Monday, May 20, 2024

TEFPM Applied to ZB

Here is the four-hour chart in US 30-Yr T-Bonds with The Eight-Fold-Path Method for Counting an Impulse applied so you can see that it does not just work in equities. There are about 100 - 105 candles in this chart.


Neely indicates an impulse should not exactly parallel. This one doesn't. The first wave, (i) only makes it to the mid-line of the channel. Wave (v) makes it to a channel extension from waves (ii) & (iv) placed on wave (iii) as Elliott indicates. The Elliott Wave Oscillator (AO or EWO) comes back to & below the zero line for waves (ii) & (iv) - as is often the case. Notice that wave (iv) is much longer in time than wave (ii). In this case wave (v) did not diverge on the EWO, and so it might just indicate only a larger minute wave ⓘ, up, at this point. However, the EMA-34 did travel through every significant numbered wave to show good form and balance in the count.

On the far right, the EWO has come back below the zero line, and, with five small-degree waves down, the correction of the up wave is likely in force. One must be clear - we simply don't know how the correction will form. It could be a zigzag, multiple-zigzag, flat, or combination. And that is where trading certainly gets tricky. Remember, the correction simply can take as much time as the up wave or more if it wants.

Have an excellent start to the evening,

TraderJoe

41 comments:

  1. Thanks very usefull!
    Regarding ES, I think your zz count from 2022 lows looks very promissing. But I would like to have your opinion on this ES interpretation, as a tripple zz/leading/ending expanding diagonal.

    https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_c8267448276c5f9ff68915f2078c513e.png

    Next chart is on the internals on (Z) where I also have your impulse shown.

    https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_9521eba787a0a71148fa8afc7d0d92b5.png

    I agree that it´s totaly valid to ocunt an impuls since there´s no overlap btw 1 and 4.
    But wouldn´t you say that the form and balance is inadequate, since 1 has very strong momentum, wave 3 pretty low momentum, and then momentum accelerates again in wave 5? Doesn´t this indicate that it might be a wave c?

    Thanks for all the work you do!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Regarding the weekly - why do you tell me, "useful", but then go on to ignore The Eight-Fold-Path Method? TEFPM says, "Chose the Time Frame for between 120 - 160 candles on the chart, or as close as you can get to it for 'The Wave of Interest". Less than ~90 NG, more than ~200 NG. It does not say, "Pick the Weekly, and figure it out." This is the chart that has the requisite number of candles - the two weekly.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/aXkhZfWQ/

      The EWO is currently diverging from price. The trend lines are 'three-touch' trend lines.

      Regarding the Expanding Diagonal idea, I have already shown where I think the expanding diagonal is in this post --

      https://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2024/05/slight-correction.html

      Regarding the impulse, did I not just write in this very post, "Neely indicates an impulse should not exactly parallel. This one doesn't. " Well, you didn't even do channel analysis on this wave. Here it is.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/Pm0BOLsM/

      Here you see even more evidence for the primary count. Wave minute-ii, circle-ii, is a short half-channel wave. Wave minute-iv, circle-iv, is a long full-channel wave. They show alternation not only in form, but especially in 'time'. And wave minute-v is currently stuck at the half-channel.

      So once again, Neely's observation is valid. The impulse does not channel exactly. Further, there is nothing that is 'reaccelerating again outside of the channel, that is." So far, minute-v has come back to the half-channel and that is a common interpretation.

      So, there is nothing 'currently' to change the answers provided by TEFPM. The question is, "Is there are valid alternate"? Perhaps. The V at the prior high is still a valid option. And this could be a 'hard-to-count' (B) wave up. I remain open to that one.

      TJ

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  2. What about NDX, it's different count?

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    Replies
    1. Nothing invalidates on the NDX until in excess of 20,000. I have showed you what to do; now 'practice' on the NDX. TJ.

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  3. ES 5 min Triangle watch. We would be in d.

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  4. TJ,

    From your chart yesterday, what stands out is a near perfect 1.618 extension and how well it channels as an impulse. It really cleans up that mess in the 08 crisis.

    Cant get the right number of candles.

    https://imgur.com/yiTumPV

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  5. ES 1-Hr: so far all I see are three-wave structures, near the high, and a flat EWO. 'Maybe' making a barrier triangle or a larger flat or expanded flat. It's The Fourth Wave Conundrum that happens at every degree of trend.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/Mr5OLCXS/

    Reminder: Tomorrow is FOMC Minutes @ 2 PM ET, and NVDA earnings after the close.
    TJ

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    Replies
    1. P.S. So far, the ES has not busted the high like the SPY did, briefly. TJ.

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  6. ES 4hr

    https://imgur.com/jHISvqu

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  7. Hard pressed to find a nicer barrier triangle on the ES. I am using a 45 min chart

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  8. On futures it looks like an ending diagonal and it may already be finished overnight. If true, the fed minutes will bring it down and nvda will not help much.

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  9. ES 30-min: just a reminder of the ES intraday wave-counting-screen with updated daily pivot points. The Boli's are now going dead sideways. The closest up & down fractals are shown, as is the prior 62% retrace.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/efMgItnv/

    This is provided as we head into the FOMC minutes at the top of the hour, as price now back down to the 18-per SMA (chart is behind), the neutral point on the chart.
    TJ

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    Replies
    1. ES ..first down (red) fractal, back, exceeded lower, price down to near S1. TJ.

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    2. ES second down (red) fractal, back, exceeded lower. (Chart still behind). TJ.

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    3. Here is that second fractal break lower. Remember, with the one-tick higher high last night, if a new low is made over yesterday's low, it might start an outside-day.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/xaJ7Kxzk/

      TJ

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  10. Could also head fake but hold 5305.5 for a c wave and extend this out a bit and make the b wave the complex one of the triangle.

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  11. I picture all of us in our 60's outfits at the roulette table with drinks and cigars!

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  12. ES new daily low. Likely outside-day. How does it finish? TJ

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  13. Replies
    1. Triangle looks to flat, doubt it holds. Hat tip to Roberto Mattheus.

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  14. 'Hawkish' FOMC Minutes Show 'Various' Members Willing To Tighten More, Fear Financial Conditions 'Too Easy' TJ.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Lol!;Gotta do something about those moribund auctions. Even the blind can see that!

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  15. Who wants to spin the wheel of bullshit today? Come on up, lets see what we tell them.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=TSH7

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. For more than 13 years, it was the era of "easy money". Now USA interest rates have returned to a normal level of ~5%. Look at the average on that cart, over the past 50-60 years.

      Why anyone would think that the Federal Reserve would have any interest in lowering rates until inflation is steadily tracking below their target is beyond my conception.

      It just seems like expectant pigs, waiting at the trough. We know what happens to them.

      Delete
  16. ES 30-min: after three-closes outside the lower band (odds about 3 - 5% of closing outside the lower band again), a close inside the band, and rise up to S1, again.. Now a doji candle.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/FB1SNiJ5/

    Whippy.
    TJ

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    Replies
    1. ES 30-min: here's the Doji candle, and the updated fractals and pivots. Getting really whippy out there. (Chart still behind).

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/SsGuOUKp/

      TJ

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  17. 2.618 extension from the top, this look like 4 and I bet they pump it into the close to 5310.

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    Replies
    1. no looks like they will go higher, unless that aftermarket spike is wave 5, I doubt it

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  18. ES 1min of the bottom is an Expanding Diagonal.

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    Replies
    1. What nastiness, stop hunting after hours.

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  19. Tj. Do you think spx can go back EVER to 3800.00 without any bad news ( covid, attacks) just on technicals ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What kind of question is this? Markets do not move on 'just technicals'. They move on fundamentals that the technicals incorporate. They also move on 'new information ', the needs of hedge funds and companies to make profits and the emotional whims of a mass of Reddit traders. So, I don't know what your question seems as an answer. And I don't know what is special about 3,800 unless you tell me.

      TJ

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  20. ES 30-min: price got to within 90% of the high. Possible B or X wave of a compound flat. Still, watch the close to see if get a hanging-man, or outside side day up/down.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/A7LtvPPe/

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. Interestingly ES has not taken out the low of 17 May 'but' MES has! We have some real discrepancies going on. TJ

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  21. In wave 3 on the 4hr it makes some sense were the low of the day was.

    https://imgur.com/8boavzm

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  22. A new post is started for the next day.
    TJ

    ReplyDelete