here's an issue I see already from past futures roll-overs: when this one rolls it will again likely have another nightmare 50 to 70-point roll-over based on where the March closed on Friday.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/QvfuL1dO/
It could change. But it's something to watch and be aware of. TJ
Don't you use generic contracts where you don't have gaps on roll? On Bloomberg es1, nq1, they are current active futures with historical contracts in proper series .price series can handle roll on variety of ways. Construct continuous contracts by back-adjusting or using ratio adjustments to eliminate gaps during rollovers. Roll positions based on liquidity metrics like volume or open interest, ensuring seamless transitions between contracts
i only use 'unadjusted' contracts on roll dates, as that is where the most volume is traded, and where prices 'actually' are on the roll. And the contracts are never back adjusted - as that would change past prices which is absurd. To eliminate the effect, I just use cash. TJ.
Past prices change every time a dividend is paid... Do you not adjust for those? Unadjusted prices show where contracts traded but include roll distortions. Adjusted prices smooth gaps, clarify trends, and still reflect key market dynamics and events. Thanks in advance
Here's the outside-range candle; loss of stochastic below 80. Candle has closed as a "hammer" or "knight's sword" candle. Candle is not a pattern yet and requires confirmation or invalidation.
..now a higher high invalidates candle as a downward pattern. Still watch for two candles to see if low of "outside-up" candle is exceeded lower, per Ira's guidelines. TJ.
Very good. I didn't see that one, because triangles usually don't 'end' a wave unless it's a 'b' wave. So, the likelihood is low unless you somehow see a 'b' wave in there. TJ.
You 'could' be right, but the 4 hr chart clearly 'looks' like it has an initial five-waves-down. I could be wrong.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/qQuq2Icv/
But then, usually upwardly pointing triangles don't have nearly flat bottoms. Those usually break to the downside. And if your style triangle plays out, wouldn't it be to (5) of ③ ?
The huge gap in the roll-over contract suggests that an impulse is possible. But we don't know if that will occur in cash or not (although it increases the 'chance' that it might). So, we remain open, patient and flexible until some measurements occur that can not be disputed. That hasn't happened yet. TJ.
I have not been satisfied with the long term counts for some time. As I stated the other day that on the yearly we have no diagonal or triangle to signal an ending move. I think this count makes some sense since 2009.
https://imgur.com/E4sKmC6
It would comprise of two moves, the QE move and stimulus checks/ppp move. The Japanification of America will take a few more decades before collapse.
I do believe that the odds favor an ABC and not a 123 because of the shallow retrace for what I have labeled as B. Either way we are still in the channel.
I said that in response to you, previously. That if you were considering 2018 as 1, and 2020 as 2 - which you were earlier- it could not be distinguished from A, B of a giant diagonal. You scoffed at me (well, a bit). TJ.
%202024_12_14%20(5_00_36%20PM)%20EW%20Count.png)
we agree we can get a larger first wave in 5 validated by degrees. Thanks again
ReplyDeletehere's an issue I see already from past futures roll-overs: when this one rolls it will again likely have another nightmare 50 to 70-point roll-over based on where the March closed on Friday.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/QvfuL1dO/
It could change. But it's something to watch and be aware of.
TJ
Don't you use generic contracts where you don't have gaps on roll? On Bloomberg es1, nq1, they are current active futures with historical contracts in proper series .price series can handle roll on variety of ways. Construct continuous contracts by back-adjusting or using ratio adjustments to eliminate gaps during rollovers. Roll positions based on liquidity metrics like volume or open interest, ensuring seamless transitions between contracts
Deletei only use 'unadjusted' contracts on roll dates, as that is where the most volume is traded, and where prices 'actually' are on the roll. And the contracts are never back adjusted - as that would change past prices which is absurd. To eliminate the effect, I just use cash. TJ.
DeletePast prices change every time a dividend is paid... Do you not adjust for those? Unadjusted prices show where contracts traded but include roll distortions. Adjusted prices smooth gaps, clarify trends, and still reflect key market dynamics and events. Thanks in advance
DeleteI don't accept the premise in the first sentence. TJ.
DeleteES 1 Hr: the non-rollover contract is getting some resistance at the red cloud. The roll over contract is above the prior high.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/HjEGK4tu/
TJ
Series gaps at this stage of trend an ominous sign imo.
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: outside range bar; watching to see how it closes. Chart behind. TJ.
ReplyDeleteHere's the outside-range candle; loss of stochastic below 80. Candle has closed as a "hammer" or "knight's sword" candle. Candle is not a pattern yet and requires confirmation or invalidation.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/LULam6lx/
TJ
..now a higher high invalidates candle as a downward pattern. Still watch for two candles to see if low of "outside-up" candle is exceeded lower, per Ira's guidelines. TJ.
DeleteSPY cash (30min) - this can still be in the context of a pre-FOMC triangle pointed out earlier. Wave (c) can still go higher.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/P79t3Fnb/
TJ
this move since the low on friday has 5 waves, including a 1.618 extnesion. its an impulse on ES already
Deletewe agree there are 'five-wave-segments' involved (see link). But if we're inside of a triangle the ES 'might' count like this since yesterday.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/8kioHxK8/
TJ
i see this : https://postimg.cc/SJFG2WkH on further inspection
DeleteYes. That is the best alternative until or unless the overlap warning indicated. TJ.
DeleteAny chance that your 5 of a could be abc of a of triangle pointing to break upward. Thanks. These waves can be quite tricky nowadays.
ReplyDeleteYou'd have to show me what you are thinking in a chart link. I don't quite get what you are saying. TJ.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/XmHIYjiC/
DeleteVery good. I didn't see that one, because triangles usually don't 'end' a wave unless it's a 'b' wave. So, the likelihood is low unless you somehow see a 'b' wave in there. TJ.
DeleteThis triangle would be 4th wave.. breakout will be 5th
DeleteYou 'could' be right, but the 4 hr chart clearly 'looks' like it has an initial five-waves-down. I could be wrong.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/qQuq2Icv/
But then, usually upwardly pointing triangles don't have nearly flat bottoms. Those usually break to the downside. And if your style triangle plays out, wouldn't it be to (5) of ③ ?
TJ
SPY cash 30-min: here's a chart update about 7-min before the close.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ano9KNNX/
TJ
What if the 5 waves is impulse, how can we know?
ReplyDeleteThe huge gap in the roll-over contract suggests that an impulse is possible. But we don't know if that will occur in cash or not (although it increases the 'chance' that it might). So, we remain open, patient and flexible until some measurements occur that can not be disputed. That hasn't happened yet. TJ.
DeleteI have not been satisfied with the long term counts for some time. As I stated the other day that on the yearly we have no diagonal or triangle to signal an ending move. I think this count makes some sense since 2009.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/E4sKmC6
It would comprise of two moves, the QE move and stimulus checks/ppp move. The Japanification of America will take a few more decades before collapse.
I do believe that the odds favor an ABC and not a 123 because of the shallow retrace for what I have labeled as B. Either way we are still in the channel.
This may be one way we get to the other side and alternate with the QE wave.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/T5wUB6z
I said that in response to you, previously. That if you were considering 2018 as 1, and 2020 as 2 - which you were earlier- it could not be distinguished from A, B of a giant diagonal. You scoffed at me (well, a bit). TJ.
DeleteI always have BBQ sauce in the fridge because I have to eat crow a lot.
DeleteES (Mar 2025 only) There is now overlap, as below.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/qKWJZPJC/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ