The saying goes, "Bear markets die in a panic, bull markets die of boredom." Each day brings successive marginal highs with little-to-no reversal. This can generate a lot of complacency. The Elliott Wave count currently remains on track.
Some things to note on the above chart are:
- The pattern includes a parallel channel, and the Neely 0 - ii trend line.
- The pattern includes alternation between waves ii and iv
- The oscillator goes below zero for waves ii and iv
- The oscillator is currently diverging
- The larger numbered waves are on opposite sides of the EMA-34 for form & balance
The market is taking its time. We'll have to see if capital-gains selling or tax-loss selling figures into the picture shortly, and then whether there is a year-end rally.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
The III is longer in time than I already. Why do you expect overlap and wouldn't the only diagonal with all proper measurements be expanding ? and shouldn't the November election thrust count as a 5? Trying to get some insight and maybe learn a bit more thanks
ReplyDeleteThe election thrust 'can' be counted as either a "3", or a "5" with an extended fifth. Therefore, there is no 'correct' answer to this puzzle. But degree labeling leans a bit more towards the "3" because otherwise you quickly get that the one of the internal 'three' is longer than the first 'one'. However, to count the election wave as ①, and expecting higher waves - which my posts and comments suggested - was correct as there is a higher high for ③, so far. Yes, I see the timing is off on the ③, but that timing is not a 'rule'. It is a guideline. But we know that ③ is not a mistakenly counted 'b', because then 'b' would be longer in time than ① - which would be another degree violation. On the other hand, 3's are almost always longer in time than their corresponding 1's, and that's why we say if the next wave up is longer than the prior wave up, either the two waves are of the same degree or the current wave is of one higher degree. Lastly, we can not count an expanding diagonal unless/until ③ becomes longer in price than ① 'by rule' which it has not yet. TJ.
DeleteAre u reading circle 1 of 5 was abc. Thks
ReplyDeleteYes, that is one of two ways of reading it. TJ.
DeleteAlso wave 5 seems to have become longer than wave 3..if my scale is correct...
ReplyDeleteI'm using the ES futures (roll contract, no corrections) and it gives 'till 6,160. Link below.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/oZLsyD6A/
TJ
Noted thanks
DeleteThanks TJ. I bought 100 bitcoins for $18 in late 2012 and sold at $12.00 in 2013 after almost keeping it for almost 1 year. Never ever bought again. I asked Tony C in 2015 what mistake I made, he said its destiny and one day bitcoin will cross $100k. 10 years to his saying, he told to sell everything if it does.
ReplyDeleteThat would have been 10 million...damn
DeleteI did make $600 though. 18-12 :)
DeleteES hourly - outside candle, so far. Candle doesn't close until 11 am. Let's see if it has any power and beware of overlaps.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/17u15v
TJ
..hourly candle has closed and is a true bearish engulfing; this argues for watching the high; and seeing if there is a confirming candle lower.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/17u1vq
TJ
Look at the big picture, we are out of the big channel from 1929 to 2000
ReplyDeletePic?
ReplyDeleteApparent bearish reversal signals should imo be treated with great caution. Whether island reversals, shooting stars, or bearish engulfing candles, of late they have all been followed by higher prices. Confirmation absolutely needed.
ReplyDeletehaha .. another one of those two-tick bottoms; a whip-around higher and a whip-around down.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/17u6dv
Let's see where she lands. Hourly MACD still pointing down.
TJ
..interestingly, it was a "two-tick" difference at the recent high, as well. Something very wacky is going on.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/17u6k3
TJ
Just fyi - with new highs today, the NYSE advance-decline line is 1270-1512, or downside biased. The NASDAQ is a bit worse. TJ.
ReplyDeleteES / SPY (CFD) 1-hr. Prior lows, blue up arrows, giving way a bit; be careful 'might' be a whippy diagonal forming.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/17u93t
TJ
..as suspected; one way to count this is as a contracting diagonal, lower, given the wave structure we have now. As the chart says, "It could be leading or it could be ending. All it means is to monitor the high in case it is end of a fourth wave." Cash is shown.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/c8nWi59f/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ