No Clear Sign Yet

The count similar to the one below has already been shown for the daily ES futures roll-contract, and it has no conflicts or length violations. Today, I decided to look at the cash S&P500 to see if it fits the same bill. Bottom line: because of length differences, I think the cash index has to be counted as below because otherwise wave iii would become too short.

Given that the Neely 0 - ii trend line shows where the likely wave iv is, then there is no clear sign such as a triangle or diagonal that the count is definitely over. If a fifth wave, ⑤, does appear, then we'd have to see if wave ④ overlaps in diagonal fashion or not. Nothing requires it to. Yet, it could overlap and is even likely to overlap at this stage in the wave count. If it does overlap and forms a diagonal, then the target would be that wave iv would be exceeded lower in less time than the potential diagonal took to build.

So, the wave count currently remains on track in both cash & futures with this adjustment in cash, and we'll look to see what next week brings. Right now, the up wave from iv has a very three-wave look to it, and it suggests that a dip and then a new high remain possible. In any event, the same question as asked before remains: "is the large risk to the downside worth the likely minor upside gain?"

Have an excellent rest of the weekend.

TraderJoe