Today's down wave in the SPY cash 30-min chart, along with last night's stub of a down wave reached just over the 62.8% retrace level of yesterday's up wave as the Fibonacci ruler on the chart shows.
With this information and knowledge of the likely FOMC meeting next week these are the scenarios that one has to evaluate.
- Down wave goes beyond wave a to make wave c of the larger ④th wave zigzag. 35%
- A much larger in time b wave triangle forms waiting on the FOMC output. 35%
- A new higher high immediately forms on fearless Friday. 15%
- The down wave collapses to invalidate wave ④. 15%
I'd personally rate the probabilities of the first two options as slightly better than the last two options. Some suggested probabilities follow the bullet items. For the triangle, it would likely best form if the downward retrace stopped around the 78 - 85% level.
Between yesterday and today, there do look like five waves down in cash. So, that means five - or more - waves could easily follow lower. What complicates the analysis is the speed of these five waves is quite slow and did not themselves result in the new low below wave a. So, like a bad murder mystery, the market will have its way with our curiosity for the time being.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
The Dow has been down six days in a row. Support is about 500 points lower. I think year end selling has already begun. #4 is probable given the NDX might catch up to the Dow.
ReplyDeleteThis is my far out idea in more ways then one. On the yearly we have not seen a triangle or a diagonal and the move from 2009 has, in my opinion, gotten murky. I present the following.
ReplyDeleteLets use TJ's chart from the other day.
https://imgur.com/M8HCwPp
Now put 2009 next to the purple iv and that puts us currently somewhere near the circled 1. Both of these first moves, 8hr and yearly, in the diagonal are strong moves after flats.
Sadly, my kids would have to place the short trade because I may not make it that long.
Lol! I almost posted yesterday that the island reversal was almost certainly a bullish sign! 😁
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/17-ip0
ReplyDeleteDuring bigger degree (2)/(4) we also saw the biggest EPS drawdowns since 09 bottom.
No overlap btw (2)/(4), wich in one of few hard EW rules. Why ignore this count
Delete(1)/(4) **
DeleteMaximum length in pts for (5) is aprox 47400 since (3) can´t be the shortest. Interesting that we got some sort of reaction here.
Delete(3) and (5) internals
https://invst.ly/17-iy0
https://invst.ly/17-j8l
Very uggly impulse (5). But would that be so strange if we are very high up in the wave count?!
Don´t know which wave should be considered the ext wave, maybe 5 since it´s both longer in time and price compared to 1.
I think the negatives on that count were time considerations with 3 being the shortest in time but with all the monetary shenanigans that have gone on it has to be a contender.
DeleteES 1 Hr - here is some geometry as of this morning. Nothing confirmed yet.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/MHoNA9Dv/
TJ
..breakdown to 6,050 while I was charting! TJ
DeleteFinally starting to speed up on the downside. It's been a while
ReplyDeleteNow a 90% + wave lower; either b wave of Flat, or b wave of barrier triangle or '3' wave of 'c' wave lower. It's a guessing game at this point. TJ
ReplyDeleteAll looks corrective to me. Assuming big triangle of some dirty unfolding..
ReplyDeleteNQ looks to have impulsed down from this mornings high to me. Selling the banks GS
ReplyDeleteDow can't rally. Just what I see. fwiw
Gap support a cautionary tale for bears imo....
DeleteLooks corrective back up a,b,c but.....
DeleteIf correct, putative 3rd down should decisively close open gaps.
DeleteNot to mention the UST30 looks like....
ReplyDelete/ZB looks like some short of x wave. I think a correction to the down wave on the monthly needs more time.
DeleteWhy buy UST's asset inflation is historic. Congress passed the NDAA blocking Trump and inflation is up. The Congress can't see the cliff. The fundamentals stink but that's nothing new. X wave,anything is possible.
Deletei think we have wrapped a fourth wave and still in athrid wave of wame degree of election rally
ReplyDeleteHow many big players want to hold their massive profits for another year? Next week will be the last week to sell into a diminishing liquidity EOY market.
ReplyDeletetes
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/63CX22YP/
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ