only). TJ
DeleteLooks like the C arrived with gusto. Nicely presaged by the series gaps. Great call on the triangle! 🤗
ReplyDeleteThx, but of course, the downside wave has already exceeded typical "triangle targets" i.e. the 'widest-width-of-the-triangle subtracted from the breakdown point'. This suggests that it may 'only' be the (w), (x), (y) failure second wave and this might be a third. So, exercise caution on any wave counts until there is more clarity. TJ.
DeleteThe thought did cross my mind! If a third I expect it will fill all those downside gaps in short order.
Delete...or 1,2 i,ii
DeleteES 4-hr: now below 5,982 and invalidating a wave (4) lower of a contracting diagonal in the ES March front-month-only contract. Care and caution needed! The extreme roll-overs are playing havoc with the wave counts temporarily. TJ
ReplyDeleteThanks Tj. Top is in.
DeleteDon't mind the labeling but this seems a viable option of end of rally from Nov 22
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Y2zv3oPN/
we got to work on thjat election rally now inh the count. move is suggesting it was a v of 3 i suppose on some level
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ