The overlap needed to make the ES 8-hr chart below more intriguing as a contracting diagonal occurred today. We were finally able to count five-waves-down today with the new low and it appears to be just an a wave.
On this time scale the MACD is still pointed lower after a divergence with the higher high. Today's wave stopped - at least temporarily - at the dotted iv-to-② trend line shown. This trend line should be adjusted within reason to become the ②-to-④ trend line, once the end of the wave ④ is known. Note that the invalidation of wave ④ in a contracting diagonal would occur below 5,913. Price is not close yet.
If a fourth wave forms successfully, then a fifth wave up must remain shorter than wave ③ in price length. While wave ③ was required to go over the high again, wave ⑤ is not required to, but is very likely to.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
NVDA weekly - https://ibb.co/kgVGtd0
ReplyDeleteThanks TJ, always mesmerized by your analysis. Also for "While wave ③ was required to go over the high again, wave ⑤ is not required to, but is very likely to"-how do you conclude very likely to? Experience?
ReplyDeleteThis Guideline is published in The Elliott Wave Principle by Frost & Prechter, "In the contracting variety, wave 5 usually ends beyond the end of wave 3. (Failure to do so is called a truncation.)". So, a failure is possible, but not necessarily as likely because of the word 'usually'. IF you have not read and memorized this book, you will always be behind. TJ.
DeleteTJ, any update/thoughts on the pot DJI daily exp diagonal?
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/17yhk-
If this count is correct, shouldn´t wave 5 be very mature, with overshoot of the trendline and 5=1,618*0 to 3 net distance.
Thanks!
Thanks
i have iv as ii and we are still in circle 3. i dont think a diagonal is playing out becasue of the time consideratoins with 3 being longer than 1 in time and qqq making ath
ReplyDeleteThis is the way the ending diagonal formed in 2014 - 2015. 'Nothing' about it was as in the idealized diagrams. Wave three is longer in time than wave one. The retraces are 'not' 62 - 81%. Almost everything is wrong except the grinding overlapping wave that was eventually exceeded lower.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/zYxWOnZc/
If you wonder how I know this, I counted it in real-time and published it at the time. Still, you can be right. The jury is still out until the verdict is "in".
TJ
https://postimg.cc/gallery/wRJG0dN
Deletethanks - i added the nested count which just buys more time before the inevitable
Delete1 min chart expanidng diagonal off the high completed downward
ReplyDeleteSaw that one too. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ