How come no one is talking about the Yen carry-trade now? Why have all the news stories gone now about how this will disrupt the stock market? Yet back in my Aug18th post which you can view at this LINK, I said it was possible the Japanese Yen was making a contracting ending diagonal, and it may not have finished yet. Here is an update of that chart.
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| Yen (6J) Futures - Two-Weekly - Contracting Diagonal |
As you can see, a wave 4 did form that remained less in price than the corresponding wave 2. And now the only questions are: 1) will a new low form to perfect the diagonal, and 2) will it travel low enough to make a new low without becoming longer than the length of wave 3 in price? Certainly, with over 100 candles on the chart, the Elliott Wave Oscillator (EWO) is sketching out the typical diverging bottom waves. That is wonderful to see.
Time will tell, but the title of this post really refers to the fact that the currencies tend to trend well, and if a diagonal forms, it like means that an upward break may trend for quite a while. So, interested wave students should become familiar with measurements: how far is too far? What needs to break to consider the diagonal done?
Good questions for those interested.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
I think in the spirit of.christmas or holiday, you should post a count before the markets open to help the lost souls like us. Now I am waiting for your observation abt if this is a c wave.or 😁
ReplyDeleteYou shouldn't be lost as I couldn't have been more explicit. Above the SPY 15-min EMA-34 is positive and below it is more negative. We've been above it all morning. But you couldn't know that until after the open. TJ
Deletereposting from last night regarding the current upmove : alternative is the c wave is i/ii and calls for a lot of strength?
ReplyDeletePossible 3rd...
DeleteIf a C we've hir measured bull flag target....
ReplyDeleteSPY 15-min: do we have an extended fifth wave within the much larger extended fifth wave? The extended wave here would be ⑤ of 'c' if the count is correct.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/FnSW2LqT/
We have excellent time-alternation within a corrective wave if that's how it turns out,
TJ
SPY 1-min: anyone recognize this pattern at the very high today?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/5rTxXdnc/
Gee.
TJ
i was looking at that right when you posted
DeleteThat's a thing of beauty.
DeleteThat's a bearish crab pattern.
DeleteTJ, I'd love to see a refreshed count from the Dec. 6th high. What I was calling wave 1 down has now been overlapped.
ReplyDeleteOn the ES roll-over contract, there is no high on Dec 6th (like maybe there is on cash?). The roll-over contract has its high on Dec 16th/17th. And so because of the 38% retrace and the divergence at the low, it certainly looks like five waves down.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/TldWbZMQ/
We can't say yet whether the five waves is the end of a move or the beginning of a move. So, we have to watch and count & try to prepare for the next move in either direction. In any event, in my book, there is nothing to the downside unless or until the lower boundary of the current up parallel is exceeded lower. Anything else has to be recognized as intentional contra-trend trading which is always risky.
TJ
Is the book complete and available
DeleteNot quite yet. Soon. TJ.
DeleteAll the recent comments on SPY must have fooled me then.
DeleteES 30-min: good morning. On the intraday wave-counting-screen, we are starting out with a break of yesterday's low.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/onjuqtX4/
TJ
ES 60-min: took a while, but the hourly overlap seems to clarify only a-b-c, up.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/DqtY62UQ/
TJ
SPY cash 30-min: in cash look for diagonal confirmation at the high below wave ④. It would exceed the low of the fifth wave diagonal (including failure) in less time.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/MUeiNGU1/
TJ
Yep. Diagonal exceeded lower in less time. If correct, we should not see new highs for quite a while.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/8WHLYPAy/
TJ
..also note both MACD and signal line are below zero. TJ.
Deletethats bold and confident thanks
Deletewelcome. TJ.
DeleteGood call Tj. Seems like we got 5 down this morning
ReplyDeleteNew ATH next week
ReplyDeleteHS in works.
DeleteLooks like it in S&P 500 and DJIA. Long candle tails in all the indices evidence of deketep pockets buying and that generally means higher prices ahead. I have seen so many bearish patterns negated not quite ready to rule out a new
DeleteATH. The complete absence of fear in this market suggests trouble ahead, new ATH or not.
You can rest assured they will do their utmost...lol! 😊
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ